Multiple Systems Estimation for Sparse Capture Data: Inferential Challenges When There Are Nonoverlapping Lists

© 2020 American Statistical Association. Multiple systems estimation strategies have recently been applied to quantify hard-to-reach populations, particularly when estimating the number of victims of human trafficking and modern slavery. In such contexts, it is not uncommon to see sparse or even no overlap between some of the lists on which the estimates are based. These create difficulties in model fitting and selection, and we develop inference procedures to address these challenges. The approach is based on Poisson log-linear regression modeling. Issues investigated in detail include taking proper account of data sparsity in the estimation procedure, as well as the existence and identifiability of maximum likelihood estimates. A stepwise method for choosing the most suitable parameters is developed, together with a bootstrap approach to finding confidence intervals for the total population size. We apply the strategy to two empirical datasets of trafficking in US regions, and find that the approach results in stable, reasonable estimates. An accompanying R software implementation has been made publicly available. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

Book Reviews

Book reviews of: Song of My Life: A Biography of Margaret Walker. By Carolyn J. Brown Jackson: University Press of Mississippi, 2014. Author’s note, afterword, acknowledgements, illustrations, appendices, notes, bibliography, index. Pp. xi, 147. $20.00 cloth. ISBN: 9781628461473. Searching for Freedom after the Civil War: Klansman, Carpetbagger, Scalawag, and Freedman. By G. Ward Hubbs. (Tuscaloosa: The University of Alabama Press, 2015. List of illustrations, preface, prologue, appendices, notes, bibliography, index. Pp. ix, 223.$34.95 cloth, $34.95 ebook. ISBN: 978-0-8173-1860-4.) Choctaw Resurgence in Mississippi: Race, Class, and Nation Building in the Jim Crow South, 1830-1977. By Katherine M. B. Osburn. (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 2014. Acknowledgements, illustrations, maps, notes, index. Pp. 342.$65 Cloth, $25 Paper. ISBN: 0803240445.) Stennis: Plowing a Straight Furrow. By Don H. Thompson (Oxford: Triton Press, 2015. Acknowledgments, illustrations, notes. Pp. 176.$35 cloth. $14.95 paper. ISBN: 1936946467.) Corazón de Dixie: Mexicanos in the U. S. South since 1910. By Julie M. Weise. (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2015. Acknowledgments, appendix, notes, bibliography, index. Pp. 358.$32.50 paper, $29.99 e-book. ISBN: 9781469624969.) The Great Melding: War, the Dixiecrat Rebellion, and the Southern Model for America’s New Conservatism. By Glenn Feldman. (Tuscaloosa: University of Alabama Press, 2015. Acknowledgements, notes, index. Pp. x, 388.$59.95 cloth, $59.95 ebook. ISBN 978-0-8173-1866-6.) Baptists in America: A History. By Thomas S. Kidd and Barry Hankins. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015. Preface, acknowledgements, notes, index. pp. xii, 329.$29.95 cloth. ISBN: 9780199977536.) One Nation Under God: How Corporate America Invented Christian America. By Kevin M. Kruse. (New York: Basic Books, 2015. Acknowledgements, notes, index. Pp. xvi, 352. $29.99. ISBN: 9780465049493.) Confederate Generals in the Trans-Mississippi: Essays on America’s Civil War, Vol. 1, Edited by Lawrence Lee Hewitt with Arthur W. Bergeron, Jr., and Thomas E. Schott. (Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press, 2013. Acknowledgments, illustrations, maps, notes, index. Pp. xxiii, 302.$54.95 cloth. ISBN: 9781572338661.) Agriculture and the Confederacy: Policy, Productivity, and Power in the Civil War South. By R. Douglas Hurt. (Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 2015. Acknowledgements, maps, tables, notes, index. Pp. xi, 349. $45 paper. ISBN: 1469620006.) Womanpower Unlimited and the Black Freedom Struggle in Mississippi. By Tiyi M. Morris. (Athens: University of Georgia Press, 2015. Acknowledgements, illustrations, notes index. Pp. xvi, 237.$69.95 cloth, $24.95 paper. ISBN: 0820347302.

Exercise Blocks Ethanol-Induced Kappa Opioid Receptor Sensitization in Nucleus Accumbens and Ventral Tegmental Area

Exercise has been increasingly used as an adjunctive therapy in the treatment of alcohol use disorder (AUD). Despite this, the mechanism by which it influences the mesolimbic circuitry changes underlying alcohol addiction is not well understood. Previous studies have shown alcohol dependence to lead to upregulation of the Dynorphin-Kappa Opioid Receptor (KOR) system, making it a potential target for therapeutics. Thus, gaining a better understanding of these pathways will help develop evidence-based guidelines for integrating exercise into therapies for the treatment of AUD

Principles of Stakes Fairness in Sport

Fairness in sport is not just about assigning the top prizes to the worthiest competitors. It is also about the way the prize structure itself is organised. For many sporting competitions, although it may be acceptable for winners to receive more than losers, it can seem unfair for winners to take everything and for losers to get nothing. Yet this insight leaves unanswered some difficult questions about what stakes fairness requires and which principles of stakes fairness are appropriate for particular competitions. In this article I specify a range of different principles of stakes fairness (ten in total) that could regulate sporting competitions. I also put forward a theoretical method for pairing up appropriate principles of stakes fairness with given sporting competitions. Specifically, I argue that the underlying rationales for holding sporting competitions can provide useful guides for identifying appropriate principles of stakes fairness. I then seek to clarify and work through some of the implications of this method for a sample of real world controversies over sporting prize structures. I also attempt to refine the method in response to two possible objections from indeterminacy and relativism. Finally, I compare and contrast my conclusions with more general philosophical debates about justice

Genetically engineered minipigs model the major clinical features of human neurofibromatosis type 1.

Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) is a genetic disease caused by mutations in Neurofibromin 1 (NF1). NF1 patients present with a variety of clinical manifestations and are predisposed to cancer development. Many NF1 animal models have been developed, yet none display the spectrum of disease seen in patients and the translational impact of these models has been limited. We describe a minipig model that exhibits clinical hallmarks of NF1, including café au lait macules, neurofibromas, and optic pathway glioma. Spontaneous loss of heterozygosity is observed in this model, a phenomenon also described in NF1 patients. Oral administration of a mitogen-activated protein kinase/extracellular signal-regulated kinase inhibitor suppresses Ras signaling. To our knowledge, this model provides an unprecedented opportunity to study the complex biology and natural history of NF1 and could prove indispensable for development of imaging methods, biomarkers, and evaluation of safety and efficacy of NF1-targeted therapies

Development of a Protocol for Obtaining Biological Samples for Genetic Testing from Remote Individuals

Pharmacogenomic sequencing allows individuals to learn more about how they will respond to certain medications but requires shipping of a biological sample. One complication of sending biological samples to remote laboratories is stability. Blood generally yields sufficient quantities of high-quality DNA but requires a clinic visit. Saliva and buccal swabs are routinely used for DNA extractions, but the DNA quality is notoriously low due to the presence of bacteria in the mouth. Additionally, elderly individuals have difficulty producing enough saliva for testing, and the tubes contain several milliliters of liquid and shipping requires special considerations. Dried blood spot cards, which serve as an alternative to saliva and buccal swabs, yield high-quality DNA and ship easily, but may produce a lower yield. This project aims to determine which biological sample methods can reasonably be obtained from remote individuals