Assessing Russian Public Opinion on the Ukraine War

How do ordinary Russians really feel about Putin's decision to invade Ukraine? Although some suggest that the early polls - showing about 60% support for the war - can be treated as genuine signals of Russian public opinion, this article explores a number of reasons why these poll results should be treated with great caution or even discounted. These include state censorship; self-censorship and response bias; the existence of protests even in the authoritarian Russian context; and the fact that some of the early polls were asking about a hypothetical invasion that many Russians might not have given much thought. However, the article argues that the most plausible explanation for apparent initial support for the war lies in the manipulation of public opinion through state control of communication channels and the widespread use of censorship, propaganda, and disinformation at home and abroad

Was denken gewöhnliche Russen wirklich über den Krieg in der Ukraine?

Wie denken gewöhnliche Russ:innen wirklich über die Entscheidung von Präsident Putin, in die Ukraine einzumarschieren? Obwohl einiges dafürspricht, dass frühere Umfragen, die Zustimmungswerte um 60% für den Krieg zeigen, als genuine Signale der russischen öffentlichen Meinung gewertet werden können, untersucht dieser Beitrag eine Reihe von Gründen, warum diese Umfrageergebnisse mit großer Vorsicht behandelt oder gar ignoriert werden sollten. Gründe dafür sind u.a. die staatliche Zensur, die Selbstzensur der Bevölkerung und eine verzerrte Beantwortung der Fragen, das Vorhandensein von Protesten sogar in einem autoritären Umfeld in Russland, als auch die Tatsache, dass einige der früheren Umfragen nach einem hypothetischen Einmarsch fragten, über den viele Russ:innen wohl nicht ausreichend nachgedacht haben könnten. Allerdings führt der Beitrag an, dass die plausibelste Erklärung für den offensichtlichen anfänglichen Rückhalt für den Krieg in der Manipulation der öffentlichen Meinung durch staatliche Kontrolle der Kommunikationskanäle und der weitverbreitete Einsatz von Zensur, Propaganda und Desinformation im eigenen Land als auch im Ausland liegt

Smoking cessation and desire to stop smoking in nine countries of the former Soviet Union.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking rates and corresponding levels of premature mortality from smoking-related diseases in the former Soviet Union (fSU) are among the highest in the world. To reduce this health burden, greater focus on smoking cessation is needed, but little is currently known about rates and characteristics of cessation in the fSU. METHODS: Nationally representative household survey data from a cross-sectional study of 18,000 respondents in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine were analyzed to describe patterns of desire and action taken to stop smoking, quit ratios (former ever-smokers as a percent of ever-smokers, without a specified recall period), and help used to stop smoking. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze characteristics associated with smoking cessation and desire to stop smoking. RESULTS: Quit ratios varied from 10.5% in Azerbaijan to 37.6% in Belarus. About 67.2% of respondents expressed a desire to quit, and 64.9% had taken action and tried to stop. The use of help to quit was extremely low (12.6%). Characteristics associated with cessation included being female, over 60, with higher education, poorer health, lower alcohol dependency, higher knowledge of tobacco's health effects, and support for tobacco control. Characteristics associated with desire to stop smoking among current smokers included younger age, poorer health, greater knowledge of tobacco's health effects, and support for tobacco control. CONCLUSIONS: Quit ratios are low in the fSU but there is widespread desire to stop smoking. Stronger tobacco control and cessation support are urgently required to reduce smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality

Male solitary drinking and hazardous alcohol use in nine countries of the former Soviet Union.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence that many people engage in solitary drinking and that it might be associated with negative consequences, to date, little research has focused on this form of drinking behaviour. This study examined the prevalence and factors associated with solitary drinking, and assessed whether it is linked with hazardous alcohol use among males in nine countries of the former Soviet Union (fSU). METHODS: Data came from a cross-sectional population-based survey undertaken in 2010/11 in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. Information was obtained on the frequency of solitary drinking among male regular drinkers (i.e., those consuming alcoholic drinks at least once a month), and on problem drinking (CAGE) and heavy episodic drinking (HED). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine associations between the variables. RESULTS: The prevalence of occasional and frequent solitary drinking ranged from 8.4% (Georgia) to 42.4% (Azerbaijan), and 3.1% (Kazakhstan) to 8.2% (Armenia), respectively. Solitary drinking was associated with being older, divorced/widowed, living alone, having a bad/very bad household financial situation, lower levels of social support, and poor self-rated health. Occasional solitary drinking was linked to problem drinking and HED, while frequent solitary alcohol use was related to problem drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Solitary drinking is relatively common among male regular drinkers in the fSU and is linked to older age, social and economic disadvantage, and hazardous alcohol use

One for all: workplace social context and drinking among railway workers in Ukraine.

Alcohol consumption is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in countries of the former Soviet Union, but little is known about its social determinants. Recent research has suggested that workplace contexts may play a role. Using qualitative methods, we investigate the relationship between workplace social contexts and drinking in Ukraine. We conducted 24 individual semi-structured interviews and two focus group discussions in Lviv and Kharkiv, Ukraine, with male railway employees aged 18+ years. Data were analysed using a thematic analysis approach. Men in our sample expressed strong feelings of interdependence and trust towards their co-workers which we defined as 'social solidarity'. Drinking with co-workers was often seen as obligatory and an integral part of co-worker social occasions. Engagement in sport or family obligations seemed to act as a deterrent to drinking among some workers. A strong sense of solidarity exists between railway co-workers in Ukraine, perhaps a remnant of the Soviet era when individuals relied on informal networks for support. Alcohol may be used as a means of expressing this solidarity. Our findings point to factors, namely engagement in sports and family, which may offer opportunities for interventions to reduce alcohol consumption among workers in Ukraine

In search of patient-centred care in middle income countries: the experience of diabetes care in the former Soviet Union.

In this study we apply the principles of patient-centred care to assess how health systems in middle income countries shape the experiences of patients with a common chronic disease and their care providers. We conducted semi-structured interviews with patients with diabetes, health professionals and key informants. We selected interviewees by purposive and snowball sampling. In total 340 respondents were interviewed in five countries: Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Data were analysed according to a coding framework that was developed by three researchers, who then uncovered salient themes, similarities and differences between the five countries. Access to and consistent use of services was hampered by the lack of coordination and the financial weaknesses in the health systems. In many cases, lack of external support for individual patients left friends and family as the main providers of support. Patients were not expected to have a say or challenge the decisions concerning their treatment. Our study suggests the need for a radically different way of delivering care for people with diabetes and, by extension, other chronic diseases. Reforms should focus on improving self-management, the coordination of care, involving patients in decisions about their care, and providing emotional and practical support for patients

Political Regime Stability / Universities / Agriculture

The topics of this issue are the political regime stability in Russia a month after the start of the attack on Ukraine and the impact of the war on Russian agriculture and Russian universities. The five contributions on political regime stability discuss the reliability of Russian opinion polls on the war, the authoritarian consolidation of recent years, the unity of the elites, the possibilities for protests and opposition, and the control of Russian online media.Die Themen dieser Ausgabe sind die politische Stabilität in Russland einen Monat nach dem Beginn des Angriffs auf die Ukraine sowie die Auswirkungen des Krieges auf die russische Landwirtschaft und auf russische Universitäten. Die insgesamt fünf Beiträge zur politischen Stabilität diskutieren die Zuverlässigkeit russischer Meinungsumfragen zum Krieg, die autoritäre Konsolidierung der letzten Jahre, die Geschlossenheit der Eliten, die Möglichkeiten für Proteste und Opposition sowie die Kontrolle russischer Online-Medien.ISSN:1863-042

Knowledge of the health impacts of smoking and public attitudes towards tobacco control in the former Soviet Union.

AIMS: To describe levels of knowledge on the harmful effects of tobacco and public support for tobacco control measures in nine countries of the former Soviet Union and to examine the characteristics associated with this knowledge and support. METHODS: Standardised, cross-sectional nationally representative surveys conducted in 2010/2011 with 18 000 men and women aged 18 years and older in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Respondents were asked a range of questions on their knowledge of the health effects of tobacco and their support for a variety of tobacco control measures. Descriptive analysis was conducted on levels of knowledge and support, along with multivariate logistic regression analysis of characteristics associated with overall knowledge and support scores. RESULTS: Large gaps exist in public understanding of the negative health effects of tobacco use, particularly in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova. There are also extremely high levels of misunderstanding about the potential effects of 'light' cigarettes. However, there is popular support for tobacco control measures. Over three quarters of the respondents felt that their governments could be more effective in pursuing tobacco control. Higher levels of education, social capital (membership of an organisation) and being a former or never-smoker were associated with higher knowledge on the health effects of tobacco and/or being more supportive of tobacco control measures. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing public awareness of tobacco's health effects is essential for informed decision-making by individuals and for further increasing public support for tobacco control measures

Patterns of public support for price increases on alcohol in the former Soviet Union.

AIMS: To measure levels of public support for price increases on beer and spirits in nine former Soviet Union countries and to examine the characteristics influencing such support. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 2010 with 18,000 respondents aged 18+ in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used. RESULTS: The lowest level of support for price increases on beer were in Georgia (men 5%, women 9%) and Armenia (men 5%, women 11%); and the highest were in Kyrgyzstan (men 30%, women 38%), Azerbaijan (men 27%, women 37%) and Russia (men 23%, women 34%). The lowest levels of support for price increases on spirits were Armenia (men 8%, women 14%) and Georgia (men 14%, women 21%); and the highest were in Kyrgyzstan (men 38%, 47% women) and Moldova (men 36%, women 43%). Characteristics associated with supporting price increases included gender (women), higher education, good economic situation, lower alcohol consumption and greater knowledge of harmful alcohol behaviour. CONCLUSION: Alcohol price increases are an effective means to reduce hazardous alcohol use. Despite opposition in some groups, there is evidence of public support for alcohol price increases in the study countries