Regional convergence and economic development in the EU : the relation between national growth and regional disparities within the old and the new member states

While European integration has substantially contributed to economic convergence on a national scale, the diverging development of highly developed metropolitan regions and lagging rural areas has become a growing challenge especially for the new member states in Central and Eastern Europe. Although it is widely assumed that economically growing countries are usually confronted with rising inequalities, the question, whether there is a direct relation between total economic growth and regional divergence, has not been sufficiently answered so far. In this context the paper inquires to which degree the process of economic restructuring and catching-up in European countries is accompanied by increasing spatial disparities. The empirical investigation of recent GDP data confirms the trend towards economic convergence on a national scale. On a regional scale, however, the process of convergence was much slower and almost came to an end after the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2008. The reason for these diverging results can be found in the change of disparities within the countries: While regional inequalities largely remained unchanged in the majority of the old member states, the gap between rich and poor regions widened in most countries which accessed the EU since 2004. This trend slowed down or even reversed after 2008, which seems to confirm the assumption that economic growth intensifies spatial divergence. A detailed analysis of the correlation between national growth rates and the change of regional disparities, however, indicates that growing divergence in the new member states can hardly be explained by the speed of total economic growth, but rather by other specific conditions there. A reflection on the mechanisms of agglomeration economies suggests three arguments for the strong diverging effect of the catching-up processes in the new member states, which await to be tested empirically in future research.peer-reviewe

Regional convergence and economic development in the EU : the relation between national growth and regional disparities within the old and the new member states

While European integration has substantially contributed to economic convergence on a national scale, the diverging development of highly developed metropolitan regions and lagging rural areas has become a growing challenge especially for the new member states in Central and Eastern Europe. Although it is widely assumed that economically growing countries are usually confronted with rising inequalities, the question, whether there is a direct relation between total economic growth and regional divergence, has not been sufficiently answered so far. In this context the paper inquires to which degree the process of economic restructuring and catching-up in European countries is accompanied by increasing spatial disparities. The empirical investigation of recent GDP data confirms the trend towards economic convergence on a national scale. On a regional scale, however, the process of convergence was much slower and almost came to an end after the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2008. The reason for these diverging results can be found in the change of disparities within the countries: While regional inequalities largely remained unchanged in the majority of the old member states, the gap between rich and poor regions widened in most countries which accessed the EU since 2004. This trend slowed down or even reversed after 2008, which seems to confirm the assumption that economic growth intensifies spatial divergence. A detailed analysis of the correlation between national growth rates and the change of regional disparities, however, indicates that growing divergence in the new member states can hardly be explained by the speed of total economic growth, but rather by other specific conditions there. A reflection on the mechanisms of agglomeration economies suggests three arguments for the strong diverging effect of the catching-up processes in the new member states, which await to be tested empirically in future research.peer-reviewe

The SASI Model

The task of the SASI project was to identify the way transport infrastructure contributes to regional socio-economic development in different regional contexts. For this purpose an interactive computer simulation model for forecasting the impacts of transport infrastructure investments and transport system improvements of the trans-European transport networks on socio-economic activities in the regions of Europe was developed (see the other SASI reports in the SASI Home Page). This report describes the implementation of the SASI model, i.e. the application of empirical data to the model and the estimation of its parameters

Measuring Political Commitment in Statistical Models for Evidence-based Agenda Setting in Nonmotorized Traffic

When investigating national and international transport policies of the last decade, an ever increasing emphasis on promoting non-motorized transport modes such as walking or cycling can be identified, aiming at reaching multiple political targets (eg. reducing pollution, increasing health or lowering land consumption). However, despite substantial financial efforts being put into infrastructural or awarenessraising activities, achieving the desired modal shift towards active mobility remains a challenge. This is frequently due to unclear cause and effect patterns between active mode shares and their determinants, which in turn leads to uncoordinated or highly fragmented initiatives that impede target-oriented planning. An internationally adopted approach to overcome this problem is applying aggregated statistical models that explain modal choice involving multiple regression techniques and hypothetical covariates. Still, general critique against these models points out that important intangible soft factors such as attitudinal characteristics of the local population or mind-sets and political commitment of decision makers are not duly reflected. Also, for Austria there is currently no systematic holistic approach to explain spatial variance in active travel shares on the scale of municipalities. Hence the main objective of our research is to design a comprehensive macroscopic model-based approach for the quantitative explanation of modal split shares in active travel modes in Austria. In our approach we attach great importance to the inclusion of soft factors in order to contribute novel findings on the dynamics behind active travel. The research outcomes will aid decision makers and planners in their question where and more specifically, how to effectively invest into active mobility by revealing key soft factors and intangible determinants of active travel mode shares alongside a broad range of more known, traditional factors. Based on this evidence-based decision support approach it is possible to simulate impacts of actions when aiming at locally promoting active travel modes

Anthropometric and Metabolic Risk Factors for ESRD Are Disease-Specific: Results from a Large Population-Based Cohort Study in Austria.

Anthropometric and metabolic risk factors for all-cause end-stage renal disease (ESRD) may vary in their impact depending on the specific primary renal disease.In this Austrian population-based prospective cohort study (n = 185,341; 53.9% women) the following data were collected between 1985 and 2005: age, sex, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG) from 1988, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and smoking status. These data were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry to identify ESRD patients. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause ESRD as well as for cause-specific ESRD due to the following primary renal diseases: autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), vascular nephropathy (VN), diabetic nephropathy (DN) and other diseases (OD).During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 participants developed ESRD (ADPKD 36, VN 97, DN 86, and OD 184). All parameters except TG and GGT were significantly associated with all-cause ESRD risk. Particular cause-specific ESRD risk factor patterns were found: for ADPKD increased risk from hypertension (HR 11.55); for VN from smoking (HR 1.81), hypertension (HR 2.37), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 9.27); for DN from smoking (HR 1.77), BMI (≥30 vs. 18.5-24.9 kg/m2: HR 7.55), FBG (≥6.94 vs. <5.55 mmol/L: HR 7.67), hypertension (HR 1.08), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 2.02), GGT (HR 2.14); and for OD from hypertension (HR 2.29), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 6.99) and TC (≥6.22 vs. <5.18 mmol/L: HR 1.56).Particular anthropometric and metabolic ESRD risk factors differ in importance depending on the primary renal disease. This needs to be considered for future preventive and therapeutic strategies addressing cause-specific ESRD

Sex- and Time-Dependent Patterns in Risk Factors of End-Stage Renal Disease: A Large Austrian Cohort with up to 20 Years of Follow-Up.

We investigated the association between metabolic factors and End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and quantified the magnitude of their influence dependent on sex and time of exposure up to 20 years.A prospective cohort study was conducted to determine risk factors for the development of ESRD. From 1988 to 2005 185,341 persons (53.9% women) participated in the "Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Programme" (VHM&PP). Data on body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic (BPsys) and diastolic (BPdia) blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and smoking status were collected. Data of the population-based VHM&PP were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD, stratified by sex and 5-year time intervals.During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 patients (39.1% women) developed ESRD. Significant risk factors were: BMI (per 1 kg/m2) HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.06), FBG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.09 (1.05-1.12), BPsys (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.10 (1.07-1.14), BPdia (per 5 mmHg) HR 1.09 (1.03-1.15), TG (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.07 (1.02-1.13), TC (per 1 mmol/L) HR 1.22 (1.13-1.32). We observed a sex-specific risk pattern with an increased ESRD risk for men for increasing TG and smoking, and for women for increasing BMI and GGT. In time interval analyses BPsys and TC were associated with early ESRD onset, whereas BMI, FBG, BPdia and GGT were associated with later onset.Anthropometric and metabolic factors are differentially associated with the long-term risk for ESRD in a sex- and time-dependent manner. Consideration of these patterns in preventive and therapeutic strategies could have an impact on ESRD incidence

Hazard ratio (dark line, 95% CI: light lines) for cause-specific ESRD for body mass index (BMI) and blood glucose levels, modeled using cubic restricted splines.

<p>(a) ADPKD, (b) vascular nephropathy, (c) diabetic nephropathy and (d) other diseases. Medians of metabolic parameters were used as reference. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status and mutually adjusted for metabolic parameters (as linear terms, logarithmized for triglycerides and gamma-GT).</p