1,168 research outputs found
Objective Bayes and Conditional Frequentist Inference
Objective Bayesian methods have garnered considerable interest and support among statisticians,
particularly over the past two decades. It has often been ignored, however, that in
some cases the appropriate frequentist inference to match is a conditional one. We present
various methods for extending the probability matching prior (PMP) methods to conditional
settings. A method based on saddlepoint approximations is found to be the most
tractable and we demonstrate its use in the most common exact ancillary statistic models.
As part of this analysis, we give a proof of an exactness property of a particular PMP in
location-scale models. We use the proposed matching methods to investigate the relationships
between conditional and unconditional PMPs. A key component of our analysis is a
numerical study of the performance of probability matching priors from both a conditional
and unconditional perspective in exact ancillary models. In concluding remarks we propose
many routes for future research
On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies
Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of
future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies,
an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. annual mortality rate, along with
higher-frequency regressors, e.g. daily temperature and precipitation.
Practitioners use summaries of the higher-frequency regressors in fixed effects
panel models. The choice over summary statistics amounts to model selection.
Some practitioners use Monte Carlo cross-validation (MCCV) to justify a
particular specification. However, conventional implementation of MCCV with
fixed testing-to-full sample ratios tends to select over-fit models. This paper
presents conditions under which MCCV, and also information criteria, can
deliver consistent model selection. Previous work has established that the
Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can be inconsistent for non-nested
selection. We illustrate that the BIC can also be inconsistent in our
framework, when all candidate models are misspecified. Our results have
practical implications for empirical conventions in climate change impact
studies. Specifically, they highlight the importance of a priori information
provided by the scientific literature to guide the models considered for
selection. We emphasize caution in interpreting model selection results in
settings where the scientific literature does not specify the relationship
between the outcome and the weather variables.Comment: Additional simulation results available from authors by reques
What can Renaissance Studies Teach us about Inclusivity?
In this article I describe my pedagogical approach to sixteenth- and seventeenth-century Spanish texts. I contend that by studying the cultural output of a remote historical period, modern students can examine mechanisms of exclusion without feeling compelled to defend their own identity or group. Racial dynamics are significantly different in the early modern period, when structural inequalities targeted religious minorities—the ‘conversos’ who were descendants of Jewish and Muslim inhabitants of the Iberian Peninsula. Since students do not personally identify with either the hegemonic identity of the noble Spanish male nor with the converso, they are able to examine racial and gender inequities in a less emotionally charged milieu. Furthermore, the grafting of racial difference onto religious minority that occurs in this era invites examination of the socially constructed nature of race as an identity category. After examining the racial and gender inequities of the early modern era, students are able to discuss the dynamics of systems of exclusion that have persisted into the modern age and, I hope, feel better able to identify and examine modern forms of racial and gender discrimination. Moreover, by examining a historically distant time period, students recognize the historical contingence of ideas regarding what is ‘natural’ and of identity categories themselves
Fictions of Containment in the Spanish Female Picaresque: Architectural Space and Prostitution in the Early Modern Mediterranean
This study examines the interdependence of gender, sexuality and space in the early modern period, which saw the inception of architecture as a discipline and gave rise to the first custodial institutions for women, including convents for reformed prostitutes. Meanwhile, conduct manuals established prescriptive mandates for female use of space, concentrating especially on the liminal spaces of the home. This work traces literary prostitution in the Spanish Mediterranean through the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, from the rise of courtesan culture in several key areas through the shift from tolerance of prostitution toward repression. Kuffner’s analysis pairs canonical and noncanonical works of fiction with didactic writing, architectural treatises, and legal mandates, tying the literary practice of prostitution to increasing control over female sexuality during the Counter Reformation. By tracing erotic negotiations in the female picaresque novel from its origins through later manifestations, she demonstrates that even as societal attitudes towards prostitution shifted dramatically, a countervailing tendency to view prostitution as an essential part of the social fabric undergirds many representations of literary prostitutes. Kuffner’s analysis reveals that the semblance of domestic enclosure figures as a primary erotic strategy in female picaresque fiction, allowing readers to assess the variety of strategies used by authors to comment on the relationship between unruly female sexuality and social order.https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/hispanic_studies_books/1020/thumbnail.jp
M-Club Announces $1.5 Million Gift to Forward Together Campaign
Alumni chapter\u27s donation will benefit baseball and football initiative
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