Current and future CO2 emissions from drained peatlands in Southeast Asia

Peer reviewe

Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M) are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1) the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2) the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large. <br><br> Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods

Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands

This international scientific assessment has been carried out at the request of the Dutch Delta Committee. The "Deltacommissie" requested that the assessment explore the high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands. It is a state-of–the art scientific assessment of the upper bound values and longer term projections (for sea level rise up to 2200) of climate induced sea level rise, changing storm surge conditions and peak discharge of river Rhine. It comprises a review of recent studies, model projections and expert opinions of more than 20 leading climate scientists from different countries around the North Sea, Australia and the US

Screening and time trend study of decabromodiphenylether in birds

In 2001, Swedish scientists reported the presence of decabromodiphenylether (DBDE) in peregrine falcons. Subsequently, we have carried out an extensive study on the presence and time trends of DBDE in predatory birds and water birds in order to provide information on this subject for the European environmental risk assessment of DBDE. The UK Environment Agency and the Bromine Science and Environmental Forum (BSEF) initiated the study

Assessment of the potential forecasting skill of a global hydrological model in reproducing the occurrence of monthly flow extremes

As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using global hydrological models (GHMs) for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the GHM PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing the occurrence of past extremes in monthly discharge on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958 until 2001 is simulated by forcing PCR-GLOBWB with daily meteorological data obtained by downscaling the CRU dataset to daily fields using the ERA-40 reanalysis. Simulated discharge values are compared with observed monthly streamflow records for a selection of 20 large river basins that represent all continents and a wide range of climatic zones. <br><br> We assess model skill in three ways all of which contribute different information on the potential forecasting skill of a GHM. First, the general skill of the model in reproducing hydrographs is evaluated. Second, model skill in reproducing significantly higher and lower flows than the monthly normals is assessed in terms of skill scores used for forecasts of categorical events. Third, model skill in reproducing flood and drought events is assessed by constructing binary contingency tables for floods and droughts for each basin. The skill is then compared to that of a simple estimation of discharge from the water balance (<i>P</i>−<i>E</i>). <br><br> The results show that the model has skill in all three types of assessments. After bias correction the model skill in simulating hydrographs is improved considerably. For most basins it is higher than that of the climatology. The skill is highest in reproducing monthly anomalies. The model also has skill in reproducing floods and droughts, with a markedly higher skill in floods. The model skill far exceeds that of the water balance estimate. We conclude that the prospect for using PCR-GLOBWB for monthly and seasonal forecasting of the occurrence of hydrological extremes is positive. We argue that this conclusion applies equally to other similar GHMs and LSMs, which may show sufficient skill to forecast the occurrence of monthly flow extremes

Can seafood safety be compromised in the ocean of tomorrow?.

Autoria na publicação: FABIOLA FOGAÇA

Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resource management in the Rhine basin”,

Abstract. The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR) has carried out a research project to assess the impact of climate change on the river flow conditions in the Rhine basin. Along a bottom-up line, different detailed hydrological models with hourly and daily time steps have been developed for representative sub-catchments of the Rhine basin. Along a topdown line, a water balance model for the entire Rhine basin has been developed, which calculates monthly discharges and which was tested on the scale of the major tributaries of the Rhine. Using this set of models, the effects of climate change on the discharge regime in different parts of the Rhine basin were calculated using the results of UKHI and XCCC GCM-experiments. All models indicate the same trends in the changes: higher winter discharge as a result of intensified snow-melt and increased winter precipitation, and lower summer discharge due to the reduced winter snow storage and an increase of evapotranspiration. When the results are considered in more detail, however, several differences show up. These can firstly be attributed to different physical characteristics of the studied areas, but different spatial and temporal scales used in the modelling and different representations of several hydrological processes (e.g., evapotranspiration, snow melt) are responsible for the differences found as well. Climate change can affect various socio-economic sectors. Higher temperatures may threaten winter tourism in the lower winter sport areas. The hydrological changes will increase flood risk during winter, whilst low flows during summer will adversely affect inland navigation, and reduce water availability for agriculture and industry. Balancing the required actions against economic cost and the existing uncertainties in the climate change scenarios, a policy of 'noregret and flexibility' in water management planning and design is recommended, where anticipatory adaptive measures in response to climate change impacts are undertaken in combination with ongoing activities. Present address

Bioaccessibility of contaminants of emerging concern in raw and cooked commercial seafood species: insights for food safety risk assessment.

Autoria na publicação: FABIOLA FOGAÇA