Prediction of geomagnetic storm strength from inner heliospheric in situ observations

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B z . Predicting the strength and duration of B z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B z problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B z , and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s−1; observed: 488 ± 30 km s−1), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line

Combination of Conservative and Interventional Therapy Strategies for Intra- and Extrahepatic Cholangiocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective Survival Analysis

Background. Due to the predominantly advanced stage at the time of diagnosis treatment of cholangiocarcinoma is difficult. Apart from surgical resection, interventional treatment strategies are increasingly used in advanced stage tumours. The aim of the study was a retrospective comparison of the effect of the various forms of treatment on morbidity and mortality. Method. A total of 195 patients, received either chemotherapy or a combination of photodynamic therapy (PDT) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and chemotherapy. Results. The median survival rate for all patients was 15.6 months, 50.8% were still alive 1 year after diagnosis. Patients, who had previously undergone surgery, survived 17.1 months longer than those without surgical treatment (P < .01). Chemotherapy prolonged the survival by 9.2 months (P = .47). Palliative patients under combination of chemotherapy and PDT survived on average 1.8 months longer (P = .28), with chemotherapy and TACE 9.8 months longer (P = .04) compared to chemotherapy alone. Conclusions. It appears that surgical treatment and chemotherapy combined with PDT or TACE may prolong survival

ElEvoHI : A NOVEL CME PREDICTION TOOL FOR HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING COMBINING AN ELLIPTICAL FRONT WITH DRAG-BASED MODEL FITTING

This article has an erratum: DOI 10.3847/0004-637X/831/2/210In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e., the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-phi, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 to +/- 6.5 hr and the arrival speed forecast by approximate to 250 to +/- 53 km s(-1), depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.Peer reviewe

Consumer credit in comparative perspective

We review the literature in sociology and related fields on the fast global growth of consumer credit and debt and the possible explanations for this expansion. We describe the ways people interact with the strongly segmented consumer credit system around the world—more specifically, the way they access credit and the way they are held accountable for their debt. We then report on research on two areas in which consumer credit is consequential: its effects on social relations and on physical and mental health. Throughout the article, we point out national variations and discuss explanations for these differences. We conclude with a brief discussion of the future tasks and challenges of comparative research on consumer credit.Accepted manuscrip

79. The effectivness of pain treatment with Strontium 89 in patient with osseous metastases

Aimof this study was to assessment of 89 Sr therapy as pain treatment modality in the group of patients with multiple bone metastases.Material and methodsFrom January 2000 to October 2000 in our center were treated 41 patients; 17 – prostate cancer and 24 – breast cancer patients. All patients had applied only one dose of 150 MBq of 89 Sr. Before and follow-up each patient has been evaluated; performance status according to the Karnofsky Scale and paro intensity according the VAS scale. We did not observe any clinical important haematological side effects. The ionisation dosemetric monitoring of the sources and the radioactive refuse were recorded. The radioactive refuse was storage in special container when the activity decreased to the background.ResultsWe noted relief of paro as follow:-“complete” 18 of 41 patients (8-prostate cancer, 10 – breast cancer),-“partial” 12 of 41 patients (3- prostate cancer, 9- breast cancer),-“no effect” 11 of 41 patients (6-prostate cancer, 5- breast cancer).ConclusionsWe suggest that therapy of painful multiple bone metastases with application of 89 Sr is effective nd safe

Phase III study of 5FU, etoposide and leucovorin (FELV) compared to epirubicin, cisplatin and 5FU (ECF) in previously untreated patients with advanced biliary cancer

The purpose of this study was to determine whether epirubicin, cisplatin and infused 5FU (ECF) improves overall survival (OS) compared to 5FU, etoposide and leucovorin (FELV) in patients with previously untreated advanced biliary cancer in a prospective randomised study. Patients were randomly assigned to receive epirubicin, cisplatin and infused 5FU ECF or bolus 5FU etoposide and leucovorin (FELV). The primary end point was OS with secondary end points of objective response rate (ORR), failure-free survival (FFS), quality of life (QOL) and toxicity. In all, 54 patients were recruited with 27 randomly assigned to each arm. The median OS for ECF was 9.02 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.46–11.51) and FELV 12.03 months (95% CI: 9.3–14.7), P=0.2059. Objective response rates were similar for both arms: ECF 19.2% (95% CI: 6.55–39.3); FELV 15% (95% CI: 3.2–37.9), P=0.72. There was significantly increased grade 3/4 neutropenia with FELV vs ECF (53.8 vs 29.5%, respectively, P=0.020). Symptom resolution was impressive for both regimens. This is the largest reported randomised study to date in this setting. ECF did not improve OS compared to FELV, but was associated with less acute toxicity. These data suggest that chemotherapy can prolong OS and achieve good symptomatic relief in advanced biliary cancer

Using "ghost front" to predict the arrival time and speed of CMEs at Venus and Earth

Using in-situ measurements and remote-sensing observations, we study two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that left the Sun on 13-14 June 2012 and impacted both Venus and Earth while the planets were in close radial alignment. The two CMEs generate multiple fronts in STEREO/HI images, which can also be observed in ‘J-map’ as bifurcated features. We present the ‘ghost front’ model to combine remote observations from STEREO/SECCHI and in-situ observations from the Wind and VEX spacecraft, and to derive the kinematics and propagation directions of the CMEs. By fitting the observations of multiple fronts to a kinematically evolving flux rope (KEFR) model and assuming the CMEs undergo deceleration through frictional drag with a steady-state solar wind, we confirm that the outer and inner fronts of the CMEs as detected in HI images are consistent with peaks in Thomson scattered light returned from the flank and nose of a single front for each CME. An interaction takes place between the CME-1 and CME-2 that can be observed in the HI-1 field of view before CME-1 encounters Venus. The multi-point in-situ observations of the shock-CME interaction event serve as further evidence of the interaction between CMEs. The arrival times calculated from the ghost-front model are within 2.5 hours of those observed at VEX and Wind. Our analysis indicates that ghost fronts could provide information about the longitudinally-extended shape of the CME in the field of view of HI-1, which can be used to improve the forecast of ICME arrival time at Earth

Frontal sinuses and human evolution

The frontal sinuses are cavities inside the frontal bone located at the junction between the face and the cranial vault and close to the brain. Despite a long history of study, understanding of their origin and variation through evolution is limited. This work compares most hominin species? holotypes and other key individuals with extant hominids. It provides a unique and valuable perspective of the variation in sinuses position, shape, and dimensions based on a simple and reproducible methodology. We also observed a covariation between the size and shape of the sinuses and the underlying frontal lobes in hominin species from at least the appearance of Homo erectus. Our results additionally undermine hypotheses stating that hominin frontal sinuses were directly affected by biomechanical constraints resulting from either chewing or adaptation to climate. Last, we demonstrate their substantial potential for discussions of the evolutionary relationships between hominin species. Variation in frontal sinus shape and dimensions has high potential for phylogenetic discussion when studying human evolution