Riociguat treatment in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: Final safety data from the EXPERT registry

Objective: The soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator riociguat is approved for the treatment of adult patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and inoperable or persistent/recurrent chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) following Phase

Tariff Policy and Environmental Quality of Imports

在實務上，綠色關稅偏好（green tariff preferences）經常被用來解決貿易與環境保護之間的爭端。本文欲分析進口關稅稅率與進口品的環保品質，二者彼此之間的相互變動關係。分析的結果顯示，稅率的降低是否足以促使廠商提昇進口品的環保品質，必須視環保品質的改善對消費者邊際效用的影響程度時，倘若改善進口品的環保品質得以減緩消費者邊際效用遞減的程度時，則降低關稅稅率可以提昇進口品的環保品質；而且，長期下的產品環保品質會較高。此外，本文也欲探究進口品的環保品質對一國政府制訂最適關稅政策的影響。一般而言，在人們缺乏環保意識的情況下，政府應採行高（低）環保品質進口品低（高）關稅稅率的最適關稅政策；而且，當產品環保品質的改善成本相對於其污染減量技術、或污染的邊際環境損害程度、或政府對環境品質的重視程度愈高時，則在長期下，對於高環保品質的進口品，政府應課以較短期時更低的關稅稅率。In practice, the green tariff preference concept has often been applied to settle trade disputes relating to environmental protection. This paper analyzes the correlation between import tariffs and the environmental quality of imports. We find that it is ambiguous whether a lower tariff leads to a higher environmental quality of imports since the existence of this phenomenon hinges on the effects of the environmental quality of imports on the marginal utility of the imports. Specifically, if the better environmental quality of imports can mitigate the decline in the marginal utility of the imports, then a lower tariff necessarily raises the environmental quality of the imports; moreover, the quality will be even higher in the long run. This paper also investigates, in a slightly different setting, the effect of the environmental quality of imports on optimal tariffs. In general, if consumers are not conscious of environmental protection, then the optimal tariff policy is to levy a high (low) tariff on imports with low (high) environmental standards

Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

A spatiotemporal statistical model of the risk factors of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in South-east Asian countries and China

Objectives: This article aims to quantify the risk factors associated with the human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in South-east Asian countries and China; a dangerous region for this disease that has the potential for a pandemic outbreak. Study design: A statistical model with time and spatial dimensions was built to capture the international spread patterns of this disease. Methods: The grid search method was used to fit the model with 2004-2006 data. The grid search approach is a simple procedure that allows the fit of any function to data. Results: This study found that: (1) when the number of domestic H5N1 human cases increases by one person in a certain time period, the chance that the country will have a human case in the next period increases by 22.10%; (2) when the number of human cases in a neighbouring country increases by one person in a certain time period, the chance that the country will have a human case in the next period increases by 1.62%; (3) when the number of avian cases in a neighbouring country increases by one, the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.02%; (4) as the human population increases by one unit. the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.10%; (5) when the quantity of imported poultry increases by 1000 metric tons, the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.03%; (6) when the outbreak of the disease among domestic birds increases by one, the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.19%; and finally (7) when the number of birds destroyed increases by 1000, the chance that the country will have a human case decreases by 0.30%. Conclusions: These findings shed new light on the spatiotemporal characteristics of the epidemic, and thus need to be taken into consideration in interdisciplinary and scientific discussion of the disease. (C) 2008 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A spatiotemporal statistical model of the risk factors of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in South-east Asian countries and China

Objectives: This article aims to quantify the risk factors associated with the human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in South-east Asian countries and China; a dangerous region for this disease that has the potential for a pandemic outbreak. Study design: A statistical model with time and spatial dimensions was built to capture the international spread patterns of this disease. Methods: The grid search method was used to fit the model with 2004-2006 data. The grid search approach is a simple procedure that allows the fit of any function to data. Results: This study found that: (1) when the number of domestic H5N1 human cases increases by one person in a certain time period, the chance that the country will have a human case in the next period increases by 22.10%; (2) when the number of human cases in a neighbouring country increases by one person in a certain time period, the chance that the country will have a human case in the next period increases by 1.62%; (3) when the number of avian cases in a neighbouring country increases by one, the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.02%; (4) as the human population increases by one unit. the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.10%; (5) when the quantity of imported poultry increases by 1000 metric tons, the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.03%; (6) when the outbreak of the disease among domestic birds increases by one, the chance that the country will have a human case increases by 0.19%; and finally (7) when the number of birds destroyed increases by 1000, the chance that the country will have a human case decreases by 0.30%. Conclusions: These findings shed new light on the spatiotemporal characteristics of the epidemic, and thus need to be taken into consideration in interdisciplinary and scientific discussion of the disease. (C) 2008 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Quantitative Ordinal Scale Estimates of Plant Disease Severity: Comparing Treatments Using a Proportional Odds Model

Studies in plant pathology, agronomy and plant breeding requiring disease severity assessment often use a special type of ordinal scale based on defined numeric ranges (a quantitative ordinal scale). This form of the ordinal scale is generally based on the percent area with symptoms [e.g. the Horsfall-Barratt (HB) scale]. Parametric proportional odds models (POMs) may be used to analyze the ratings obtained from disease scales directly, without converting ratings to percentages using range midpoints of quantitative ordinal scales (currently a standard procedure). Our aim was to evaluate the performance of the POM for the purpose of comparing treatments (e.g. varieties, fungicides, etc.) using ordinal estimates of disease severity to midpoint conversions (MCs) and nearest percent estimates (NPEs) using a t-test. A simulation method was implemented and the parameters of the simulation estimated using actual disease severity data from the field. The criterion for comparison was the power of the hypothesis test (the probability to reject the null hypothesis when it is false). Most often NPEs had superior performance. The performance of the POM was never inferior to using the midpoint of the severity range at severity 40% is equivalent to other methods

An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu are compared directly according to the number of human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Estimating the impact of avian flu on international tourism demand using panel data

This paper investigates the impacts of avian flu on global and Asian tourism using panel data procedures. Both static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are adopted to estimate the impacts of this infectious disease. The empirical results from static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are consistent and indicate that the number of affected poultry outbreaks has significant impacts on the international tourism of global and Asian affected countries. The high mortality rate among humans, the potential of a global flu pandemic and some media frenzy with hype and speculation might adversely affect the images of these infected destinations as a safe tourist destination. Moreover, it was found that the average damage to Asian tourism was more serious, which might have been induced by an ineffective suppression in numerous Asian infected countries. In addition, Asia was the earliest affected region and the area infected most seriously by avian flu, both in humans and in poultry. Since the potential risks and damage arising from avian flu and the subsequent pandemic influenza are much greater than for previous diseases, the need to take necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of avian flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action in modelling and managing International tourism demand and risk

Assessing impacts of SARS and Avian Flu on international tourism demand to Asia

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of infectious diseases including Avian Flu and severe acute respiratory syndrome (hereafter SARS) on international tourist arrivals in Asian countries using both single datasets and panel data procedures. An autoregressive moving average model together with an exogenous variables (ARMAX) model are used to estimate the effects of these diseases in each SARS- and Avian Flu-infected country, while a dynamic panel model is adopted to estimate the overall impact on the region of these two diseases. The empirical results from both approaches are consistent and indicate that the numbers of affected cases have a significant impact on SARS-affected countries but not on Avian Flu-affected countries. However, since the potential damage arising from the Avian Flu and subsequent pandemic influenza is much greater than that resulting from the SARS, the need to take the necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of Avian Flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action. Therefore, the empirical findings of this study could add to the knowledge regarding the relationship between tourism and crisis management, especially in so far as the management of transmissible diseases is concerned. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved