The Space-Weather Awareness Dialogue: Findings and Outlook

This report describes the results of the Space-Weather Awareness Dialogue, hosted by the JRC and co-hosted by DG ENTR, in Brussels on 25-26 October. It summarises the discussions of each of the five sessions and concludes with the main findings on which consensus was reached, as well as an outlook of the future JRC work in the field of space-weather impact on space- and ground-based critical infrastructures.JRC.G.6-Security technology assessmen

Una perspectiva biofísica del cambio agrícola en Austria: dos sistemas agrarios en las décadas de 1830 y 1990

The paper argues for an ecologically-informed agricultural history. It introduces a model-based approach for the analysis of biophysical relations in local agricultural production systems. Data from the Franciscean Cadastre and statistical sources are used to quantify material and energy exchange processes between society and nature, and their development over time for two Austrian case studies. It will be demonstrated that livestock played an integrating and multifunctional role in optimizing land use at the local level in 19th century agriculture. The fossil fuel based industrialization of agriculture in the 20th Century resulted in the disintegration of local land use systems, turning them into throughput systems with high inputs and outputs. On the one hand, this allowed for tremendous increases in area and labour productivity but, on the other hand, significantly decreased the energy efficiency of agriculture

Socio-Ecological Regime Transitions in Austria and the United Kingdom

We employ the concepts of socio-ecological regime and regime transition to better understand the biophysical causes and consequences of industrialization. For two case studies, the United Kingdom and Austria, we describe two steps in a major transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio-ecological regime and the resulting consequences for energy use, land use and labour organization. As the first step, the coal based industrial regime co-existed with an agricultural sector remaining within the bounds of the old regime. In the second step, the oil/electricity based industrial regime, agriculture was integrated into the new pattern and the socio-ecological transition had been completed. Industrialization offers answers to the input and growth related sustainability problems of the agrarian regime but creates new sustainability problems of a larger scale. While today?s industrial societies are stabilizing their resource use, albeit at an unsustainable level, large parts of the global society are in the midst of the old industrial transition. This poses severe problems for global sustainability.socio-ecological regimes, metabolic profiles, transition, social metabolism, energy flows, land use, labour, industrialization, United Kingdom, Austria

Socio-metabolic Transitions in Developing Asia

A possible sustainability transition in developing Asia needs to complement the ongoing transition from an agrarian to an industrial socio-ecological regime. As is known from other world regions, an agrarian-industrial transition involves a major increase in material and energy flows (corresponding to a 2-4 fold increase in the demand for raw materials and energy). The socio-metabolic profile of the South-East Asian region still shows relatively low material and energy consumption per capita, suggesting that major growth may follow. Infrastructures that are closely bound-up in bulk material flows (transport, energy and food sectors) will be critical to future developments. The paper illustrates the challenge and potential solutions from a number of case studies.socio-ecological regime, metabolic profile, industrial transformation, developing Asia, sustainability transition

HyFlux2: a Numerical Model for the Impact Assessment of Severe Inundation Scenario to Chemical Facilities and Downstream Environment

Following a number of catastrophic dam-failure accidents and the accompanying environmental disasters (e.g. Baia Mare, Romania 2000), the tailings ponds of mining activities entered in the scope of the Seveso Directive. This Directive, which deals with the control of major accident hazards, requires the assessment of consequences for all relevant accident scenarios, including those referring to dam rupture. The HyFlux2 model has been developed to simulate flood inundation due to dam break. However, it is able to simulate other severe inundation scenarios such as tsunami-wave run-up and flash flood. The model solves the conservative form of the two-dimensional shallow water equations using the finite volume method. The interface flux is computed by a Flux Vector Splitting method based on a Godunov-type approach. A second-order scheme is applied to the water surface level and velocity, assuring the balance between fluxes and sources also for complex bathymetry and topography, i.e. also in presence of bottom steps and shorelines. The second-order scheme provides results with high accuracy, also in the presence of dry/wet fronts. The model adopts the raster grid so that a GIS Digital Elevation Model can be directly imported into the model. The developed model is validated in this paper with a dam-break case study. It is shown that the HyFlux2 model can correctly account for complex real dam-break flows, giving a satisfactory prediction of the major characteristics such as water depth, water velocity, flood extent, and flood-wave arrival time. It is also demonstrated that the model is robust, computationally efficient and fully mass conservative. The results provided by the model are of great importance for the assessment and management of risk in a number of Seveso establishments with certain characteristics. In case of tailings ponds this information is necessary for modelling the dispersion of pollutants to the downstream environment. Similarly, in the case of downstream chemical facilities where a dam-break can provoke chemical releases, the model provides the necessary information to assess the impact and the risk of such a scenario.JRC.G.7-Traceability and vulnerability assessmen

Analysis of Natech Risk for Pipelines: A Review

Natural events, such as earthquakes and floods, can trigger accidents in oil and gas pipeline with potentially severe consequences to the population and to the environment. These conjoint technological and natural disasters are termed natech accidents. The present literature review focuses on the risk analysis state‐of‐the‐art of seismic and flood events that can impact oil and gas transmission pipelines. The research has focused on methodologies that take into account the characteristics of natech events: for instance, the characterization of the triggering natural hazard and the final accident scenarios, as well as fragility curves for the specific assessment of the potential consequences of natech accidents. The result of this research shows that the literature on seismic risk analysis offers the largest number of examples and methodologies, although most studies focused on structural damage aspects without considering the consequences of a potential loss of containment from the pipelines. Very little work was found on flood risk assessment of natech events in pipelines.JRC.G.6-Security technology assessmen

Space Weather and Power Grids - A Vulnerability Assessment

Strong geomagnetic disturbances resulting from solar activity can have a major impact on ground-based infrastructures, such as power grids, pipelines and railway systems. The high voltage transmission network is particularly affected as currents induced by geomagnetic storms, so-called GICs, can severely damage network equipment possibly leading to system collapse. Therefore, increasing attention has been devoted to understanding the vulnerability of power grids to space weather conditions. In this study, we aim at analysing the vulnerability of power grids to extreme space weather. By means of complex network theory, we propose an analysis approach to understand how geomagnetically induced currents are driven through the power network based on its structural and physical characteristics. As a test network we used the Finnish power grid for which a study using network centrality measures was carried out to understand which components are the most critical for the system when exposed to an electric field of 1V/km. This information is helpful as the identification and ranking of critical components can help to identify where and how mitigation measures should be implemented to increase the system’s resilience to space weather impact. We have also subjected the grid to varying angles of the electric field. In addition, we have carried out a scoping study adding load flow to the GICs induced in the system. The preliminary results suggest that the benchmark system can resist GICs induced from high intensity electric fields. Moreover, the simplified network seems more prone to collapse if the electric field is oriented northward. Work is underway to further validate and expand our approach with the aim to eventually carry out a risk assessment of space weather impact on the power grid at EU level.JRC.G.5-Security technology assessmen

Approaches to Tsunami Risk Assessment

This report provides an overview of the existing methods of tsunami risk assessment. The analyses focus on the process of risk assessment, its basic steps and output. Therefore, the specific components of risk, such as hazard, consequence or vulnerability are not discussed in detail. The reviewed studies are classified according to the country of origin or their place of the application. Since literature on tsunami risk assessment is limited, other risk assessment methods applied for floods and landslides are briefly discussed and studied their commonalities with tsunami risk. In conclusion, the report suggests a possible strategy for addressing the tsunami risk in the TRANSFER project. For this purpose, a general framework for tsunami risk assessment has been prepared.JRC.G.7-Traceability and vulnerability assessmen

Postface “From natural hazards to technological disasters”

The importance of the impact of natural hazards on critical infrastructures and a lack of research on the problem, compared with studies of natural hazards themselves, prompted us to guest-edit a Special Issue on “Natural Hazards and Technological Disasters” in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences. The special issue deals with the relationship between natural hazardous processes and the technosphere. The articles included in the special issue address a variety of topics including methodologies and tools for Natech risk assessment, procedures for loss estimations, case-study descriptions of Natech events and analysis of other natural-hazard impact on technological systems. Therefore, the main purpose of the Special Issue is to raise awareness of the increasing problem of natural hazards triggering technological disruptions and accidents and to propose methods and tools to mitigate the associated risk. This article is the postface to this Special Issue.JRC.G.6-Security technology assessmen

Lessons Learned from Oil Pipeline Natech Accidents and Recommendations for Natech Scenario Development - Final Report

Natural hazards can impact oil transmission pipelines with potentially adverse consequences on the population and the environment. They can also cause significant economic impacts to pipeline operators. Currently, there is only limited historical information available on the dynamics of natural hazard impact on pipelines and Action A6 of the EPCIP 2012 Programme aimed at shedding light on this issue. This report presents the findings of the second year of the study that focused on the analysis of onshore hazardous liquid transmission pipeline natechs, with special emphasis on natural hazard impact and damage modes, incident consequences, and lessons learned for scenario building. Due to the limited amount of data available on European pipeline natech incidents, the study was supplemented with information from U.S. pipeline natech incidents.JRC.G.5-Security technology assessmen