Contributions of greenhouse gas forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to historical Southern Ocean surface temperature trends

We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models’ inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models’ 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: 1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing; 2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend; 3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations

A predictive analytics model for differentiating between transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and its mimics

Transient ischemic attack (TIA) is a brief episode of neurological dysfunction resulting from cerebral ischemia not associated with permanent cerebral infarction. TIA is associated with high diagnostic errors because of the subjective nature of findings and the lack of clinical and imaging biomarkers. The goal of this study was to design and evaluate a novel multinomial classification model, based on a combination of feature selection mechanisms coupled with logistic regression, to predict the likelihood of TIA, TIA mimics, and minor stroke

Verification of Unstructured Grid Adaptation Components

Adaptive unstructured grid techniques have made limited impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic grid adaptation mechanics. Known differences and previously unknown differences in grid adaptation components and their integrated processes are identified here for study. Unstructured grid adaptation tools are verified using analytic functions and the Code Comparison Principle. Three analytic functions with different smoothness properties are adapted to show the impact of smoothness on implementation differences. A scalar advection-diffusion problem with an analytic solution that models a boundary layer is adapted to test individual grid adaptation components. Laminar flow over a delta wing and turbulent flow over an ONERA M6 wing are verified with multiple, independent grid adaptation procedures to show consistent convergence to fine-grid forces and a moment. The scalar problems illustrate known differences in a grid adaptation component implementation and a previously unknown interaction between components. The wing adaptation cases in the current study document a clear improvement to existing grid adaptation procedures. The stage is set for the infusion of verified grid adaptation into production fluid flow simulations

Determination of the Cosmic Distance Scale from Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Chandra X-ray Measurements of High Redshift Galaxy Clusters

We determine the distance to 38 clusters of galaxies in the redshift range 0.14 < z < 0.89 using X-ray data from Chandra and Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect data from the Owens Valley Radio Observatory and the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association interferometric arrays. The cluster plasma and dark matter distributions are analyzed using a hydrostatic equilibrium model that accounts for radial variations in density, temperature and abundance, and the statistical and systematic errors of this method are quantified. The analysis is performed via a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique that provides simultaneous estimation of all model parameters. We measure a Hubble constant of 76.9 +3.9-3.4 +10.0-8.0 km/s/Mpc (statistical followed by systematic uncertainty at 68% confidence) for an Omega_M=0.3, Omega_Lambda=0.7 cosmology. We also analyze the data using an isothermal beta model that does not invoke the hydrostatic equilibrium assumption, and find H_0=73.7 +4.6-3.8 +9.5-7.6 km/s/Mpc; to avoid effects from cool cores in clusters, we repeated this analysis excluding the central 100 kpc from the X-ray data, and find H_0=77.6 +4.8-4.3 +10.1-8.2 km/s/Mpc. The consistency between the models illustrates the relative insensitivity of SZE/X-ray determinations of H_0 to the details of the cluster model. Our determination of the Hubble parameter in the distant universe agrees with the recent measurement from the Hubble Space Telescope key project that probes the nearby universe.Comment: ApJ submitted (revised version

X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect Measurements of the Gas Mass Fraction in Galaxy Clusters

We present gas mass fractions of 38 massive galaxy clusters spanning redshifts from 0.14 to 0.89, derived from Chandra X-ray data and OVRO/BIMA interferometric Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect measurements. We use three models for the gas distribution: (1) an isothermal beta-model fit jointly to the X-ray data at radii beyond 100 kpc and to all of the SZE data,(2) a non-isothermal double beta-model fit jointly to all of the X-ray and SZE data, and (3) an isothermal beta-model fit only to the SZE spatial data. We show that the simple isothermal model well characterizes the intracluster medium (ICM) outside of the cluster core in clusters with a wide range of morphological properties. The X-ray and SZE determinations of mean gas mass fractions for the 100 kpc-cut isothermal beta-model are fgas(X-ray)=0.110 +0.003-0.003 +0.006-0.018 and fgas(SZE)=0.116 +0.005-0.005 +0.009-0.026, where uncertainties are statistical followed by systematic at 68% confidence. For the non-isothermal double beta-model, fgas(X-ray)=0.119 +0.003-0.003 +0.007-0.014 and fgas(SZE)=0.121 +0.005-0.005 +0.009-0.016. For the SZE-only model, fgas(SZE)=0.120 +0.009-0.009 +0.009-0.027. Our results indicate that the ratio of the gas mass fraction within r2500 to the cosmic baryon fraction is 0.68 +0.10-0.16 where the range includes statistical and systematic uncertainties. By assuming that cluster gas mass fractions are independent of redshift, we find that the results are in agreement with standard LambdaCDM cosmology and are inconsistent with a flat matter dominated universe.Comment: ApJ, submitted. 47 pages, 5 figures, 8 table

Technology and international climate policy

Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology

Long-Term Modeling of Wind Energy in the United States

An improved representation of wind energy has been developed for the ObjECTS MiniCAM integrated assessment modeling framework. The first version of this wind model was used for the CCTP scenarios, where wind accounts for between 9% and 17% of U.S. electricity generation by 2095. Climate forcing stabilization policies tend to increase projected deployment. Accelerated technological development in wind electric generation can both increase output and reduce the costs of wind energy. In all scenarios, wind generation is constrained by its costs relative to alternate electricity sources, particularly as less favorable wind farm sites are utilized. These first scenarios were based on exogenous resource estimates that do not allow evaluation of resource availability assumptions. A more detailed representation of wind energy is under development that uses spatially explicit resource information and explicit wind turbine technology characteristics

The Value of End-Use Energy Efficiency in Mitigation of U.S. Carbon Emissions

This report documents a scenario analysis exploring the value of advanced technologies in the U.S. buildings, industrial, and transportation sectors in stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The analysis was conducted by staff members of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), working at the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in support of the strategic planning process of the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). The conceptual framework for the analysis is an integration of detailed buildings, industrial, and transportation modules into MiniCAM, a global integrated assessment model. The analysis is based on three technology scenarios, which differ in their assumed rates of deployment of new or presently available energy-saving technologies in the end-use sectors. These technology scenarios are explored with no carbon policy, and under two CO2 stabilization policies, in which an economic price on carbon is applied such that emissions follow prescribed trajectories leading to long-term stabilization of CO2 at roughly 450 and 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv). The costs of meeting the emissions targets prescribed by these policies are examined, and compared between technology scenarios. Relative to the reference technology scenario, advanced technologies in all three sectors reduce costs by 50% and 85% for the 450 and 550 ppmv policies, respectively. The 450 ppmv policy is more stringent and imposes higher costs than the 550 ppmv policy; as a result, the magnitude of the economic value of energy efficiency is four times greater for the 450 ppmv policy than the 550 ppmv policy. While they substantially reduce the costs of meeting emissions requirements, advanced end-use technologies do not lead to greenhouse gas stabilization without a carbon policy. This is due mostly to the effects of increasing service demands over time, the high consumption of fossil fuels in the electricity sector, and the use of unconventional feedstocks in the liquid fuel refining sector. Of the three end-use sectors, advanced transportation technologies have the greatest potential to reduce costs of meeting carbon policy requirements. Services in the buildings and industrial sectors can often be supplied by technologies that consume low-emissions fuels such as biomass or, in policy cases, electricity. Passenger transportation, in contrast, is especially unresponsive to climate policies, as the fuel costs are small compared to the time value of transportation and vehicle capital and operating costs. Delaying the transition from reference to advanced technologies by 15 years increases the costs of meeting 450 ppmv stabilization emissions requirements by 21%, but the costs are still 39% lower than the costs assuming reference technology. The report provides a detailed description of the end-use technology scenarios and provides a thorough analysis of the results. Assumptions are documented in the Appendix

Verification of Unstructured Grid Adaptation Components

Adaptive unstructured grid techniques have made limited impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic grid adaptation mechanics. Known differences and previously unknown differences in grid adaptation components and their integrated processes are identified here for study. Unstructured grid adaptation tools are verified using analytic functions and the Code Comparison Principle. Three analytic functions with different smoothness properties are adapted to show the impact of smoothness on implementation differences. A scalar advection-diffusion problem with an analytic solution that models a boundary layer is adapted to test individual grid adaptation components. The scalar problems illustrate known differences in a grid adaptation component implementation and a previously unknown interaction between components. Laminar flow over a delta wing is verified with multiple, independent grid adaptation procedures to show consistent convergence to fine-grid forces and pitching moment