Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors

LONG TERM TELEMEDICINE STUDY OF COMPLIANCE IN PARANOID SCHIZOPHRENIA

Background: Low compliance is one of the crucial problems of contemporary psychiatry. Relapses, deterioration of cognitive functioning, negative symptoms, neuroleptic resistance are the examples of many consequences of noncompliance in schizophrenia Subjects and methods: The study was designed to assess the compliance in the 200 patients diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia, all in the state of symptomatic remission and on the stable neuroleptic treatment. The compliance was assessed using a telepsychiatric system, sending reminders: 1 hour before the planned dose to remind them that drug intake is approaching, and at the moment of intake to check if they took the drug. The confirmed drug intakes were counted by the telepsychiatric system. Results: 158 patients completed the study period. The compliance in the first month of the treatment was 44.6% and decreased over the rest of the period to the level of 33.4%. 50% of the schizophrenic patients were compliant at a level lower than 37%. This group was considered the low compliance group, and in this group the compliance increased after 6 months from 9.3% to 10.3% (p<0.0001). Conclusions: The compliance in the group of schizophrenic patients in remission is very low. The telemedicine system improves the compliance in the patients with the worst compliance

The Use of Artificial Neural Networks in Supporting the Annual Training in 400 meter Hurdles

This paper presents an evaluation of the annual cycle for 400 m hurdles using artificial neural networks. The analysis included 21 Polish national team hurdlers. In planning the annual cycle, 27 variables were used, where 5 variables describe the competitor and 22 variables represent the training loads. In the presented solution, the task of generating training loads for the assumed result were considered. The neural models were evaluated by cross-validation method. The smallest error was obtained for the radial basis function network with nine neurons in the hidden layer. The performed analysis shows that at each phase of training the structure of training loads is different

Is there a circumbinary planet around NSVS 14256825?

The cyclic behaviour of (O-C) residuals of eclipse timings in the sdB+M eclipsing binary NSVS 14256825 was previously attributed to one or two Jovian-type circumbinary planets. We report 83 new eclipse timings that not only fill in the gaps in those already published but also extend the time span of the (O-C) diagram by three years. Based on the archival and our new data spanning over more than 17 years we re-examined the up to date system (O-C). The data revealed systematic, quasi-sinusoidal variation deviating from an older linear ephemeris by about 100 s. It also exhibits a maximum in the (O-C) near JD 2,456,400 that was previously unknown. We consider two most credible explanations of the (O-C) variability: the light propagation time due to the presence of an invisible companion in a distant circumbinary orbit, and magnetic cycles reshaping one of the binary components, known as the Applegate or Lanza-Rodono effect. We found that the latter mechanism is unlikely due to the insufficient energy budget of the M-dwarf secondary. In the framework of the third-body hypothesis, we obtained meaningful constraints on the Keplerian parameters of a putative companion and its mass. Our best-fitting model indicates that the observed quasi-periodic (O-C) variability can be explained by the presence of a brown dwarf with the minimal mass of 15 Jupiter masses rather than a planet, orbiting the binary in a moderately elliptical orbit (~ 0.175) with the period of ~ 10 years. Our analysis rules out two planets model proposed earlier.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, accepted to A

Neonatal survival and kidney function after prenatal interventions for obstructive uropathies

Objectives: Prenatal interventions in LUTO (lower urinary tract obstruction) usually are still question of a debate between gynaecologist and paediatric nephrologist. We aimed the study to assess the early survival rate and renal outcome in LUTO foetuses. Material and methods: The study was a prospective data analysis of 39 foetuses from singleton pregnancies. All pregnant women with LUTO in the foetus were qualified for VAS based on a local practice. The mean time of first urine analysis ranged between 13–30 weeks of pregnancy. Primary end-point analysis included live birth, 28d-survival, pulmonary and renal function assessment in neonatal period. Results: From initial number of 39, six patients miscarried before the procedure was performed. Overall, 33 VAS were performer at the mean 21 week of pregnancy (range 14–30 weeks). 25/39 foetuses survived until delivery. Three neonates died in first 3 days of life. In the first month 3 children required peritoneal dialysis, but at 28 day all children were dialysis-free. Overall survival rate at 28 day was 56%. Renal function preservation of the initial group (39) turned out to be low — 18% (7/39). Conclusions: Our study showed average survival curves and complications. LUTO in the foetus had mostly unfavourable outcome in the neonatal period. The prenatal intervention did not increase it significantly and did not guarantee the preservation of normal kidney function

Terapia płodu – ocena skuteczności leczenia wewnątrzmacicznego wrodzonego zwyrodnienia gruczolakowato-torbielowatego płuc (CCAM)

Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate the efficiency of intrauterine treatment of large cysts in fetal lungs using thoracoamniotic shunts. Material and methods: Our observational retrospective study was carried out on a series of 8 fetuses who underwent thoracoamniotic shunting after sonographic statement of large macrocystic lesions in the lungs at the Department of Gynecology, Fertility and Therapy of the Fetus, Polish Mother’s Research Institute, between 2009-2014. Results: Mean gestational age at shunt insertion was 26.6 (range 18-33) weeks. Marked mediastinal shift in theechocardiographic examination was observed in all of the investigated cases. Five fetuses had polyhydramion, with 4 hydropic cases. Out of the remaining 4 fetuses without impaired cardiac function, 3 had very large lesions at initial presentation and 1 had a lesion that was rapidly increasing in size. Shunt insertion was successful in all cases. Only one patient went into premature labor (at 36 weeks of gestation). Mean gestational age at delivery was 38.2 weeks. Cesarean section was necessary in the half of the patients due to obstetric complications. All newborns underwent resection of the lesions. Three of them were operated in the first month after birth. The rest of the operations were postponed. Prenatal diagnosis of congenital cystic adenomatoid malformations was confirmed by pathologists in all cases. Conclusion: Intrauterine therapy of macrocystic lesions in fetal lungs enables to achieve good perinatal outcome. It needs to be considered in every case of a fetus with developing impaired cardiac function.Cel: Celem pracy była ocena skuteczności leczenia wewnątrzmacicznego dużych zmian torbielowatych płuc płodu za pomocą shuntów płucno-owodniowych. Materiały i metody: Obserwacyjnym badaniem retrospektywnym objęto 8 płodów, które po stwierdzeniu makrocystycznych zmian torbielowatych w płucach zakwalifikowano do terapii wewnątrzmacicznej polegającej na założeniu shuntu płucno-owodniowego w Klinice Ginekologii, Rozrodczości i Terapii Płodu Instytutu Centrum Zdrowia Matki Polki w latach 2009-2014. Wyniki: Średni wiek ciąży, w którym zakładano shunty płucno-owodniowe wynosił 26,6 (zakres 18-33) tygodni ciąży. Obraz przesunięcia śródpiersia w badaniu echokardiograficznym stwierdzono u wszystkich płodów. U pięciu płodów stwierdzono wielowodzie, spośród których u czterech występował dodatkowo obrzęk. Spośród pozostałych czterech płodów wydolnych krążeniowo u trzech obserwowano zmiany torbielowate o dużych wymiarach, u jednego stwierdzono szybkie powiększanie się zmiany w kolejnych badaniach ultrasonograficznych. Procedura założenia shuntu płucno-owodniowego powiodła się we wszystkich przypadkach. Jedynie u jednej pacjentki doszło do porodu przedwczenego (36 tydzień ciąży). Średni wiek ciążowy przy porodzie wynosił 38,2. U połowy pacjentek konieczny był poród drogą cięcia cesarskiego z przyczyn położniczych. Wszystkie noworodki poddano resekcji zmian. Trzy z nich poddano operacji w pierwszym miesiącu życia. Pozostałe zabiegi odroczno. Prenatalne rozpoznanie wrodzonej gruczolakowatości torbielowatej płuc zostało potwierdzone histopatologicznie we wszystkich przypadkach. Wnioski: Terapia wewnątrzmaciczna polegająca na zakładaniu shuntów płucno-owodniowych w leczeniu makrocystycznych zmian torbielowatych w płucach pozwala na uzyskiwanie korzystnych wyników perinatalnych. Należy ją rozważyć w każdym przypadku dużych zmian torbielowatych w płucach płodu zagrożonego rozwojem obrzęku

Treatment of twin to twin transfusion syndrome – comparison of two therapeutic methods – amnioreduction and lasertherapy

Background: Twin to twin transfusion syndrome occurs in 15% of monochorionic twin pregnancies. Untreated, TTTS has been reported to have a mortality of nearly 100%. Two main therapies include serial amnioreduction and fetoscopic laser coagulation for the vascular anastomoses. Objectives: The aim of the project was to investigate the optimal diagnostic and therapeutic procedure in pregnancies complicated by TTTS. Additionally, the study was supposed to compare non – invasive and invasive methods of treatment and to show antenatal and postnatal follow – up to 4 months of age. Methods: 42 pregnant women with twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome were assigned to laser therapy using diode laser and 33 pregnant women underwent only several amnioreductions. Selected parameters characterizing the pregnancy were compared in both groups. Results: In the amnioreduction group, the perinatal survival rate seven days after the delivery was 31.8%. The survival rate of at least one twin was 39.4%. As compared to the amnioreduction group, in the laser group the survival rate of at least one twin was observed in 31 cases (31/42) and it was equal to 74%. Neurological complications in the amninoreduction group were obsereved in 19% (4/21) of cases, in the laser group and in 5% (2/40) of neonates at 4 months of age. Conclusions: Currently, the preferred and only method that addresses the cause of the disease is the endoscopic laser coagulation of anastomoses. Comparison of the two treatments shows better outcomes with higher survival rates and minor neurological defects in cases treated with laser coagulation

Terapia płodu – ocena zastosowania shuntu komorowo-owodniowego w leczeniu wodogłowia

Objective: The aim of the study was to establish optimal diagnostic and therapeutic scheme and to assess the efficacy of intrauterine therapy of hydrocephalus. Material and methods: The study was carried out between 1992-2012 on the total of 222 fetuses with hydrocephalus, using Orbis-Sigma and ACCU-Flow valves (168 cases) and Cook’s shunts, according to a strictly defined diagnostic and therapeutic scheme. Results: In the first stage of the study (between 1992-2001), a total of 168 fetuses with prenatally diagnosed hydrocephalus received intrauterine therapy. In 91.6% of the cases the therapy resulted in a decreased size of cerebral ventricles. The valve dislocated in 23 cases (13.6%). Preterm delivery occurred in 44% of the affected neonates. Severe mental impairment occurred in 17.76%, average in 36.8%, and slight in 32.9% of the infants. Normal mental development at the age of 3 was observed in 12.5% of the children. A total of 11.2% of children did not require further neurosurgical reatment. In the second stage of the study (between 2006-2012) after therapy, the size of the right lateral cerebral ventricle decreased by 54.76% (average of 27.54 mm to 12.46 mm) and the left lateral cerebral ventricle decreased by 53.12% (average of 26.41 mm to 12.38 mm ) (p=0.0018). The maximum and minimum width of the cerebral cortex increased by 23.06% and 27% (average of 9.04 mm to 11.75 mm vs. 3.65 mm to 5mm), respectively. Early complications were observed in 22% of the cases: PROM (6), intrauterine fetal death (4), intrauterine infection (1), and premature detachment of the placenta (1). Average gestational age at delivery was 34 weeks, and 24% of the patients delivered at term. Conclusions: • Implantation of ventriculo- amniotic shunts proved to be an effective form of therapy, resulting in normalization of intracranial pressure. • In both stages of therapy, reduction of ventricular size in patients with hydrocephalus and good neurological outcome (45.4% in I stage, 60% in II stage) were observed • In the second stage of therapy, the size of lateral brain ventricles after fetal therapy was significantly lower (54%). A total of 18% of the neonates did not require neurosurgical treatment.Cel pracy: Opracowanie optymalnego sposobu postępowania diagnostyczno-terapeutycznego oraz ocena skuteczności terapii wewnątrzmacicznej wodogłowia u płodu. Materiał i metody: Leczenie wewnątrzmaciczne w przypadkach wodogłowia u płodu prowadzono w dwóch etapach u 222 ciężarnych, początkowo z użyciem zastawek Orbis-Sigma i ACCU-Flow (168 przypadków), a następnie shuntów Cook’a, wg ściśle przyjętego schematu postępowania diagnostyczno-terapeutycznego. Wyniki: W pierwszym etapie (w latach 1992-2001) zabiegi wewnątrzmaciczne wykonano na 168 płodach z rozpoznanym prenatalnie wodogłowiem. W 91,6 % uzyskano zmniejszenie układu komorowego mózgu. W 23 przypadkach (13,6 %) zestaw odbarczający uległ dyslokacji. W 44 % przypadków wystąpił poród przedwczesny. Upośledzenie w stopniu ciężkim wystąpiło u 17,76 % dzieci, w stopniu średnim u 36,8 %, w stopniu lekkim u 32,9%. Prawidłowy rozwój w 3 roku życia wykazywało 12,5 % dzieci, leczenia nie wymagało 11,2 % dzieci. W drugim etapie (2006-2012) wielkość prawej komory bocznej mózgu zmniejszyła się o 54,76% ( średnio z 27,54 mm do 12,46 mm), zaś komory bocznej lewej o 53,12% (średnio z 26,41 mm do 12,38 mm) (p=0,0018). Maksymalna szerokość kory mózgu wzrosła o 23,06% (średnio z 9,04 mm do 11,75mm), natomiast minimalna szerokość o 27% ( średnio z 3,65mm do 5mm). Powikłania wczesne terapii (do 7 dni od zabiegu) zaobserwowano u 22% pacjentek, w tym: PROM u 6 pacjentek, zgon wewnątrzmaciczny płodu u 4 pacjentek, infekcja wewnątrzmaciczna u 1 pacjentki, przedwczesne oddzielenie łożyska u 1 pacjentki. Średni czas trwania ciąży wyniósł 34 tyg. 24% pacjentek urodziło w terminie porodu. Wnioski: • Zakładanie shuntów komorowo-owodniowych okazało się skuteczną formą terapii powodującą normalizację ciśnienia wewnątrzczaszkowego. • W obu etapach obserwowano zmniejszenie wodogłowia po terapii oraz dobre efekty neurologiczne w I etapie – u 45,4% a w II etapie u ponad 60% dzieci. • W drugim etapie terapii szerokość komór bocznych mózgu mierzona po zabiegu była istotnie mniejsza (54%). 18% noworodków nie wymagało leczenia neurochirurgicznego