Renewable Energy Sources: Global and Russian Outlook Up to 2040

During the period up to 2040, renewable energy sources (RES) will have the highest growth rates of all forms of energy. Based on the calculations on the world energy model incorporated in the SCANER modelling and information complex (working on the basis of optimization, econometric analysis, and balance approach), key trends in the world consumption of renewable energy sources; the share of OECD and non-OECD countries in the use of the renewable energy sources; consumption of renewable energy sources by type; end use and the impact on the electricity sector during the period up to 2040 were observed. The main finding of the paper is that RES are becoming more competitive and therefore will be used on an increasingly wide scale not only in the OECD countries, but also in the whole world. At the same time, due to the fact that RES start their take-off from a modest basis, they will only have a limited influence on the shares of hydrocarbons in the energy mix

Long-term development of the global energy sector under the influence of energy policies and technological progress

The world energy sector is entering a period of transformation, defined by the emergence of a whole range of cost-effective technologies and the formation of new state priorities that can radically change the structure of energy use. The calculations of the development of world energy markets for the period up to 2040 were made using economic and mathematical optimization modeling based on the ERI RAS SCANER model complex, for two scenarios: Conservative (maintaining key benchmarks and regulatory measures within the framework of existing energy policies, as well as incremental development of technologies without major breakthroughs) and Energy Transition (assuming ambitious goals in the field of reducing emissions, as well as accelerated technology development). The results of calculations show that the growth rate of primary energy consumption will slow down significantly. Renewable energy sources (RES) will be able to provide up to 35–50% of electricity production and up to a quarter of the world’s energy consumption by 2040, while the share of fossil fuels will decline. Oil and coal will pass the peak of consumption before 2040. This will not only lead to a radical change in the price environment of energy markets, but also to a transformation of the way they are organized and regulated, as well as to a revision of business models of most energy companies

Fossil fuels markets in the “energy transition” era

The global energy sector is undergoing a global transformation under the influence of technological breakthroughs in several sectors of production and consumption, as well as profound socioeconomic changes in approaches to energy use. This process became known as “energy transition.” In this paper, the authors investigate the long-term impact of the energy transition and related processes on the markets of key fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal. Research shows that all fossil fuel sectors will face a significant increase in competition, both within traditional markets and from other energy sources, due to the development of inter-fuel competition. At the same time, energy policies and efforts to combat greenhouse gas emissions will mostly determine the energy balances of the largest countries, and will have an even greater impact on the market. Natural gas, as the most environmentally friendly of fossil fuels, with a large potential to supplement the generation of new renewable energy sources (NRES), will be the least impaired by the energy transition. In the next 20 years, its consumption and production are expected to grow significantly. Oil is under serious pressure from environmental legislation and growing inter-fuel competition in the transport sector. It is highly likely that consumption will peak before 2040, yet the depletion of traditional resources is supporting prices. The coal market is set for an almost inevitable reduction in consumption. New technologies for capturing emissions can only partially mitigate the rate of coal use decline

Fossil fuels markets in the “energy transition” era

The global energy sector is undergoing a global transformation under the influence of technological breakthroughs in several sectors of production and consumption, as well as profound socioeconomic changes in approaches to energy use. This process became known as “energy transition.” In this paper, the authors investigate the long-term impact of the energy transition and related processes on the markets of key fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal. Research shows that all fossil fuel sectors will face a significant increase in competition, both within traditional markets and from other energy sources, due to the development of inter-fuel competition. At the same time, energy policies and efforts to combat greenhouse gas emissions will mostly determine the energy balances of the largest countries, and will have an even greater impact on the market. Natural gas, as the most environmentally friendly of fossil fuels, with a large potential to supplement the generation of new renewable energy sources (NRES), will be the least impaired by the energy transition. In the next 20 years, its consumption and production are expected to grow significantly. Oil is under serious pressure from environmental legislation and growing inter-fuel competition in the transport sector. It is highly likely that consumption will peak before 2040, yet the depletion of traditional resources is supporting prices. The coal market is set for an almost inevitable reduction in consumption. New technologies for capturing emissions can only partially mitigate the rate of coal use decline

Complex method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors

The article describes study results on the development of methods for forecasting the demand for petroleum products, some petroleum product groups in the world and in some countries node(nodes). The developed method is based on the combination of different forecasting approaches: correlation, factor, technical, economic and econometric analysis with mathematic economic model elements.  The method may be used in the performance of a wide range of tasks: from specific petroleum product market forecasting, such as aviation kerosene or motor gasoline, to system study of the world petroleum market development prospects and the future petroleum role in the energy balance of individual countries and regions.