Impact of tree planting on household well-being: evidence from the central highlands of Vietnam

Household land use decisions in the tropics have a wide range of outcomes and impacts on economic development, environmental conservation, and social development. This study seeks to contribute to this debate by examining the effects of tree planting on poverty alleviation and welfare improvement in Vietnam. We employ a combination of multinomial endogenous treatment effect and propensity score matching, using survey data collected from 239 households in 11 communes in Vietnam's Central Highlands region. We find that households engaged in tree planting can increase their income and alleviate poverty compared to non-engaging households. Specifically, long-term cashew plantations provide early harvests and have proven to be a preferred crop for households dealing with immediate livelihood needs. However, short-term acacia timber crops contribute insignificantly to poverty reduction and may be more suitable for households with greater financial resources. The policy implication underscores the importance of interventions tailored to support impoverished households with urgent livelihood needs. Prioritizing immediate necessities is crucial before households can invest in long-term tree planting

Essays on economic modelling of farmers’ behaviours

Multiple socio-economic and biophysical factors affect farmers’ behavioural responses to economic policy and technology adoption, but personal beliefs and expert opinions are also important for making actual choices on farm policy and agricultural innovations. Using econometric and mathematical programming models, this thesis assessed farmers’ behavioural responses to farm structural changes, technology adoption and policy interventions. For structural changes, the results showed that conversion to organic farming in the European Union (EU) is a two-tier decision, with a first choice of staying conventional or moving to conversion and a second choice of mixed or organic production. This gradual conversion process encourages the presence of nested structures within the process, largely influenced by socio-economic and biophysical variables such as milk prices, policy incentives and technology factors. Following milk quota abolition under the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, risk of price uncertainty emerged as another key factor for the organic conversion process of Swedish dairy farms. In econometric modelling of farmers’ choices and impacts of responses to adopting agricultural technology, the parametric econometric specification is commonly applied. However, it cannot guarantee the true specification of behavioural responses to agricultural innovation. In this thesis, a recently developed nonparametric (NP) kernel density estimator was applied in impact assessment of agricultural technology adoption, using the case of zero tillage technology in the rice-wheat cropping system of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) region. This estimator can capture possible nonlinearities in the data generation process that cannot be known a priori. The results showed that the NP specification outperformed the parametric specification in predicting propensity scores and produced impact estimates with small standard error. For the study area, the results showed that introduction of the new technology generated the economic benefits of markedly lower tillage costs yield in zero-tilled plots. In a study of policy interventions, the wealth effect of the CAP direct payment system on agricultural crop production decisions was analysed using Bayesian econometrics and positive mathematical programming (PMP). Under risk, lump-sum payments may influence risk-averse farmers on crop production decisions. In simulations, no direct payment in a risky environment caused a shift in land use away from risky crops towards low-risk crops, altering the crop mix. Moreover, the farm-level wealth effect varied greatly between farms, although its magnitude was influenced by regional characteristics, e.g. historical farm structure and region-specific conditions

Explaining the Process for Conversion to Organic Dairy Farming in Sweden: An Alternative Modelling Approach

To date, the process of conversion to organic farming has been analysed as a choice between only two alternatives, conventional versus organic farming. However, the conversion process in the EU is a two-tier decision, which brings the possibility of a nested structure between mixed and organic farming. In the context of Sweden, where the conversion investment is flexible, we attempted to identify economic determinants of the organic conversion process. For that purpose, we applied the nested Logit random utility maximisation (NLRUM) model to data from the Swedish farm accounting data network for 2002-2012. The analysis showed that milk prices, milk yield and environmental support payments play a significant role in the organic conversion process. As expected, a decrease in conventional milk prices would induce conventional farms to convert to organic production. The scale of conversion to organic farming was more pronounced among dairy farms located in regions with higher environmental support payments, and in regions endowed with more pasture land and leys

The distortion in the EU feed market due to import constraints on genetically modifed soy

Feed importers in some EU member states face constraints on imports of genetically modifed (GM) soy, a practice that may compromise the interests of EU livestock farm‑ ers. Using the cases of Sweden and Austria, we analyzed price transmission in the soy supply chain originating from Brazil, applying an asymmetric non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to identify short-run and long-run asymmetries. The results revealed signifcant asymmetric efects in how positive and negative price changes are absorbed within the feed industry. Notably, increases in the cost of Brazil‑ ian soy swiftly afect the prices for EU farmers, while cost reductions fail to trigger cor‑ responding price decreases. Consequently, stronger constraints on GM soy imports are likely to exacerbate the competitiveness challenges faced by livestock farmers, primar‑ ily due to their reliance on non-GM soy. This implies that the restrictions on GM imports need to be relaxed or that low-cost local protein alternatives need to be developed

Analysing and measuring the economic effects of zero-tillage technology: The case of the rice-wheat cropping system of the Indo-Gangetic Plains

Conventional tillage is the predominant tillage practice in the rice-wheat system of the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs). However, it often delays wheat sowing and reduces yield in instances of late maturity of rice. Zero tillage (ZT) technology facilitates the early sowing of wheat and avoids yield loss due to terminal heat stress. This paper measures the economic impacts of ZT technology on wheat yield and costs of tillage operations and herbicide use in the rice-wheat system. We conducted a farm household survey of 353 farmers in the Karnal and Rupandehi districts of the IGP region. A propensity score matching technique is applied with a specification of non-parametric kernel density function to measure the empirical evidence. The results showed that, although zero tillage does not lead to a promising premium in the wheat yield from early sowing, farmers benefit from the technology thanks to strong cost-saving effects (14.54%-19.73%) on tillage operations. In Karnal, the current level of herbicide use is slightly higher (by 1.06%) in ZT plots, but the lower expenditure in Rupandehi illustrates future prospects for a gradual decline in herbicide use with the uptake of ZT technology

A Bayesian econometrics and risk programming approach for analysing the impact of decoupled payments in the European Union

We estimate a risk-based programming, individual farm model and apply it to study the wealth effects of crop-related, decoupled direct payments under the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy. The model expands on previous work on estimating risk-based programming models by applying a robust Bayesian econometric framework. The results indicate that the wealth effect varies greatly between individual farms, but that its impact on aggregate crop production is small. For larger farms, in particular, removing the decoupled payments, while keeping total land constant, increases the diversity of the cropping plan

A Bayesian econometrics and risk programming approach for analysing the impact of decoupled payments in the European Union*

We estimate a risk-based programming, individual farm model and apply it to study the wealth effects of crop-related, decoupled direct payments under the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy. The model expands on previous work on estimating risk-based programming models by applying a robust Bayesian econometric framework. The results indicate that the wealth effect varies greatly between individual farms, but that its impact on aggregate crop production is small. For larger farms, in particular, removing the decoupled payments, while keeping total land constant, increases the diversity of the cropping plan.</p