Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model for outpatient and inpatient episodes

This paper analyses whether or not tax subsidies to private medical insurance are self-financing by means of a structural approach. We construct a simulation routine based on a microeconometric discrete choice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changes on the utilisation of outpatient and inpatient health care services. We simulate the 1999 Spanish tax reform that abolished the tax deduction for expenditures on private health insurance using a representative sample of the Catalan population. Prior to this reform, foregone tax revenue arising from deductions after the purchase of private insurance amounted to €69.2 M. per year. In contrast, the elimination of the subsidies to private policies is estimated to generate an extra cost for the public sector of about €8.9 M. per year.Health care utilisation, structural modelling, tax reform evaluation

Measuring Loss Potential of Hedge Fund Strategies

We measure the loss potential of Hedge Funds by combining three market risk measures: VaR, Draw-Down and Time Under-The-Water. Calculations are carried out considering three different frameworks regarding Hedge Fund returns: i) Normality and time-independence, ii) Non-normality and time- independence and iii) Non-normality and time-dependence. In the case of Hedge Funds, our results clearly state that market risk may be substantially underestimated by those models which assume Normality or, even considering Non-Normality, neglect to model time- dependence. Moreover, VaR is an incomplete measure of market risk whenever the Normality assumption does not hold. In this case, VaR results must be compared with Draw-Down and Time Under-The-Water measures in order to accurately assess about Hedge Funds loss potential.Hedge Fund, Value-at-Risk, risk, performance, drawdown, under- the-water, normal returns, non-normal returns, time-dependence, ARMA, Monte Carlo, skewness, kurtosis, mixture of gaussian distributions, survival probability, styles, investment strategies

Anti-Ciudad como infraestructura.El sistema lineal continuo de Oskar Hansen

Durante las décadas de la Guerra Fría, el continente europeo se encuentra sumido en un complejo proceso de transformación, reconstrucción y planteamiento de nuevos proyectos políticos y territoriales. Esta situación es especialmente convulsa en la franja centroeuropea, donde en estados como Hungría, Polonia o la antigua Yugoslavia se daban profundos debates acerca de su identidad y su organización geopolítica. El progresivo aperturismo hacia los países occidentales, junto a la necesidad de modernizar en profundidad los sistemas e infraestructuras estatales, sirvieron como catalizadores para la proliferación de grandes proyectos territoriales y urbanos con el fin no solo de mejorar la calidad de vida de los habitantes, sino también de reforzar la posición de dichos estados en el continente y el resto del mundo. Este texto se centra en el caso de la República Popular de Polonia, donde estas cuestiones se trataron con gran profusión desde diversas ramas. Concretamente, la propuesta del arquitecto Oskar Hansen para un Sistema Lineal Continuo aúna la visión socialista del estado como agente productor del espacio con la participación individual dentro del colectivo –siguiendo su Teoría de la Forma Abierta y sus conexiones con el Team X- sobre un soporte arquitectónico : un modelo de “anti-ciudad” que abriría cuestiones que todavía hoy permanecen vigentes.During the decades of the Cold War, Europe was plunged into a complex process of transformation, reconstruction and the emergence of new political and territorial projects. This situation caused particular upheaval in the central European strip, where states such as Hungary, Poland and the former Yugoslavia were struck by a profound quandary as to their identity and their geopolitical organisation. As they gradually opened up towards western countries and understood the need to drastically modernise the states’ systems and infrastructures, this triggered the proliferation of large-scale land planning and urban planning projects with a view to not only improving the quality of life of their inhabitants, but also strengthening their position on the continent and worldwide. This paper focusses particularly on the case of the People’s Republic of Poland, where such issues were tackled profusely from a number of angles. As a specific example, the idea by architect Oskar Hansen of a Linear Continuous System combines the socialist vision of the State as a producer of space with the concept of individual participation within a group – following his Theory on Open Form and his connections with Team X – based on an architectural substrate: the model of an “anti-city”, which gave rise to issues that remain relevant to this day

A numerical method for nonlinear age-structured population models with finite maximum age

AbstractWe propose a new numerical method for the approximation of solutions to a non-autonomous form of the classical Gurtin–MacCamy population model with a mortality rate that is the sum of an intrinsic age-dependent rate that becomes unbounded as the age approaches its maximum value, plus a non-local, non-autonomous, bounded rate that depends on some weighted population size. We prove that our new quadrature based method converges to second-order and we show the results of several numerical simulations

Monte Carlo model of the uncertainty of SEA loss factors

Finite Element Methods are widely used to model vibro-acoustic systems, but as the modal density becomes higher this type of model becomes inaccurate and impractical. This is why in the high modal density region the use of Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) models has become increasingly popular. SEA has some obvious advantages such as its simple formal expression, being based on linear equation systems or the reduced number of variables involved. But SEA has drawbacks as well, such as the absence of local information or the necessity of frequency averaging. A key quantity in SEA models is the loss factor. This takes into account the energy dissipated within a given subsystem or when power flows from one subsystem to another. Even though analytical expressions exist for a number of subsystems of differing nature, the measurement of the loss factor is still advisable and a necessity for a large number of cases. The most commonly used method of measuring loss factors is the Power Injection Method. This method is based on the injection of power into every single subsystem in sequence while the energy in each subsystem is measured. In spite of its simplicity, there remain a number of problems where the accuracy of the results is influenced by various practical issues. In this paper, a Monte Carlo model is used to describe the uncertainty of a two subsystemproblem consisting of two planar elements connected along one side. The influence of the input variables is studied and the conditioning of the coefficient matrix that model the system is also taken into accoun

Las metamorfosis del trabajo: del trabajo al empleo (notas de lectura para una reconstrucción histórica-conceptual del trabajo)

Throughout the history of mankind, work has recognized various legal, anthropological and sociological forms and structures. In this iteration of morphological changes, the socio-legal reality that we distinguish contemporaneously with the word employment is the actual predominant stage of development of work. That is to say, that employment is a kind of generic category of work. In this investigation, we essentially review the evolution of work toward employment. That is our north. Historically and dialectically, the legal and social relationship to which we refer with the word employment perhaps is to be understood as a kind of work that overcomes slavery, servitude and other subspecies of vassalage; corporate work and any other form of work that cannot be developed in full freedom and legal equality. Being the typical legal normative form of dependent work from the Fordist era of capitalism, employment has evolved and continues to evolve, just like the capitalist system of production.A lo largo de la historia de la humanidad, el trabajo ha reconocido diversas formas y estructuras jurídicas, antropológicas y sociológicas. En este íter de cambios morfológicos, la realidad socio-jurídica que distinguimos contemporáneamente con el término empleo, es el estadio actual predominante de desarrollo del trabajo. Vale decir, el empleo es una especie de la categoria genérica trabajo. En esta investigación, esencialmente, revisamos la evolución del trabajo hacia el empleo. Ese es nuestro norte. Histórica y dialécticamente, la relación jurídica y social que referimos con el palabra empleo, puede ser comprendida como una especie de trabajo superadora de la esclavitud, la servidumbre y otras subespecies de vasallaje; del trabajo corporativo y de cualquier otra forma de trabajo que no pueda desarrollarse con plena libertad e igualdad jurídicas. Siendo la forma normativa jurídica típica del trabajo dependiente de la época fordista del capitalismo, el empleo ha evolucionado y sigue evolucionando lo mismo que el sistema capitalista de producción

Creation and diffusion of knowledge across creative industries in metropolitan areas : the cases of Mexico and Spain

The author thanks DGAPA of the National Autonomous University of Mexico for financial support (PASPA 2014-III and PAPIIT IN304214) to conduct this researchThis study proposes a spatial interaction model to analyze the level of creativity across Metro Areas (MAs) in a country. The model postulates that increasing creativity depends on the proportions of common knowledge and differential knowledge that MAs face when they interact with each other. We rely on an agent-based approach that allows incorporating GIS and spatial interaction between MAs under local and global network conditions. We chose the cases of Mexico and Spain to get a first glance of how the model works with real data. We find that the MAs of Spain (2001) and Mexico (2003) share the same level of common and differential knowledge in the creative industries and, that knowledge spillovers spread better under inter metropolitan conditions of interaction instead of intra ones. The simulations suggest that Spain is better suited to produce higher knowledge externalities under conditions that are not restricted by physical distance, which make policy intervention in Spain more effective to diffuse creative ideasEste trabajo propone un modelo de interacción espacial entre zonas metropolitanas (ZMs) para analizar el nivel de creatividad en un país. El modelo postula que la producción de creatividad depende del balance entre el conocimiento común y el diferenciado que ZMs enfrentan cuando están en disposición de interactuar. La investigación utiliza un enfoque de modelos basados en agentes que incorpora SIGs e interdependencia espacial de ZMs bajo condiciones de interacción global y local. Para tener una primera aproximación de cómo funciona el modelo con datos reales, se decidieron estudiar las zonas metropolitanas de España (2001) y México (2003). Los resultados arrojan que las ZMs de España y México comportan el mismo nivel de conocimiento común y diferenciado, y que las derramas de conocimiento son mayores a nivel de interacción inter-metropolitana que intrametropolitana. Las simulaciones también indican que España está en mejores condiciones para producir más externalidades de conocimiento bajo condiciones de intervención pública que no está restringida por la distancia físic