Prediction of geomagnetic storm strength from inner heliospheric in situ observations

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B z . Predicting the strength and duration of B z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B z problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B z , and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s−1; observed: 488 ± 30 km s−1), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line

A systematic review of animal predation creating pierced shells: implications for the archaeological record of the Old World

BackgroundThe shells of molluscs survive well in many sedimentary contexts and yield information about the diet of prehistoric humans. They also yield evidence of symbolic behaviours through their use as beads for body adornments. Researchers often analyse the location of perforations in shells to make judgements about their use as symbolic objects (e.g., beads), the assumption being that holes attributable to deliberate human behaviour are more likely to exhibit low variability in their anatomical locations, while holes attributable to natural processes yield more random perforations. However, there are non-anthropogenic factors that can cause perforations in shells and these may not be random. The aim of the study is compare the variation in holes in shells from archaeological sites from the Old World with the variation of holes in shells pierced by mollusc predators.MethodsThree hundred and sixteen scientific papers were retrieved from online databases by using keywords, (e.g., ‘shell beads’; ‘pierced shells’; ‘drilling predators’); 79 of these publications enabled us to conduct a systematic review to qualitatively assess the location of the holes in the shells described in the published articles. In turn, 54 publications were used to assess the location of the holes in the shells made by non-human predators.ResultsAlmost all archaeological sites described shells with holes in a variety of anatomical locations. High variation of hole-placement was found within the same species from the same site, as well as among sites. These results contrast with research on predatory molluscs, which tend to be more specific in where they attacked their prey. Gastropod and bivalve predators choose similar hole locations to humans.DiscussionBased on figures in the analysed articles, variation in hole-location on pierced shells from archaeological sites was similar to variation in the placement of holes created by non-human animals. Importantly, we found that some predators choose similar hole locations to humans. We discuss these findings and identify factors researchers might want to consider when interpreting shells recovered from archaeological contexts.</jats:sec

Combination of Conservative and Interventional Therapy Strategies for Intra- and Extrahepatic Cholangiocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective Survival Analysis

Background. Due to the predominantly advanced stage at the time of diagnosis treatment of cholangiocarcinoma is difficult. Apart from surgical resection, interventional treatment strategies are increasingly used in advanced stage tumours. The aim of the study was a retrospective comparison of the effect of the various forms of treatment on morbidity and mortality. Method. A total of 195 patients, received either chemotherapy or a combination of photodynamic therapy (PDT) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and chemotherapy. Results. The median survival rate for all patients was 15.6 months, 50.8% were still alive 1 year after diagnosis. Patients, who had previously undergone surgery, survived 17.1 months longer than those without surgical treatment (P < .01). Chemotherapy prolonged the survival by 9.2 months (P = .47). Palliative patients under combination of chemotherapy and PDT survived on average 1.8 months longer (P = .28), with chemotherapy and TACE 9.8 months longer (P = .04) compared to chemotherapy alone. Conclusions. It appears that surgical treatment and chemotherapy combined with PDT or TACE may prolong survival

ElEvoHI : A NOVEL CME PREDICTION TOOL FOR HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING COMBINING AN ELLIPTICAL FRONT WITH DRAG-BASED MODEL FITTING

This article has an erratum: DOI 10.3847/0004-637X/831/2/210In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e., the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-phi, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 to +/- 6.5 hr and the arrival speed forecast by approximate to 250 to +/- 53 km s(-1), depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.Peer reviewe

Bacteriological studies of blood, tissue fluid, lymph and lymph nodes in patients with acute dermatolymphangioadenitis (DLA) in course of ‘filarial’ lymphedema

Filarial lymphedema is complicated by frequent episodes of dermatolymphangioadenitis (DLA). Severe systemic symptoms during attacks of DLA resemble those of septicemia. The question we asked was whether bacterial isolates can be found in the peripheral blood of patients during the episodes of DLA. Out of 100 patients referred to us with ‘filarial’ lymphedema 14 displayed acute and five subacute symptoms of DLA. All were on admission blood microfilariae negative but had a positive test in the past. Blood bacterial isolates were found in nine cases, four acute (21%) and five subacute (26%). In 10 acute cases blood cultures were found negative. Six blood isolates belonged to Bacilli, four to Cocci and one was Sarcina. To identify the sites of origin of bacterial dissemination, swabs taken from the calf skin biopsy wounds and tissue fluid, lymph and lymph node specimens were cultured. Swabs from the calf skin biopsy wound contained isolates in nine (47%) cases. They were Bacilli in nine, Cocci in three, Acinetobacter and Erwinia in two cases. Tissue fluid was collected from 10 patients and contained Bacilli in four (40%) and Staphylococci in three (30%). Lymph was drained in four patients and contained isolates in all samples (100%). They were Staphylococcus epidermis, xylosus and aureus, Acinetobacter, Bacillus subtilis and Sarcina. Three lymph nodes were biopsied and contained Staphylococcus chromogenes, xylosus, Enterococcus and Bacillus cereus. In six cases the same phenotypically defined species of bacteria were found in blood and limb tissues or fluids. In the ‘control’ group of patients with lymphedema without acute or subacute changes all blood cultures were negative. Interestingly, swabs from biopsy wound of these patients contained isolates in 80%, tissue fluid in 68%, lymph in 70% and lymph nodes in 58% of cases. In healthy controls, tissue fluid did not contain bacteria, and lymph isolates were found only in 12% of cases. This study demonstrates that patients with acute episodes of DLA reveal bacteriemia in a high percentage of cases. Diversity of blood and tissue bacterial isolates in these patients points to a breakdown of the skin immune barrier in lymphedema and subsequently indiscriminate bacterial colonization of deep tissues and spread to an blood circulation. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Consumer credit in comparative perspective

We review the literature in sociology and related fields on the fast global growth of consumer credit and debt and the possible explanations for this expansion. We describe the ways people interact with the strongly segmented consumer credit system around the world—more specifically, the way they access credit and the way they are held accountable for their debt. We then report on research on two areas in which consumer credit is consequential: its effects on social relations and on physical and mental health. Throughout the article, we point out national variations and discuss explanations for these differences. We conclude with a brief discussion of the future tasks and challenges of comparative research on consumer credit.Accepted manuscrip

79. The effectivness of pain treatment with Strontium 89 in patient with osseous metastases

Aimof this study was to assessment of 89 Sr therapy as pain treatment modality in the group of patients with multiple bone metastases.Material and methodsFrom January 2000 to October 2000 in our center were treated 41 patients; 17 – prostate cancer and 24 – breast cancer patients. All patients had applied only one dose of 150 MBq of 89 Sr. Before and follow-up each patient has been evaluated; performance status according to the Karnofsky Scale and paro intensity according the VAS scale. We did not observe any clinical important haematological side effects. The ionisation dosemetric monitoring of the sources and the radioactive refuse were recorded. The radioactive refuse was storage in special container when the activity decreased to the background.ResultsWe noted relief of paro as follow:-“complete” 18 of 41 patients (8-prostate cancer, 10 – breast cancer),-“partial” 12 of 41 patients (3- prostate cancer, 9- breast cancer),-“no effect” 11 of 41 patients (6-prostate cancer, 5- breast cancer).ConclusionsWe suggest that therapy of painful multiple bone metastases with application of 89 Sr is effective nd safe

Phase III study of 5FU, etoposide and leucovorin (FELV) compared to epirubicin, cisplatin and 5FU (ECF) in previously untreated patients with advanced biliary cancer

The purpose of this study was to determine whether epirubicin, cisplatin and infused 5FU (ECF) improves overall survival (OS) compared to 5FU, etoposide and leucovorin (FELV) in patients with previously untreated advanced biliary cancer in a prospective randomised study. Patients were randomly assigned to receive epirubicin, cisplatin and infused 5FU ECF or bolus 5FU etoposide and leucovorin (FELV). The primary end point was OS with secondary end points of objective response rate (ORR), failure-free survival (FFS), quality of life (QOL) and toxicity. In all, 54 patients were recruited with 27 randomly assigned to each arm. The median OS for ECF was 9.02 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.46–11.51) and FELV 12.03 months (95% CI: 9.3–14.7), P=0.2059. Objective response rates were similar for both arms: ECF 19.2% (95% CI: 6.55–39.3); FELV 15% (95% CI: 3.2–37.9), P=0.72. There was significantly increased grade 3/4 neutropenia with FELV vs ECF (53.8 vs 29.5%, respectively, P=0.020). Symptom resolution was impressive for both regimens. This is the largest reported randomised study to date in this setting. ECF did not improve OS compared to FELV, but was associated with less acute toxicity. These data suggest that chemotherapy can prolong OS and achieve good symptomatic relief in advanced biliary cancer