Overcoming the Impasse in Modern Economics

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Francesca Gagliardi, and David Gindis, 'Overcoming the Impasse in Modern Economics', Competition and Change, Vol. 15 (4): 336-42, November 2011, doi: 10.1179/102452911X13135903675732. Published by SAGE.Peer reviewe

Come back Marshall, all is forgiven? : Complexity, evolution, mathematics and Marshallian exceptionalism

Marshall was the great synthesiser of neoclassical economics. Yet with his qualified assumption of self-interest, his emphasis on variation in economic evolution and his cautious attitude to the use of mathematics, Marshall differs fundamentally from other leading neoclassical contemporaries. Metaphors inspire more specific analogies and ontological assumptions, and Marshall used the guiding metaphor of Spencerian evolution. But unfortunately, the further development of a Marshallian evolutionary approach was undermined in part by theoretical problems within Spencer's theory. Yet some things can be salvaged from the Marshallian evolutionary vision. They may even be placed in a more viable Darwinian framework.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors�the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25 over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8 (95 CI 56·6�58·8) of global deaths and 41·2 (39·8�42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million 192·7 million to 231·1 million global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million 134·2 million to 163·1 million), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million 125·1 million to 163·5 million), high BMI (120·1 million 83·8 million to 158·4 million), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million 103·9 million to 123·4 million), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million 90·8 million to 115·1 million), high total cholesterol (88·7 million 74·6 million to 105·7 million), household air pollution (85·6 million 66·7 million to 106·1 million), alcohol use (85·0 million 77·2 million to 93·0 million), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million 49·3 million to 127·5 million). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Why do Italy? A Comparative Analysis of Bangladeshi Migrants into Five European Countries

The growing occurrence and significance of labour migration from Bangladesh has become an important area of interest in policy research. However, little attention has been given to understand and study the inadequacies in policy that support cross border movements within irregular migration. This study has attempted to understand the gaps and challenges of existing policies and practices that influence regular and irregular labour migration processes from the source country perspective of Bangladesh. The primary survey of the study comprised of Bangladeshi migrant workers who were in the process of arranging the necessary travel documents for labour migration and those who have returned home from several destination countries. The study found that the most productive years of a labour migrant’s life is spent in the destination countries as relatively younger people, and also tend to migrate for jobs abroad. Moreover, the decision-making process to migrate is multidimensional and complex. The respondents were migrating due to a combination of structural and situational realities including economic and non-economic factors. However, an overwhelming majority in cited economic gains as the most important factor. Italy is the most favored destination for both aspirant and returnee migrants, with more than 61 percent of them planning to go to that country, followed by the UK, Germany, France and Spain. The study probably will help better understand the trends and practices of labour migration, and that the recommendations will provide a reference for government and non-government stakeholders at regional and national levels to strengthen accountability systems for informed and empowered labour migration

The Impact of Remittances on Household: An Empirical Study on the Bangladeshi Diaspora in United Kingdom

This paper, the Working-Lesser model has been applied to estimate the impact of remittances on households’ expenditure patterns in Bangladesh. In order to investigate the expenditure patterns, we estimated the regressions for three different categories. The dataset which has used to examine the impact of remittances on household expenditure behaviour was obtained from the Household Survey in Sylhet Division in Bangladesh during the period January to June 2004. Given the specificities in the data, that is, the all positive numbers in current consumption variable and the presence of a considerable number of zero values in the durable goods and education categories, two different estimation methods have been used, that is OLS and Tobit. Regarding the factors affecting the expenditure patterns, the results suggested that as income in the household increases the share of expenditure in current consumption decreases. The effect of income is the opposite on the share of durable goods and education. The age-current consumption relationship is non-linear suggesting a U-shaped function and the lowest point being at the age. Home ownership increases the share of expenditure on current consumption and durable goods, while it decreases the category of education, perhaps reflecting some sort of economic security compared to their counterparts. The estimates suggest that the changes in income of households who receive remittances are spent differently compared to non-recipients across expenditure categories. However, years of migration are not found to affect expenditure patterns. Overall, the findings suggest that there is little evidence that changes in income levels for households receiving remittances are spent very differently from the households not receiving them. Finally, findings may indicate that the policy relevance for remittances is not as important as suggested by the literature for developing countries, especially for those with a similar profile to Bangladesh