The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 m to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraf

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publically released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs, particularly in LEO. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris and can have enough momentum to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. In this paper, we present and detail the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations from both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 in LEO. We review population categories: particle sources for MASTER-2009, particle densities for ORDEM 3.0. We describe data sources and their uses, and supporting models. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model

DebriSat Project Update and Planning

DebriSat Reporting Topics: DebriSat Fragment Analysis Calendar; Near-term Fragment Extraction Strategy; Fragment Characterization and Database; HVI (High-Velocity Impact) Considerations; Requirements Document

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publicly released within the last year. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper describes the population generation and categorization of both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population verification. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are presented and discussed. Future collaborative analysis is noted

Observations of Titan 3C-4 Transtage Fragmentation Debris

The fragmentation of a Titan 3C-4 Transtage (1968-081) on 21 February 1992 is one of only two known break-ups in or near geosynchronous orbit. The original rocket body and 24 pieces of debris are currently being tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The rocket body (SSN# 3432) and several of the original fragments (SSN# 25000, 25001, 30000, and 33511) were observed in survey mode during 2004-2010 using the 0.6-m Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile using a broad R filter. This paper will present a size distribution for all calibrated magnitude data acquired on MODEST. Size distribution plots will also be shown using historical models for small fragmentation debris (down to 10 cm) believed to be associated with the Titan break-up. In November 2010, visible broadband photometry (Johnson/Kron-Cousins BVRI) was acquired with the 0.9-m Small and Moderate Aperture Research Telescope System (SMARTS) at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile on several Titan fragments (SSN# 25001, 33509, 33510) and the parent rocket body. Color index data will be used to determine the fragment brightness distribution and how the data compares to spacecraft materials measured in the laboratory using similar photometric measurement techniques. In 2012, the SSN added 16 additional fragments to the catalogue. MODEST acquired magnitude data on ten Titan fragments in late 2012 and early 2013. The magnitude distribution of all the observed fragments are analyzed as a function of time. In order to better characterize the breakup fragments spectral measurements were acquired on the original rocket body and five Titan fragments using the 6.5-m Magellan telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. The telescopic spectra are compared with laboratory acquired spectra of materials (e.g., Aluminum and various paints) and categorized based on known absorption features for spacecraft materials

Observations of Titan IIIC Transtage Fragmentation Debris

The fragmentation of a Titan IIIC Transtage (1968-081) on 21 February 1992 is one of only two known break-ups in or near geosynchronous orbit. The original rocket body and 24 pieces of debris are currently being tracked by the U. S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The rocket body (SSN# 3432) and several of the original fragments (SSN# 25000, 25001, 30000, and 33511) were observed in survey mode during 2004-2010 using the 0.6-m Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile using a broad R filter. This paper presents a size distribution for all calibrated magnitude data acquired on MODEST. Size distribution plots are also shown using historical models for small fragmentation debris (down to 10 cm) thought to be associated with the Titan Transtage break-up. In November 2010, visible broadband photometry (Johnson/Kron-Cousins BVRI) was acquired with the 0.9-m Small and Moderate Aperture Research Telescope System (SMARTS) at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile on several Titan fragments (SSN 25001, 33509, and 33510) and the parent rocket body (SSN 3432). Color index data are used to determine the fragment brightness distribution and how the data compares to spacecraft materials measured in the laboratory using similar photometric measurement techniques. In order to better characterize the break-up fragments, spectral measurements were acquired on three Titan fragments (one fragment observed over two different time periods) using the 6.5-m Magellan telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile. The telescopic spectra of SSN 25000 (May 2012 and January 2013), SSN 38690, and SSN 38699 are compared with laboratory acquired spectra of materials (e.g., aluminum and various paints) to determine the surface material

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included

Modeling of the Orbital Debris Population of RORSAT Sodium-Potassium Droplets

A large population resident in the orbital debris environment is composed of eutectic sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, released during the reactor core ejection of 16 nuclear-powered Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellites (RORSATs) launched in the 1980s by the former Soviet Union. These electrically conducting RORSAT debris objects are spherical in shape, generating highly polarized radar returns. Their diameters are mostly in the centimeter and millimeter size regimes. Since the Space Surveillance Network catalog is limited to objects greater than 5 cm in low Earth orbit, our current knowledge about this special class of orbital debris relies largely on the analysis of Haystack radar data. This paper elaborates the simulation of the RORSAT debris populations in the new NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2010, which replaces ORDEM2000. The estimation of the NaK populations uses the NASA NaK-module as a benchmark. It follows the general statistical approach to developing all other ORDEM2010-required LEO populations (for various types of debris and across a wide range of object sizes). This paper describes, in detail, each major step in the NaK-population derivation, including a specific discussion on the conversion between Haystack-measured radar-cross-sections and object-size distribution for the NaK droplets. Modeling results show that the RORSAT debris population is stable for the time period under study and that Haystack data sets are fairly consistent over the observations of multiple years