Public Authorities as Defendants: Using Bayesian Networks to determine the Likelihood of Success for Negligence claims in the wake of Oakden

Several countries are currently investigating issues of neglect, poor quality care and abuse in the aged care sector. In most cases it is the State who license and monitor aged care providers, which frequently introduces a serious conflict of interest because the State also operate many of the facilities where our most vulnerable peoples are cared for. Where issues are raised with the standard of care being provided, the State are seen by many as a deep-pockets defendant and become the target of high-value lawsuits. This paper draws on cases and circumstances from one jurisdiction based on the English legal tradition, Australia, and proposes a Bayesian solution capable of determining probability for success for citizen plaintiffs who bring negligence claims against a public authority defendant. Use of a Bayesian network trained on case audit data shows that even when the plaintiff case meets all requirements for a successful negligence litigation, success is not often assured. Only in around one-fifth of these cases does the plaintiff succeed against a public authority as defendant

An incremental explanation of inference in Bayesian networks for increasing model trustworthiness and supporting clinical decision making

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to ‘hybrid’ BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted

A Progressive Explanation of Inference in ‘Hybrid’ Bayesian Networks for Supporting Clinical Decision Making

Many Bayesian networks (BNs) have been developed as decision support tools. However, far fewer have been used in practice. Sometimes it is assumed that an accurate prediction is enough for useful decision support but this neglects the importance of trust: a user who does not trust a tool will not accept its advice. Giving users an explanation of the way a BN reasons may make its predictions easier to trust. In this study, we propose a progressive explanation of inference that can be applied to any hybrid BN. The key questions that we answer are: which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction and through which intermediate variables does the evidence flow. The explanation is illustrated using different scenarios in a BN designed for medical decision support

Clinical Caremap Development: How can caremaps standardise care when they are not standardised?

SM, EK and NF acknowledge support from the EPSRC under project EP/P009964/1: PAMBAYESIAN: Patient Managed decision-support using Bayes Networks. KD acknowledges funding and sponsorship for his research sabbatical at QMUL from the School of Fundamental Sciences, Massey University

Bluetooth Smartphone Apps: Are they the most private and effective solution for COVID-19 contact tracing?

Many digital solutions mainly involving Bluetooth technology are being proposed for Contact Tracing Apps (CTA) to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Concerns have been raised regarding privacy, consent, uptake required in a given population, and the degree to which use of CTAs can impact individual behaviours. However, very few groups have taken a holistic approach and presented a combined solution. None has presented their CTA in such a way as to ensure that even the most suggestible member of our community does not become complacent and assume that CTA operates as an invisible shield, making us and our families impenetrable or immune to the disease. We propose to build on some of the digital solutions already under development that, with addition of a Bayesian model that predicts likelihood for infection supplemented by traditional symptom and contact tracing, that can enable us to reach 90% of a population. When combined with an effective communication strategy and social distancing, we believe solutions like the one proposed here can have a very beneficial effect on containing the spread of this pandemic

Tempting the Fate of the Furious: Cybersecurity and autonomous cars

The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE) have developed new aspects of their WP.29 agreement for harmonising vehicle regulations, focusing on regulation of vehicle manufacturers approaches to ensuring vehicle cybersecurity by requiring implementation of an approved cybersecurity management system (CSMS). This paper investigates the background, framework and content of WP.29’s cybersecurity regulation. We provide an overall description of the processes required to become certified, discuss key gaps, issues and the impacts of implementation on stakeholders, and provide recommendations for manufacturers and the authorities who will oversee operation. Putting the discussion into a broader theoretical framework on risk certification, we explore to role of non-academic sources to shape public risk perception and to drive, for better or worse, legislative responses