European integration, productivity growth and real convergence: Evidence from the new member states

We estimate the determinants of labor productivity growth in 8 new European Union (EU) member states that joined the Union in 2004. Our focus is on the impact of globalization and EU integration efforts on labor productivity growth. Previous studies test the impact of trade using either exports or trade openness. We also test the impact of imports separately on labor productivity growth. Using panel data for 1995-2006 period, we find that globalization has mixed effects. FDI and exports improve productivity, but imports hurt it. Regarding domestic variables, we find that human capital is the most important source of labor productivity growth in the new member states. There is also considerable adjustment of labor productivity towards EU15 levels, indicating significant "catching up" and hence real convergence. Policy implications of the findings are also discussed. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996–2003: Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?

Kazakhstan possesses extensive natural resource reserves expected to yield significant export revenues. Since independence in 1991, the composition of exports has changed in favor of energy-related sectors. In the context of such evidence and considerable expected future revenues, researchers have pointed to possible Dutch disease effects. This paper examines whether Kazakhstan is vulnerable to this condition. Using an extended version of the Balassa-Samuelson model including the price of oil, we find evidence that changes in those terms had a significant effect on the real exchange rate during 1996-2003, suggesting symptoms of significant Dutch disease effects in Kazakhstan

Real and financial sector studies in central and Eastern Europe: A review

This survey focuses broadly on real and financial sector studies in former transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The survey shows that in the real sector there has been considerable trade and global integration in the post-transition period. More- over, there is no uniform evidence regarding convergence or divergence from the sur- veyed empirical studies regarding business cycles in Central and Eastern Europe. Financial sector studies show that foreign bank ownership is associated with higher banking efficiency than in the case of domestic bank ownership and significant return and volatility transmission also from core European financial markets. However, the recent global financial crisis significantly affected these patterns. Finally, central bank communication seems to have significant wealth effects in financial markets and tends to reduce financial market uncertainty. © 2016, Faculty of Social Sciences. All rights reserved

Measuring financial stress in transition economies

This study constructs a financial stress index for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia and examines the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. The financial stress index incorporates banking sector fragility, time varying stock market return volatility, sovereign debt spreads, an exchange market pressure index, and trade credit. These variables seem to capture key aspects of financial stress in sample countries as the index peaks at known financial crises in these countries. We then examine the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. Impulse response functions based on bivariate VARs show a significant relationship between financial stress and some measures of economic activity. Overall, the constructed financial stress index provides valuable information on the state of the economy and economic activity. © 2012 Elsevier B.V

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies

This paper examines the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy for some former transition, emerging European economies over the 1995Q1-2010Q4 period by using a Markov regime-switching model. We consider the monetary policy rule proposed by Taylor (1993) and the fiscal policy rule suggested by Davig and Leeper (2007) in accounting for monetary and fiscal policy interactions. Empirical results suggest that monetary and fiscal policy rules exhibit switching properties between active and passive regimes and all countries followed both active and passive monetary policies. As for fiscal policy, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, and Slovenia seem to have alternated between active and passive fiscal regimes while fiscal policies of Poland and the Slovak Republic can be characterized by a single fiscal regime. Although the policy mix and the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy point a diverse picture in our sample countries, the monetary policy seems to be passive in all countries after 2000. This finding is consistent with the constraints imposed by European Union enlargement on monetary policy. © 2014 Association for Comparative Economic Studies

Financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area

This paper examines financial stress transmission between the U.S. and the Euro Area. To better understand the linkages between financial stress in the two regions, we construct a financial stress index for the U.S. similar to the Composite Indicators of Systemic Stress (CISS) that has been developed for the Euro Area with a focus on systemic risk. Using weekly data from 2000 to 2021 and Granger predictability in distribution test, we analyze stress transmission in “normal” times as well as under unusually high and low stress episodes. While we document unilateral transmission from the U.S. to the Euro Area under normal conditions based on the center of the distribution, tail dependence tests and impulse response analysis show significant bilateral transmission, particularly in unusually high financial stress episodes. This holds true for aggregate indices as well as the subindicators of financial stress in various financial markets. As such, there must be global efforts to contain financial crises and ensure a strong and resilient financial system. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.The authors wish to thank Iftekhar Hasan (the Editor) and an anonymous referee fer very helpful comments without implicating them for any remaining errors. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors