Modeling Approach for Earthen Dam Breach Analysis in North Yamar Dam, Myanmar

In case a Dam breach occurs, it is hazardous for lives, properties and environment in downstream extents. Dam break studies are necessary for forecasting of flood disaster and evaluation of hydrological safety among dams. To investigate possible inundation extents and breach outflow, an experimental study for both overtopping and piping failures was performed in the North Yamar Lower Dam constructed across Yamar creek in Pale township of Sagaing Region. This study is to examine the applicability of hydraulics and hydrologic models, HEC-RAS (USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis system) and HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System) upon Dam Break. One-dimensional HEC-RAS model was applied in collaboration with HEC-HMS model to predict the potential flood risk due to different breach modes. The extreme hydrological event such as possible maximum flood event (PMF) was considered for the overtopping breach and sunny day piping event for piping breach. Dam Breach outflow hydrographs were generated by HEC-HMS individually and imported them into HEC-RAS for downstream flood estimation. The unsteady mixed flow simulations were performed by HEC-RAS and ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) was used to produce an inundation map based on simulated water surface elevations and extents. The models were calibrated based on the historical floods happened in North Yamar Dam from 2005 to 2017. By scenario analysis for with and without emergency spillway, overtopping breach influenced on different consequences whereas piping affected not much differences. The probable peak discharge would be over 7,000 m3/s and 3,800 m3/s respectively

Cost effectiveness and resource allocation of Plasmodium falciparum malaria control in Myanmar: a modelling analysis of bed nets and community health workers.

BACKGROUND: Funding for malaria control and elimination in Myanmar has increased markedly in recent years. While there are various malaria control tools currently available, two interventions receive the majority of malaria control funding in Myanmar: (1) insecticide-treated bed nets and (2) early diagnosis and treatment through malaria community health workers. This study aims to provide practical recommendations on how to maximize impact from investment in these interventions. METHODS: A simple decision tree is used to model intervention costs and effects in terms of years of life lost. The evaluation is from the perspective of the service provider and costs and effects are calculated in line with standard methodology. Sensitivity and scenario analysis are undertaken to identify key drivers of cost effectiveness. Standard cost effectiveness analysis is then extended via a spatially explicit resource allocation model. FINDINGS: Community health workers have the potential for high impact on malaria, particularly where there are few alternatives to access malaria treatment, but are relatively costly. Insecticide-treated bed nets are comparatively inexpensive and modestly effective in Myanmar, representing a low risk but modest return intervention. Unlike some healthcare interventions, bed nets and community health workers are not mutually exclusive nor are they necessarily at their most efficient when universally applied. Modelled resource allocation scenarios highlight that in this case there is no "one size fits all" cost effectiveness result. Health gains will be maximized by effective targeting of both interventions

Geographic Resource Allocation Based on Cost Effectiveness: An Application to Malaria Policy.

Healthcare services are often provided to a country as a whole, though in many cases the available resources can be more effectively targeted to specific geographically defined populations. In the case of malaria, risk is highly geographically heterogeneous, and many interventions, such as insecticide-treated bed nets and malaria community health workers, can be targeted to populations in a way that maximises impact for the resources available. This paper describes a framework for geographically targeted budget allocation based on the principles of cost-effectiveness analysis and applied to priority setting in malaria control and elimination. The approach can be used with any underlying model able to estimate intervention costs and effects given relevant local data. Efficient geographic targeting of core malaria interventions could significantly increase the impact of the resources available, accelerating progress towards elimination. These methods may also be applicable to priority setting in other disease areas

Cost of treating inpatient falciparum malaria on the Thai-Myanmar border.

BACKGROUND: Despite demonstrated benefits and World Health Organization (WHO) endorsement, parenteral artesunate is the recommended treatment for patients with severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria in only one fifth of endemic countries. One possible reason for this slow uptake is that a treatment course of parenteral artesunate is costlier than quinine and might, therefore, pose a substantial economic burden to health care systems. This analysis presents a detailed account of the resources used in treating falciparum malaria by either parenteral artesunate or quinine in a hospital on the Thai-Myanmar border. METHODS: The analysis used data from four studies, with random allocation of inpatients with falciparum malaria to treatment with parenteral artesunate or quinine, conducted in Mae Sot Hospital, Thailand from 1995 to 2001. Detailed resource use data were collected during admission and unit costs from the 2008 hospital price list were applied to these. Total admission costs were broken down into five categories: 1) medication; 2) intravenous fluids; 3) disposables; 4) laboratory tests; and 5) services. RESULTS: While the medication costs were higher for patients treated with artesunate, total admission costs were similar in those treated with quinine, US$243 (95$ 190 (95% CI: 131.0-263.2) (P=0.375). For cases classified as severe malaria (59%), the total cost of admission was US$298 (95$ 284 (95% CI: 181.3-407) in the artesunate group (P=0.869). CONCLUSION: This analysis finds no evidence for a difference in total admission costs for malaria inpatients treated with artesunate as compared with quinine. Assuming this is generalizable to other settings, the higher cost of a course of artesunate should not be considered a barrier for its implementation in the treatment of malaria

Successful elimination of falciparum malaria following the introduction of community-based health workers in Eastern Myanmar: a retrospective analysis

Background: Myanmar has a large majority of all malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion. In the past decade, substantial progress was made in malaria control. The residual burden of malaria is in remote areas where currently recommended malaria elimination approaches are generally not feasible. In such hard-to-reach communities in Mon state, East Myanmar, Medical Action Myanmar introduced community health workers (CHWs) to deliver early diagnosis and treatment for malaria. We conducted a retrospective analysis to assess the impact of this intervention. Methods and findings: This retrospective analysis involved data collected routinely from a CHW programme in Mon state conducted between 2011 and 2018. A network of 172 CHWs serving a population of 236,340 was deployed. These CHWs carried out 260,201 malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to investigate patients with acute febrile illness. The median blood examination rate was 1.33%; interquartile range (IQR) (0.38 to 3.48%); 95% CI [1.28%, 1.36%] per month. The changes in malaria incidence and prevalence in patients presenting with fever were assessed using negative binomial regression mixed effects models fitted to the observed data. The incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria (including mixed infections) declined by 70%; 95% CI [65%, 75%]; p < 0.001 for each year of CHW operation. The incidence of P. vivax malaria declined by 56%; 95% CI [50%, 62%]; p < 0.001 per year. Malaria RDT positivity rates for P. falciparum and P. vivax declined by 69%; 95% CI [62%, 75%]; p < 0.001 and 53%; 95% CI [47%, 59%]; p < 0.001 per year, respectively. Between 2017 and 2018, only 1 imported P. falciparum case was detected in 54,961 RDTs. The main limitations of the study are use of retrospective data with possible unidentified confounders and uncharacterised population movement. Conclusions: The introduction of CHWs providing community-based malaria diagnosis and treatment and basic health care services in remote communities in Mon state was associated with a substantial reduction in malaria. Within 6 years, P. falciparum was eliminated and the incidence of P. vivax fell markedly

Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: developing an investment case

Background:; The Asia-Pacific region has made significant progress against malaria, reducing cases and deaths by over 50% between 2010 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, by strong political and financial commitment of governments and donors. However, funding gaps and persistent health system challenges threaten further progress. Achieving the regional goal of malaria elimination by 2030 will require an intensification of efforts and a plan for sustainable financing. This article presents an investment case for malaria elimination to facilitate these efforts.; Methods:; A transmission model was developed to project rates of decline of; Plasmodium falciparum; and; Plasmodium vivax; malaria and the output was used to determine the cost of the interventions that would be needed for elimination by 2030. In total, 80 scenarios were modelled under various assumptions of resistance and intervention coverage. The mortality and morbidity averted were estimated and health benefits were monetized by calculating the averted cost to the health system, individual households, and society. The full-income approach was used to estimate the economic impact of lost productivity due to premature death and illness, and a return on investment was computed.; Results; : The study estimated that malaria elimination in the region by 2030 could be achieved at a cost of USD 29.02 billion (range: USD 23.65-36.23 billion) between 2017 and 2030. Elimination would save over 400,000 lives and avert 123 million malaria cases, translating to almost USD 90 billion in economic benefits. Discontinuing vector control interventions and reducing treatment coverage rates to 50% will result in an additional 845 million cases, 3.5 million deaths, and excess costs of USD 7 billion. Malaria elimination provides a 6:1 return on investment.; Conclusion:; This investment case provides compelling evidence for the benefits of continued prioritization of funding for malaria and can be used to develop an advocacy strategy

Assessment of the Breaching Event, Breach Parameters and Failure Mechanisms of the Spillway Collapse in the Swa Dam, Myanmar

The spillway of the Swa earthen dam, constructed in Yedashe Township, Bago Region, Myanmar, collapsed suddenly on 29 August 2018 and resulted in a huge flood to downstream areas causing fatalities and the displacement of thousands of localities. This study aimed to assess the spillway breaching process in terms of the breaching parameters such as the average breach width, failure time and peak outflow, and failure mechanisms. We analyzed the event from the changes in the study site before and after the event and used water discharge conditions from satellite data and water level records during the event. We compared the breaching parameters using empirical equations from past failed events with tested scenarios for failure mechanisms, such as overtopping and piping. According to satellite data, 97% of the storage from the reservoir was discharged, and the peak breach outflow rate was 7643 m3/s calculated from the water level records. The selected empirical formulas were applied, and the estimated average breach widths, failure times and peak discharge from the formulas were larger in overtopping and nearer in piping than that of the observed data for the Swa Dam. Thus, a concrete spillway might impact the erodibility rate of breaching compared with concrete-faced and earthen dam types