Aging of a giant: a stochastic population forecast for China, 2001-2050

This paper presents a stochastic population forecast for China with a special emphasis on population aging. Stochastic forecasting methods have the advantage of producing a projection of the future population including a probabilistic prediction interval. The socalled scaled model for error was used to quantify the uncertainty attached to the population predictions in this study. Data scarcity was a major problem in the specification of the expected error of the population forecast. Therefore, the error structures estimated for European countries were employed with some modifications taking the large size and heterogeneity of the Chinese population into account. The stochastic forecast confirms the expectation of extremely rapid population aging during the first half of the 21st century in China. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) will increase with certainty. By mid-century, with 80% probability, the OADR will lie between 0.41 and 0.56, with the median of the predictive distribution being 0.48, nearly five-fold its current value of 0.1. In particular, the oldest-old population will grow faster than any other age group. This development has major implications for China: to smoothly adjust current birth control policies to less restrictive ones, strengthen the family support system, and improve the social security system for the elderly.China

High maternal androstenedione levels during pregnancy in a small precocial mammal with female genital masculinisation

-Masculinisation of female genitalia is an intriguing phenomenon amongst some mammalian species and its endocrinological basis as well as its adaptive value is still heavily debated. We recently reported female genital masculinisation in Cavia magna. The closely related C. aperea, does not show such masculinisation providing an unique opportunity to investigate potential endocrinological mechanisms underlying this difference. For both species we determined plasma levels of androstenedione and testosterone in adults of both sexes, and in females during different stages of pregnancy. Consistent with the normal mammalian pattern males showed higher levels of both androgens than conspecific females. Androgen profiles during pregnancy differed significantly between C. magna and C. aperea females: during mid-pregnancy androstenedione levels were strongly elevated in the masculinised C. magna, but not in C. aperea, indicating that high levels of this androgen may be involved in the differentiation of masculinized genitalia in female C. magna, as has been suggested for the spotted hyena. In both C. magna and the spotted hyena the pups show a highly advanced state of maturation, but in contrast to the hyena female C. magna are not overly aggressive. We therefore propose that female genital masculinisation might be a side effect of early exposure to elevated levels of maternal androgens that might be selected for to speed up precocial development.

Between-Year Survival and Rank Transitions in Male Black-Capped Chickadees (\u3cem\u3ePoecile Atricapillus\u3c/em\u3e): A Multistate Modeling Approach

In dominance-structured animal societies, variation in individual fitness is often related to social status. Like many passerine birds, Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) have a short average adult life-expectancy (Ø2 years); however, the maximum recorded life span is \u3e5× as long. Enhanced annual survival could contribute to greater lifetime reproductive success for male Black-capped Chickadees with high social rank. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to estimate annual survival of male Black-capped Chickadees in Ontario using resighting and recapture data collected from 1997 to 2002. Our goal was to evaluate support for an influence of rank on annual survival and estimate its effect size for a food-supplemented study site. We also statistically modeled the probability of between-year rank transitions. Model selection based on Akaike’s information criterion provided support for an effect of rank on survival. However, multimodel inference revealed that the size of the effect was rather small. Over the six study years, model-averaged estimates of the survival benefit of high versus low rank ranged from 5.0 to 7.3%. As expected, survival was strongly year-dependent, with model-averaged estimates of annual survival probability varying between 0.36 and 0.73. Age was an important predictor of the probability of rank transitions. Low-ranked second-year birds were less likely than older low-ranked birds to advance to high rank between years; likewise, high-ranked after-second-year birds were less likely to drop in rank. Other studies have found larger effects of rank on survival than we observed here. Future research should consider how interactions between social and environmental factors influence annual survival

Nitric Oxide in the Control of the in vitro Proliferation and Differentiation of Human Hematopoietic Stem and Progenitor Cells

Hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) transplantation is the best-studied cellular therapy and successful in vitro control of HSPCs has wide clinical implications. Nitric oxide (NO) is a central signaling molecule in vivo and has been implicated in HSPC mobilization to the blood stream in mice. The influence of NO on HSPC behavior in vitro is, however, largely obscure due to the variety of employed cell types, NO administration systems, and used concentration ranges in the literature. Additionally, most studies are based on murine cells, which do not necessarily mimic human HSPC behavior. Thus, the aim of the present study was the systematic, concentration-dependent evaluation of NO-mediated effects on human HSPC behavior in vitro. By culture in the presence of the long-term NO donor diethylenetriamine/nitric oxide adduct (DETA/NO) in a nontoxic concentration window, a biphasic role of NO in the regulation of HSPC behavior was identified: Low DETA/NO concentrations activated classical NO signaling, identified via increased intracellular cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) levels and proteinkinases G (PKG)-dependent vasodilator-stimulated phosphoprotein (VASP) phosphorylation and mediated a pro-proliferative response of HSPCs. In contrast, elevated NO concentrations slowed cell proliferation and induced HSPC differentiation. At high concentrations, s-nitrosylation levels were elevated, and myeloid differentiation was increased at the expense of lymphoid progenitors. Together, these findings hint at a central role of NO in regulating human HSPC behavior and stress the importance and the potential of the use of adequate NO concentrations for in vitro cultures of HSPCs, with possible implications for clinical application of in vitro expanded or differentiated HSPCs for cellular therapies

A DATA WAREHOUSE DESIGN FOR THE DETECTION OF FRAUD IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN BY USING THE BENFORD’S LAW

Large data volumes and the inability to analyse them enables fraudulent activities to go unnoticed in supply chain management processes such as procurement, warehouse management and inventory management. This fraud increases the cost of the supply chain management and a fraud detection mechanism is necessary to reduce the risk of fraud in this business area. This study was carried out in order to develop a data warehouse design that supports forensic analytics by using the Benford’s law in order to detect fraud. The approach relies on a generic and re-usable store procedure for data analytics. The data warehouse was tested with two datasets collected from an operational supply chain database from the inventory management and warranty claims processes. The results of the research showed that the supply chain data analyzed obeys to Benford’s theory and that parameterized stored procedures with Dynamic SQL provide an excellent tool to analyze data in the supply chain for possible fraud detection. The implications of the results of the study are that the Benford’s law can be used to detect fraud in the supply chain with the help of parameterized stored procedures and a data ware house, this can ease the workload of the fraud analyst in the supply chain function. Although the research only used data from the inventory management and warranty claim processes, the proposed store procedures can be extended to any process in the supply chain making the results generalizable to the supply chain management process

3D models of the hematopoietic stem cell niche under steady-state and active conditions

Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in the bone marrow are able to differentiate into all types of blood cells and supply the organism each day with billions of fresh cells. They are applied to cure hematological diseases such as leukemia. The clinical need for HSCs is high and there is a demand for being able to control and multiply HSCs in vitro. The hematopoietic system is highly proliferative and thus sensitive to anti-proliferative drugs such as chemotherapeutics. For many of these drugs suppression of the hematopoietic system is the dose-limiting toxicity. Therefore, biomimetic 3D models of the HSC niche that allow to control HSC behavior in vitro and to test drugs in a human setting are relevant for the clinics and pharmacology. Here, we describe a perfused 3D bone marrow analog that allows mimicking the HSC niche under steady-state and activated conditions that favor either HSC maintenance or differentiation, respectively, and allows for drug testing

Measurement outcomes that do not occur and their role in entanglement transformations

The characterization of transformations among entangled pure states via local operations assisted by classical communication (LOCC) is a crucial problem in quantum information theory for both theoretical and practical reasons. As LOCC has a highly intricate structure, sometimes the larger set of separable (SEP) maps is considered, which has a mathematically much simpler description. In the literature, mainly SEP maps consisting of invertible Kraus operators have been taken into account. In this paper we show that the consideration of those maps is not sufficient when deciding whether a state can be mapped to another via general SEP transformations. This is done by providing explicit examples of transformations among pure three- and five-qubit states, which are feasible via SEP maps containing singular Kraus operators, however, not possible via SEP maps containing solely regular Kraus operators. The key point that allows to construct the SEP maps is to introduce projective measurements that occur with probability zero on the input state. The fact that it is not sufficient to consider SEP maps composed out of regular Kraus operators even in the case of pure state transformations, also affects the results on LOCC transformations among pure states. However, we show that non-invertible Kraus operators do not help in state transformations under LOCC with finitely many rounds of classical communication, i.e. the necessary and sufficient condition for SEP transformations with invertible Kraus operators is still a necessary condition for convertibility under finite-round LOCC. Moreover, we show that the results on transformations via SEP that are not possible with LOCC (including infinitely many rounds of classical communication) presented in Hebenstreit et al 2016 Phys. Rev. A 93, 012339 are not affected.BK thanks R Brieger and D Sauerwein for discussions related to the characterization of the local unitary symmetries of special graph states. ME, MH, and BK acknowledge financial support from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) grant DK-ALM: W1259-N27 and the SFB BeyondC (Grant No. F7107). Furthermore, ME and BK acknowledge support of the Austrian Academy of Sciences via the Innovation Fund 'Research, Science and Society' as well as support from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) grant FG5-L. CS acknowledges support by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): J 4258-N27 and the ERC (Consolidator Grant 683107/TempoQ). JIdV acknowledges financial support by the Spanish MINECO through Grants MTM2017-84098-P and MTM2017-88385-P and by the Comunidad de Madrid through Grant QUITEMAD-CM P2018/TCS-4342