Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (∼20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh

Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100

The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1985-2005), the Sundarbans – mean elevation presently approximately 2 m above mean sea-level – is under threat from inundation and subsequent wetland loss; however the magnitude of loss remains unclear. We used remote and field measurements, geographic information systems and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three sea-level rise scenarios on the Sundarbans within coastal Bangladesh. We illustrate how the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is able to reproduce the observed area losses for the period 2000-2010. Using this calibrated model and assuming that mean sea-level is a better proxy than the SLAMM assumed mean lower low water for Mangrove area delineation, the estimated mangrove area net losses (relative to year 2000) are 81-178 km2, 111-376 km2 and 583-1393 km2 for relative sea-level rise scenarios to 2100 of 0.46m, 0.75m and 1.48m, respectively and net subsidence of ±2.5 mm/year. These area losses are very small (<10 percent of present day area) and significantly smaller than previous research has suggested. Our simulations also suggest that erosion rather than inundation may remain the dominant loss driver to 2100 under certain scenarios of sea-level rise and net subsidence. Only under the highest scenarios does inundation due to sea-level rise become the dominant loss process

Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change - A model framework

We describe a novel integrated modelling system aiming to approximate the impact of environmental change on farmers' livelihoods in Bangladesh.</p

Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports reflect evolving attitudes in adapting to sea-level rise by taking a systems approach and recognizing that multiple responses exist to achieve a less hazardous coast.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Designing adaptation policy trajectories

This document provides a description of the adaptation policy trajectories planned for use in the ‘Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation’ (DECCMA) model. It provides policy makers with insight into the impact of policy choices that specifically address adaptation to climate change. It explains the framework of elements that influence commitment to significant policy change and investment in adaptation policy trajectories. Interventions need to address drivers of vulnerability, disaster risk reduction, land use and ecosystem resilience. DECCMA’s geographical focus is on the Volta in Ghana, the Mahanadi in India, and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) spanning India and Bangladesh.UK’s Department for International Development (DFID

An international assessment of the adoption of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS (R)) principles across colorectal units in 2019-2020

Aim The Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS (R)) Society guidelines aim to standardize perioperative care in colorectal surgery via 25 principles. We aimed to assess the variation in uptake of these principles across an international network of colorectal units. Method An online survey was circulated amongst European Society of Coloproctology members in 2019-2020. For each ERAS principle, respondents were asked to score how frequently the principle was implemented in their hospital, from 1 ('rarely') to 4 ('always'). Respondents were also asked to recall whether practice had changed since 2017. Subgroup analyses based on hospital characteristics were conducted. Results Of hospitals approached, 58% responded to the survey (195/335), with 296 individual responses (multiple responses were received from some hospitals). The majority were European (163/195, 83.6%). Overall, respondents indicated they 'most often' or 'always' adhered to most individual ERAS principles (18/25, 72%). Variability in the uptake of principles was reported, with universal uptake of some principles (e.g., prophylactic antibiotics; early mobilization) and inconsistency from 'rarely' to 'always' in others (e.g., no nasogastric intubation; no preoperative fasting and carbohydrate drinks). In alignment with 2018 ERAS guideline updates, adherence to principles for prehabilitation, managing anaemia and postoperative nutrition appears to have increased since 2017. Conclusions Uptake of ERAS principles varied across hospitals, and not all 25 principles were equally adhered to. Whilst some principles exhibited a high level of acceptance, others had a wide variability in uptake indicative of controversy or barriers to uptake. Further research into specific principles is required to improve ERAS implementation

Blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves: what could be the scenario after a century?

The total blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves was evaluated and the probable future status after a century was predicted based on the recent trend of changes in the last 30 years and implementing a hybrid model of Markov Chain and Cellular automata. At present 36.24 Tg C and 54.95 Tg C are stored in the above-ground and below-ground compartments respectively resulting in total blue carbon stock of 91.19 Tg C. According to the prediction 15.88 Tg C would be lost from this region by the year 2115. The low saline species composition classes dominated mainly by Heritiera spp. accounts for the major portion of the carbon sock at present (45.60 Tg C), while the highly saline regions stores only 14.90 Tg C. The prediction shows that after a hundred years almost 22.42 Tg C would be lost from the low saline regions accompanied by an increase of 8.20 Tg C in the high saline regions dominated mainly by Excoecaria sp. and Avicennia spp. The net carbon loss would be due to both mangrove area loss (~ 510 km2) and change in species composition leading to 58.28 Tg of potential CO2 emission within the year 2115