Molecular Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance for Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Northern Territory, Australia

Emerging Infectious Disease's an open access journal in the public domain. All content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution.Neisseria gonorrhoeae antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a globally recognized health threat; new strategies are needed to enhance AMR surveillance. The Northern Territory of Australia is unique in that 2 different first-line therapies, based primarily on geographic location, are used for gonorrhea treatment. We tested 1,629 N. gonorrhoeae nucleic acid amplification test-positive clinical samples, collected from regions where ceftriaxone plus azithromycin or amoxicillin plus azithromycin are recommended first-line treatments, by using 8 N. gonorrhoeae AMR PCR assays. We compared results with those from routine culture-based surveillance data. PCR data confirmed an absence of ceftriaxone resistance and a low level of azithromycin resistance (0.2%), and that penicillin resistance was <5% in amoxicillin plus azithromycin regions. Rates of ciprofloxacin resistance and penicillinase-producing N. gonorrhoeae were lower when molecular methods were used. Molecular methods to detect N. gonorrhoeae AMR can increase the evidence base for treatment guidelines, particularly in settings where culture-based surveillance is limited

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world

Pharyngeal Gonorrhoea in Women: An Important Reservoir for Increasing Neisseria gonorrhoea Prevalence in Urban Australian Heterosexuals?

We aim to characterize sexual behavioral aspects of heterosexual Neisseria gonorrhoea (NG) acquisition in two Sexually Transmitted Diseases clinics in Sydney, Australia, in 2008–2012. Of 167 NG cases, 102 were heterosexually acquired with a trend of increasing NG prevalence in heterosexuals from 1.1% (95% CI 0.6–2.1) in 2008 to 3.0% (95% CI 2.0–4.0) in 2012 (P=0.027). Of heterosexual male cases, unprotected fellatio was the likely sexual activity for NG acquisition in 21/69 (30.4%) and commercial sex work (CSW) contact the likely source in 28/69 (40.6%). NG prevalence overall in CSW (2.2%) was not significantly higher than in non-CSW (1.2%) (P=0.15), but in 2012 there was a significant increase in NG prevalence in CSW (8.6%) compared to non-CSW (1.6%) (P<0.001). Pharyngeal NG was found in 9/33 (27.3%) female cases. Decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone (MIC ≥ 0.03 mg/L) occurred in 2.5% NG isolates, none heterosexually acquired. All were azithromycin susceptible. A significant trend of increasing prevalence of heterosexual gonorrhoea in an urban Australian STD clinic setting is reported. We advocate maintenance of NG screening in women, including pharyngeal screening in all women with partner change who report fellatio, as pharyngeal NG may be an important reservoir for heterosexual transmission. Outreach to CSW should be enhanced

Changes in the rates of Neisseria gonorrhoeae antimicrobial resistance are primarily driven by dynamic fluctuations in common gonococcal genotypes

Objectives: To examine how gonococcal genotypes and associated changes over time influence rates of Neisseria gonorrhoeae antimicrobial resistance

Azithromycin-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae spreading amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals in New South Wales, Australia, 2017

To identify the genetic basis of resistance as well as to better understand the epidemiology of a recent surge in azithromycin-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae in New South Wales, Australia.Azithromycin-resistant N. gonorrhoeae isolates (n = 118) collected from 107 males, 10 females and 1 transsexual between January and July 2017 were genotyped using a previously described iPLEX method. The results were compared with phenotypic resistance profiles and available patient data.The iPLEX results revealed 10 different N. gonorrhoeae genotypes (designated AZI-G1 to AZI-G10) of which three were responsible for the majority of infections; AZI-G10 (74.6%, 88 isolates; 87 males and 1 transsexual), AZI-G4 (11.0%, 13 isolates; 7 males and 6 females) and AZI-G7 (6.8%, 8 isolates; 7 males and 1 female). The observed resistance was attributable to one of two different azithromycin resistance mechanisms; the 23S rRNA C2611T mutation was identified in 24% of isolates, whereas the majority of resistance (76%) was associated with a meningococcal-type mtrR variant. Additionally, one isolate was found to harbour both the 23S rRNA C2611T mutation and a type XXXIV mosaic penA sequence associated with cephalosporin resistance.These data indicate outbreaks of azithromycin-resistant gonococci amongst networks of MSM and heterosexuals in New South Wales. The results also provide further evidence that azithromycin may soon be an ineffective treatment option for gonococcal infection and highlight the urgent need to explore alternative therapies

Real-time PCR detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae susceptibility to penicillin.

The objective of this study was to develop a real-time PCR assay targeting the gonococcal porB gene (PorB-PCR) for predicting susceptibility of Neisseria gonorrhoeae to penicillin. This complements a previously described PCR assay for detecting penicillinase-producing N. gonorrhoeae (PPNG) developed by our laboratory (PPNG-PCR). The PorB-PCR assay was designed using six probes to characterize various combinations of amino acids at positions 101 and 102 of the PorB1b class protein, including the WT G101/A102 and mutant G101K/A102D, G101K/A102N and G101K/A102G sequences, as well as the PorB1a sequence. The ability of these sequences to predict penicillin susceptibility was initially assessed using 2307 N. gonorrhoeae isolates from throughout Australia for which phenotypic susceptibility data were available. The assay was then applied to N. gonorrhoeae-positive clinical specimens (n?=?70). Specificity was assessed by testing commensal Neisseria strains (n?=?75) and N. gonorrhoeae-negative clinical specimens (n?=?171). Testing of the 2307 N. gonorrhoeae isolates using PorB-PCR to detect G101/A102 and PorB1a sequences identified a total of 78.4% (61.2% and 17.2%, respectively) of penicillin-susceptible isolates with specificities of 97.4% and 99.3% and positive predictive values of 98.8% and 98.9%, where PPNG strains were simultaneously identified and excluded. Similar performance data were obtained when the PorB-PCR assay was applied to the N. gonorrhoeae-positive clinical specimens. No false-positive results were observed for the N. gonorrhoeae-negative samples and no cross-reactions were observed with the non-gonococcal species. When used in parallel with the previously described PPNG-PCR, the PorB-PCR approach has the potential to facilitate individualized treatment of gonorrhoea using penicillin