Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895–2000

A newly available data set of daily precipitation observations was used to study the temporal variability of the frequency of short-duration extreme precipitation events for 1895–2000 in the conterminous United States. Event durations of 1, 5, 10, and 30 day and return periods of 1, 5, and 20 year were analyzed. For all combinations of duration and return period, heavy precipitation frequencies were relatively high during the late 19th/early 20th Centuries, decreasing to a minimum in the 1920s and 30s, followed by a general increase into the 1990s. The frequencies at the beginning of the 20th Century were nearly as high as during the late 20th Century for some combinations of duration and return period, suggesting that natural variability cannot be discounted as an important contributor to the recent high values. Extensive quality control of data and Monte Carlo testing was performed to provide confidence in the reality of the early period high frequencies

A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios

Trends in Twentieth-Century U.S. Snowfall Using a Quality-Controlled Dataset

A quality assessment of daily manual snowfall data has been undertaken for all U.S. long-term stations and their suitability for climate research. The assessment utilized expert judgment on the quality of each station. Through this process, the authors have identified a set of stations believed to be suitable for analysis of trends. Since the 1920s, snowfall has been declining in the West and the mid-Atlantic coast. In some places during recent years the decline has been more precipitous, strongly trending downward along the southern margins of the seasonal snow region, the southern Missouri River basin, and parts of the Northeast. Snowfall has been increasing since the 1920s in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, the Great Lakes– northern Ohio Valley, and parts of the north-central United States. These areas that are in opposition to the overall pattern of declining snowfall seem to be associated with specific dynamical processes, such as upslope snow and lake-effect snow that may be responding to changes in atmospheric circulation

Trends in Twentieth-Century U.S. Snowfall Using a Quality-Controlled Dataset

A quality assessment of daily manual snowfall data has been undertaken for all U.S. long-term stations and their suitability for climate research. The assessment utilized expert judgment on the quality of each station. Through this process, the authors have identified a set of stations believed to be suitable for analysis of trends. Since the 1920s, snowfall has been declining in the West and the mid-Atlantic coast. In some places during recent years the decline has been more precipitous, strongly trending downward along the southern margins of the seasonal snow region, the southern Missouri River basin, and parts of the Northeast. Snowfall has been increasing since the 1920s in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, the Great Lakes– northern Ohio Valley, and parts of the north-central United States. These areas that are in opposition to the overall pattern of declining snowfall seem to be associated with specific dynamical processes, such as upslope snow and lake-effect snow that may be responding to changes in atmospheric circulation

Trends in Twentieth-Century U.S. Extreme Snowfall Seasons

Temporal variability in the occurrence of the most extreme snowfall years, both those with abundant snowfall amounts and those lacking snowfall, was examined using a set of 440 quality-controlled, homogenous U.S. snowfall records. The frequencies with which winter-centered annual snowfall totals exceeded the 90th and 10th percentile thresholds at individual stations were calculated from 1900–01 to 2006–07 for the conterminous United States, and for 9 standard climate regions. The area-weighted conterminous U.S. results do not show a statistically significant trend in the occurrence of either high or low snowfall years for the 107-yr period, but there are regional trends. Large decreases in the frequency of low-extreme snowfall years in the west north-central and east north-central United States are balanced by large increases in the frequency of low-extreme snowfall years in the Northeast, Southeast, and Northwest. During the latter portion of the period, from 1950–51 to 2006–07, trends are much more consistent, with the United States as a whole and the central and northwest U.S. regions in particular showing significant declines in high-extreme snowfall years, and four regions showing significant increases in the frequency of low-extreme snowfall years (i.e., Northeast, Southeast, south, and Northwest). In almost all regions of the United States, temperature during November–March is more highly correlated than precipitation to the occurrence of extreme snowfall years. El Nin ̃ o events are strongly associated with an increase in low-extreme snowfall years over the United States as a whole, and in the northwest, northeast, and central regions. A reduction in low-extreme snowfall years in the Southwest is also associated with El Nin ̃ o. The impacts of La Nin ̃ a events are strongest in the south and Southeast, favoring fewer high-extreme snowfall years, and, in the case of the south, more low-extreme snowfall years occur. The Northwest also has a significant reduction in the chance of a low-extreme snowfall year during La Nin ̃ a. A combination of trends in temperature in the United States and changes in the frequency of ENSO modes influences the frequency of extreme snowfall years in the United States

Quality Control of Pre-1948 Cooperative Observer Network Data

A recent comprehensive effort to digitize U.S. daily temperature and precipitation data observed prior to 1948 has resulted in a major enhancement in the computer database of the records of the National Weather Service’s cooperative observer network. Previous digitization efforts had been selective, concentrating on state or regional areas. Special quality control procedures were applied to these data to enhance their value for climatological analysis. The procedures involved a two-step process. In the first step, each individual temperature and precipitation data value was evaluated against a set of objective screening criteria to flag outliers. These criteria included extreme limits and spatial comparisons with nearby stations. The following data were automatically flagged: 1) all precipitation values exceeding 254 mm (10 in.) and 2) all temperature values whose anomaly from the monthly mean for that station exceeded five standard deviations. Addi- tional values were flagged based on differences with nearby stations; in this case, metrics were used to rank outliers so that the limited resources were concentrated on those values most likely to be invalid. In the second step, each outlier was manually assessed by climatologists and assigned one of the four following flags: valid, plausible, questionable, or invalid. In excess of 22 400 values were manually assessed, of which about 48% were judged to be invalid. Although additional manual assessment of outliers might further improve the quality of the database, the procedures applied in this study appear to have been successful in identifying the most flagrant errors

Trend Identification in Twentieth-Century U.S. Snowfall: The Challenges

There is an increasing interest in examining long-term trends in measures of snow climatology. An examination of the U.S. daily snowfall records for 1900–2004 revealed numerous apparent inconsistencies. For example, long-term snowfall trends among neighboring lake-effect stations differ greatly from insignificant to +100% century -1. Internal inconsistencies in the snow records, such as a lack of upward trends in maximum seasonal snow depth at stations with large upward trends in snowfall, point to inhomogeneities. Nationwide, the frequency of daily observations with a 10:1 snowfall-to-liquid-equivalent ratio declined from 30% in the 1930s to a current value of around 10%, a change that is clearly due to observational practice. There then must be biases in cold-season liquid-equivalent precipitation, or snowfall, or both. An empirical adjustment of snow-event, liquid-equivalent precipitation indicates that the potential biases can be statistically significant. Examples from this study show that there are nonclimatic issues that complicate the identification of and significantly change the trends in snow variables. Thus, great care should be taken in interpretation of time series of snow-related variables from the Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) network. Furthermore, full documentation of optional practices should be required of network observers so that future users of these data can properly account for such practices

Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate of the U.S. Great Plains

This document is one of series of regional climate descriptions designed to provide input that can be used in the development of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate scenario needs become clear. It is also hoped that these documents (and associated data and resources) are of direct benefit to decision makers and communities seeking to use this information in developing adaptation plans. There are nine reports in this series, one each for eight regions defined by the NCA, and one for the contiguous U.S. The eight NCA regions are the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Northwest, Southwest, Alaska, and Hawai‘i/Pacific Islands. These documents include a description of the observed historical climate conditions for each region and a set of climate scenarios as plausible futures – these components are described in more detail below. While the datasets and simulations in these regional climate documents are not, by themselves, new, (they have been previously published in various sources), these documents represent a more complete and targeted synthesis of historical and plausible future climate conditions around the specific regions of the NCA. There are two components of these descriptions. One component is a description of the historical climate conditions in the region. The other component is a description of the climate conditions associated with two future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions