The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model

We analyse a stochastic SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of population size and within household transmission upon the time to extinction. This is done through two approximations. The first approximation is suitable for all levels of within household transmission and is based upon an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximation for the diseases fluctuations about an endemic level relying on a large population. The second approximation is suitable for high levels of within household transmission and approximates the number of infectious households by a simple homogeneously mixing SIS model with the households replaced by individuals. The analysis, supported by a simulation study, shows that the mean time to extinction is minimized by moderate levels of within household transmission

Brain Structure Changes over Time in Normal and Mildly Impaired Aged Persons

Structural brain changes in aging are known to occur even in the absence of dementia, but the magnitudes and regions involved vary between studies. To further characterize these changes, we analyzed paired MRI images acquired with identical protocols and scanner over a median 5.8-year interval. The normal study group comprised 78 elders (25M 53F, baseline age range 70-78 years) who underwent an annual standardized expert assessment of cognition and health and who maintained normal cognition for the duration of the study. We found a longitudinal grey matter (GM) loss rate of 2.56 ± 0.07 ml/year (0.20 ± 0.04%/year) and a cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) expansion rate of 2.97 ± 0.07 ml/year (0.22 ± 0.04%/year). Hippocampal volume loss rate was higher than the GM and CSF global rates, 0.0114 ± 0.0004 ml/year (0.49 ± 0.04%/year). Regions of greatest GM loss were posterior inferior frontal lobe, medial parietal lobe and dorsal cerebellum. Rates of GM loss and CSF expansion were on the low end of the range of other published values, perhaps due to the relatively good health of the elder volunteers in this study. An additional smaller group of 6 subjects diagnosed with MCI at baseline were followed as well, and comparisons were made with the normal group in terms of both global and regional GM loss and CSF expansion rates. An increased rate of GM loss was found in the hippocampus bilaterally for the MCI group

Peripheral (Deep) but Not Periventricular MRI White Matter Hyperintensities Are Increased in Clinical Vascular Dementia Compared to Alzheimer\u27s Disease

Background and purpose: Vascular dementia (VAD) is a complex diagnosis at times difficult to distinguish from Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). MRI scans often show white matter hyperintensities (WMH) in both conditions. WMH increase with age, and both VAD and AD are associated with aging, thus presenting an attribution conundrum. In this study, we sought to show whether the amount of WMH in deep white matter (dWMH), versus periventricular white matter (PVH), would aid in the distinction between VAD and AD, independent of age. Methods: Blinded semiquantitative ratings of WMH validated by objective quantitation of WMH volume from standardized MRI image acquisitions. PVH and dWMH were rated separately and independently by two different examiners using the Scheltens scale. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated using logistic regression to assess classification of VAD (13 patients) versus AD (129 patients). Clinical diagnoses were made in a specialty memory disorders clinic. Results: Using PVH rating alone, overall classification (area under the ROC curve, AUC) was 75%, due only to the difference in age between VAD and AD patients in our study and not PVH. In contrast, dWMH rating produced 86% classification accuracy with no independent contribution from age. A global Longstreth rating that combines dWMH and PVH gave an 88% AUC. Conclusions: Increased dWMH indicate a higher likelihood of VAD versus AD. Assessment of dWMH on MRI scans using Scheltens and Longstreth scales may aid the clinician in distinguishing the two conditions

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Self-Reported Head Injury and Risk of Late-Life Impairment and AD Pathology in an AD Center Cohort

Aims: To evaluate the relationship between self-reported head injury and cognitive impairment, dementia, mortality, and Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD)-type pathological changes. Methods: Clinical and neuropathological data from participants enrolled in a longitudinal study of aging and cognition (n = 649) were analyzed to assess the chronic effects of self-reported head injury. Results: The effect of self-reported head injury on the clinical state depended on the age at assessment: for a 1-year increase in age, the OR for the transition to clinical mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at the next visit for participants with a history of head injury was 1.21 and 1.34 for the transition from MCI to dementia. Without respect to age, head injury increased the odds of mortality (OR = 1.54). Moreover, it increased the odds of a pathological diagnosis of AD for men (OR = 1.47) but not women (OR = 1.18). Men with a head injury had higher mean amyloid plaque counts in the neocortex and entorhinal cortex than men without. Conclusions: Self-reported head injury is associated with earlier onset, increased risk of cognitive impairment and dementia, increased risk of mortality, and AD-type pathological changes

Environmental risk factors for dementia: a systematic review

Background - Dementia risk reduction is a major and growing public health priority. While certain modifiable risk factors for dementia have been identified, there remains a substantial proportion of unexplained risk. There is evidence that environmental risk factors may explain some of this risk. Thus, we present the first comprehensive systematic review of environmental risk factors for dementia. Methods - We searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases from their inception to January 2016, bibliographies of review articles, and articles related to publically available environmental data. Articles were included if they examined the association between an environmental risk factor and dementia. Studies with another outcome (for example, cognition), a physiological measure of the exposure, case studies, animal studies, and studies of nutrition were excluded. Data were extracted from individual studies which were, in turn, appraised for methodological quality. The strength and consistency of the overall evidence for each risk factor identified was assessed. Results - We screened 4784 studies and included 60 in the review. Risk factors were considered in six categories: air quality, toxic heavy metals, other metals, other trace elements, occupational-related exposures, and miscellaneous environmental factors. Few studies took a life course approach. There is at least moderate evidence implicating the following risk factors: air pollution; aluminium; silicon; selenium; pesticides; vitamin D deficiency; and electric and magnetic fields. Conclusions - Studies varied widely in size and quality and therefore we must be circumspect in our conclusions. Nevertheless, this extensive review suggests that future research could focus on a short list of environmental risk factors for dementia. Furthermore, further robust, longitudinal studies with repeated measures of environmental exposures are required to confirm these associations

\u3cem\u3eABCC9\u3c/em\u3e Gene Polymorphism Is Associated with Hippocampal Sclerosis of Aging Pathology

Hippocampal sclerosis of aging (HS-Aging) is a high-morbidity brain disease in the elderly but risk factors are largely unknown. We report the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) with HS-Aging pathology as an endophenotype. In collaboration with the Alzheimer\u27s Disease Genetics Consortium, data were analyzed from large autopsy cohorts: (#1) National Alzheimer\u27s Coordinating Center (NACC); (#2) Rush University Religious Orders Study and Memory and Aging Project; (#3) Group Health Research Institute Adult Changes in Thought study; (#4) University of California at Irvine 90+ Study; and (#5) University of Kentucky Alzheimer\u27s Disease Center. Altogether, 363 HS-Aging cases and 2,303 controls, all pathologically confirmed, provided statistical power to test for risk alleles with large effect size. A two-tier study design included GWAS from cohorts #1-3 (Stage I) to identify promising SNP candidates, followed by focused evaluation of particular SNPs in cohorts #4-5 (Stage II). Polymorphism in the ATP-binding cassette, sub-family C member 9 (ABCC9) gene, also known as sulfonylurea receptor 2, was associated with HS-Aging pathology. In the meta-analyzed Stage I GWAS, ABCC9 polymorphisms yielded the lowest p values, and factoring in the Stage II results, the meta-analyzed risk SNP (rs704178:G) attained genome-wide statistical significance (p = 1.4 × 10-9), with odds ratio (OR) of 2.13 (recessive mode of inheritance). For SNPs previously linked to hippocampal sclerosis, meta-analyses of Stage I results show OR = 1.16 for rs5848 (GRN) and OR = 1.22 rs1990622 (TMEM106B), with the risk alleles as previously described. Sulfonylureas, a widely prescribed drug class used to treat diabetes, also modify human ABCC9 protein function. A subsample of patients from the NACC database (n = 624) were identified who were older than age 85 at death with known drug history. Controlling for important confounders such as diabetes itself, exposure to a sulfonylurea drug was associated with risk for HS-Aging pathology (p = 0.03). Thus, we describe a novel and targetable dementia risk factor