Perkembangan Pasar Kopi Dunia dan Implikasinya bagi Indonesia

EnglishThe fast growing trend of world coffee production in the world creates an excess of its supply, encouraging a more intense of competition among the exporting countries.  This situation leads to a decreasing trend of fluctuate price of world coffee. The objective of this paper is to assess the world coffee market behavior in order to make an appropriate strategy and direction of coffee industry policies. Indonesia’s market share in traditional market tends to decrease, and therefore, it is necessary to diversify market destination and commodity composition, in addition to efforts to increase the export of processed coffee.IndonesianPesatnya perkembangan produksi kopi dunia telah menyebabkan terjadinya kelebihan pasokan kopi dunia sehingga mengakibatkan persaingan antar negara produsen menjadi semakin ketat dan pada akhirnya harga cenderung tertekan. Tulisan ini bertujuan mengkaji perkembangan pasar kopi dunia agar dapat menjadi pertimbangan dalam menyusun strategi dan arah kebijakan komoditas kopi Indonesia. Pangsa pasar kopi Indonesia di pasar-pasar tradisional cenderung menurun, oleh karena itu diperlukan upaya-upaya antara lain mendiversifikasi pasar tujuan dan produk kopi serta meningkatkan ekspor kopi olahan

Perkembangan Pasar Kopi Dunia Dan Implikasinya Bagi Indonesia

Pesatnya perkembangan produksi kopi dunia telah menyebabkan terjadinya kelebihan pasokan kopi dunia sehingga mengakibatkan persaingan antar negara produsen menjadi semakin ketat dan pada akhirnya harga cenderung tertekan. Tulisan ini bertujuan mengkaji perkembangan pasar kopi dunia agar dapat menjadi pertimbangan dalam menyusun strategi dan arah kebijakan komoditas kopi Indonesia. Pangsa pasar kopi Indonesia di pasar-pasar tradisional cenderung menurun, oleh karena itu diperlukan upaya-upaya antara lain mendiversifikasi pasar tujuan dan produk kopi serta meningkatkan ekspor kopi olaha

Perilaku Harga dan Integrasi Pasar Bawang Merah di Indonesia

EnglishThis study aims to look at price behavior and shallot market integration in Indonesia. This study uses monthly producer and consumer price data from 2011-2016. Price behavior is analyzed by coefficient of variation. Shallot market integration is analyzed by the Johansen cointegration model. The coefficient of variation of producer and consumer price increases following implementation of Horticultural Product Import Recommendation (RIPH) policy. The results of the Engle-Granger causality test show that there is no Engle-Granger causality relationship between consumer price and producer price of shallot in Indonesia, this is could be due to market power and market failure. Analysis of variance decompositions shows that DKI Jakarta market is the dominant market and referenced market in projecting of consumer price of shallot in Indonesia.IndonesianStudi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perilaku harga dan integrasi pasar bawang merah di Indonesia. Studi ini menggunakan data harga produsen dan harga konsumen bulanan dari 2011-2016. Perilaku harga dianalisis dengan koefisien variasi. Integrasi pasar bawang merah dianalisis dengan model kointegrasi Johansen. Koefisien variasi harga produsen dan harga konsumen meningkat sesudah diberlakukannya kebijakan Rekomendasi Impor Produk Hortikultura (RIPH). Hasil uji kausalitas Engle-Granger menunjukkan bahwa antara harga konsumen dan harga produsen bawang merah di Indonesia tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas, ini karena terjadinya market power dan kegagalan pasar. Analisis dekomposisi variasi menunjukkan bahwa pasar DKI Jakarta menjadi pasar dominan dan dapat menjadi acuan untuk proyeksi harga konsumen bawang merah di Indonesia

Perilaku Harga dan Integrasi Pasar Bawang Merah di Indonesia

EnglishShallot is the main spice widely used in the Indonesian food cooking and servings that makes its demand continues increasing although its price highly fluctuates. This study is intended to analyze price behavior and shallot market integration in Indonesia. This study uses monthly producer and consumer prices data for 2011-2016. The price fluctuation was analyzed with the coefficient of variation. The market integration was analyzed with Johansen's cointegration approach using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study shows that both producer and consumer prices fluctuations increase after the introduction of Horticultural Product Import Recommendation policy. The Engle-Granger causality test shows that there is no causal relationship between the consumer and producer price of the shallot in Indonesia. The market power and market failure are attributed to the absence of causality. The results of forecast errors variance decomposition analysis indicate that the market in Central Java is the dominant market and can be used as a reference market in predicting the dynamics of consumers’ shallot price in Indonesia. Managing shallot production level and amount of shallot supplies in the Central Java markets is the keys for ensuring shallot price stability at national level.IndonesianBawang merah merupakan bumbu masak yang utama bagi masyarakat Indonesia sehingga permintaan bawang merah meningkat terus, walaupun harganya berfluktuasi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perilaku harga dan integrasi pasar bawang merah di Indonesia. Studi ini menggunakan data harga produsen dan harga konsumen bulanan tahun 2011–2016. Fluktuasi harga dianalisis dengan koefisien variasi. Integrasi pasar bawang merah dianalisis dengan pendekatan kointegrasi Johansen menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi harga produsen dan harga konsumen meningkat sesudah kebijakan Rekomendasi Impor Produk Hortikultura diberlakukan. Uji kausalitas Engle-Granger menunjukkan bahwa antara harga konsumen dan harga produsen bawang merah di Indonesia tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas. Hal ini dapat disebabkan oleh adanya market power dan terjadinya kegagalan pasar. Analisis dekomposisi varian kesalahan menunjukkan bahwa pasar Jawa Tengah adalah pasar dominan dan dapat menjadi acuan memprakirakan dinamika harga konsumen bawang merah di Indonesia. Pengelolaan tingkat produksi dan jumlah pasokan bawang merah di pasar Jawa Tengah termasuk sebagai kunci dalam menjaga stabilitas harga bawang merah secara nasional

Impacts of Indonesia-India Free Trade Agreements on Agricultural Sector of Indonesia: A CGE Analysis

IndonesianIndia merupakan salah satu negara mitra utama Indonesia dalam perdagangan pertanian. Indonesia dan India kini sedang berunding tentang kerja sama perdagangan bebas bilateral (FTA). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi potensi dampak FTA Indonesia-India terhadap sektor pertanian dan perekonomian Indonesia secara keseluruhan. Penelitian menggunakan model Global Trade Analysis Project yang dikaitkan dengan model keseimbangan umum (CGE) Indonesia the Enormous Regional model menggunakan Tabel Input-Output 2005. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implementasi FTA Indonesia-India dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan kedua negara. Kenaikan kesejahteraan (PDB) India lebih besar dari pada Indonesia. Sebaliknya, surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia lebih besar daripada India. Di sisi regional, PDB Sumatera dan Kalimantan meningkat, sedangkan PDB riil Sulawesi, Bali-NT, dan Papua-Maluku menurun. Dampak terhadap output tampak bervariasi antar sektor dan daerah. Ekspor sayuran dan buah, serta minyak nabati dan lemak menunjukkan peningkatan. Impor Indonesia untuk beberapa komoditas akan mengalami peningkatan dengan persentase yang berbeda. Tingkat kemiskinan di wilayah Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, dan Bali-Nusa Tenggara diperkirakan akan menurun. FTA Indonesia-India layak untuk diwujudkan.EnglishIndia is one of the Indonesia's most important partners in agricultural trade. Indonesia and India are now negotiating bilateral free trade cooperation (FTA). This study aims to evaluate potential impacts of the Indonesia-India FTA on agricultural sector and the Indonesian economy as a whole. The study uses a Global Trade Analysis Project model that is associated with the regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Indonesia the Enormous Regional model using the Indonesia Input-Output Table 2005. The results show that the implementation of the Indonesia-India FTA could improve welfare of both countries. The increase in welfare of India is higher than that of Indonesia. In contrast, Indonesia's trade balance surplus is larger than that of India. On regional side, real GDP of Sumatra and Kalimantan is predicted to increase, while real GDP of Sulawesi, Bali-NT, and Papua-Maluku to decrease. The output impacts vary across sectors and regions. Exports of vegetables and fruits, as well as vegetable oils and fats, are expected to increase. Indonesia's import for some commodities increase with different percentages. Poverty rates in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Bali-Nusa Tenggara regions are expected to decline. FTA Indonesia-India is feasible to be realized

IMPACT OF PAKISTAN-MALAYSIA FTA ON INDONESIAN EXPORT OF REFINED BLEACHED DEODORIZED (RBD) OLEIN

Indonesia needs to increase its export products in order to maintain surplus balance of payment. However, Pakistan-Malaysia FTA could make Indonesian RBD Olein in adifficult situation. This paper aims to examine the impact of a decrease in import tariff of Malaysian RBD olein in Pakistan on Indonesian export of RBD Olein using Trade analysisemploying Armington model that distinguishes the product by the country of origin. RBD olein trade model consists of four endogenous countries and one exogenous rest of theworld (ROW). The endogenous countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, the United State of America and Pakistan. The results indicate that the reduction in import tariff of Malaysian RBD Olein by 10 percent will cause the price to decrease by around 7.3 percent. The decline in Malaysian RBD olein price will increase its demand in Pakistan by around 4.4 percent. While import demand of Indonesian RBD Olein in Pakistan estimated to increase by only 0.35 percent, this is because the price of Indonesian RBD Olein rises by 0.17percent. In other word, calculated based on the average of export volume and implicit price in the period 2005-2007, import of Indonesian RBD Olein in Pakistan will only increase by around 2.1 thousand tones, or US$ 1.03 million,.Keywords: tariff, import, export, Armington model

Market Integration and Price Formation of Chili in Indonesia

This paper examines the markets integration of chili in Indonesia uses monthly prices data from 2011-2016. Market integration was analyzed by the Johansen, co-integration model. The results of EG causality test show that producer price and wholesale price Granger cause consumer price. There is a causal relationship between one way. Therefore, the causality approach accepts the hypothesis of the Law of One Price (LOP). Whereas co-integration models provide evidence for a well-integrated chili market. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that Padang, as one of the center of red chili production area, becomes the reference market (price leader) of Chili price in Indonesia

Impact of Pakistan-Malaysia Fta on Indonesian Export of Refined Bleached Deodorized (Rbd) Olein

Indonesia needs to increase its export products in order to maintain surplus balance of payment. However, Pakistan-Malaysia FTA could make Indonesian RBD Olein in adifficult situation. This paper aims to examine the impact of a decrease in import tariff of Malaysian RBD olein in Pakistan on Indonesian export of RBD Olein using Trade analysisemploying Armington model that distinguishes the product by the country of origin. RBD olein trade model consists of four endogenous countries and one exogenous rest of theworld (ROW). The endogenous countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, the United State of America and Pakistan. The results indicate that the reduction in import tariff of Malaysian RBD Olein by 10 percent will cause the price to decrease by around 7.3 percent. The decline in Malaysian RBD olein price will increase its demand in Pakistan by around 4.4 percent. While import demand of Indonesian RBD Olein in Pakistan estimated to increase by only 0.35 percent, this is because the price of Indonesian RBD Olein rises by 0.17percent. In other word, calculated based on the average of export volume and implicit price in the period 2005-2007, import of Indonesian RBD Olein in Pakistan will only increase by around 2.1 thousand tones, or US$ 1.03 million,

Pendapatan Rumah Tangga Perdesaan pada Desa Lahan Kering Berbasis Sayuran

Sektor pertanian masih merupakan sektor yang berkontribusi relatif besar terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Pada 2013 kontribusi sektor pertanian mencapai 15% terhadap PDB Indonesia dan sekitar 35,1% dari total angkatan Indonesia bekerja di sektor pertanian (World Bank, 2014). Walaupun telah banyak inovasi, sektor pertanian masih didominasi oleh petani berskala kecil dan fluktuasi output hasil panen. Pada saat bersamaan, aktivitas nonpertanian memberikan peluang untuk meningkatkan pendapatan dan pekerjaan terhadap angkatan kerja rumah tangga pertanian dan nonpertanian. Pada masa sekarang usaha tani tidak dapat menjadi sumber pendapatan utama bagi petani berkala kecil dan marginal. Di negara berkembang, penghasilan dari lahan yang dimiliki tidak dapat memenuhi kebutuhan rumah tangga (Singh et al., 2003). Selain itu, sektor pertanian tidak dapat menyerap laju pertumbuhan buruh perdesaan karena turunnya elastisitas output terhadap tenaga kerja di sektor pertanian. Peranan pekerjaan di sektor nonpertanian semakin penting karena ekonomi perdesaan saat ini menjadi lebih terdiversifikasi dan semakin meluas ke luar sektor pertanian. Kapasitas penyerapan tenaga kerja oleh sektor pertanian sudah mencapai limit atas dan tidak dapat mengakomodasi tenaga kerja perdesaan di sektor pertanian sepanjang tahun. Oleh karena itu, rumah tangga perdesaan mencari pekerjaan di luar sektor pertanian