Flood hazard risk forecasting index (FHRFI) for urban areas: the Hurricane Harvey case study

Hurricane Harvey caused at least 70 confirmed deaths, with estimated losses in the Houston urban area of Texas reaching above US$150 billion, making it one of the costliest natural disasters ever in the United States. The study tests two types of forecast index to provide surface flooding (inundation) warning over the Houston area: a meteorological index based on a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, and a new combined meteorological and land surface index, the flood hazard risk forecasting index (FHRFI), where land surface is used to condition the meteorological forecast. Both indices use the total precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SoT) products from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) medium‐range ensemble forecasting system (ENS). Forecasts at the medium range (3–14 days ahead) were assessed against 153 observed National Weather Service (NWS) urban flood reports over the Houston urban area between August 26 and 29, 2017. It is shown that the method provides skilful forecasts up to four days ahead using both approaches. Moreover, the FHRFI combined index has a hit ratio of up to 74% at 72 hr lead time, with a false‐alarm ratio of only 45%. This amounts to a statistically significant 20% increase in performance compared with the meteorological indices. This first study demonstrates the importance of including land‐surface information to improve the quality of the flood forecasts over meteorological indices only, and that skilful flood warning in urban areas can be obtained from the NWP using the FHRFI

Challenges to the surveillance of non-communicable diseases – a review of selected approaches

Background: The rising global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) necessitates the institutionalization of surveillance systems to track trends and evaluate interventions. However, NCD surveillance capacities vary across high- and low- and middle-income countries. The objective of the review was to analyse existing literature with respect to structures of health facility-based NCD surveillance systems and the lessons low- and middle-income countries can learn in setting up and running these systems. Methods: A literature review was conducted using Pub Med, Web of Knowledge and WHOLIS databases to identify citations published in English language between 1993 and 2013. In total, 20 manuscripts met inclusion criteria: 12 studies were analysed in respect to the surveillance approach, eight supporting documents in respect to general and regional challenges in NCD surveillance. Results: Eleven of the 12 studies identified were conducted in high-income countries. Five studies had a single disease focus, three a multiple NCD focus and three covered communicable as well as non-communicable diseases. Nine studies were passive assisted sentinel surveillance systems, of which six focused on the primary care level and three had additional active surveillance components, i.e., population-based surveys. The supporting documents reveal that NCD surveillance is rather limited in most low- and middle-income countries despite the increasing disease burden and its socioeconomic impact. Major barriers include institutional surveillance capacities and hence data availability. Conclusions: The review suggests that given the complex system requirements, multiple surveillance approaches are necessary to collect comprehensive information for effective NCD surveillance. Sentinel augmented facility-based surveillance, preferably supported by population-based surveys, can provide improved evidence and help budget scarce resources. Electronic supplementary material: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2570-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The active domain of the herpes simplex virus protein icp47 - a potent inhibitor of the transporter associated with antigen processing (tap)

The herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) protein ICP47 binds specifically to the transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP), thereby blocking peptide-binding and translocation by TAP and subsequent loading of peptides onto MHC class I molecules in the endoplasmic reticulum. in consequence, HSV-infected cells are masked for immune recognition by cytotoxic T-lymphocytes. To investigate the molecular details of this, so far, unique transporter-inhibitor interaction, the active domain and critical amino acid residues were identified by using short overlapping fragments and systematic deletions of the viral inhibitor. A fragment of 32 amino acid residues, ICP47(3-34), was found to be the minimal region harboring an activity to inhibit peptide-binding to TAP comparable to the action of the full-length protein and therefore representing the active domain. Further N or C-terminal truncations cause an abrupt loss in activity. Within the identified active domain, various mutants and chimeras of ICP47 derived from HSV-1 and HSV-2 helped to identify amino acid residues critical for TAP inhibition. On the basis of these results, therapeutic drugs could be designed that are applicable in treatment of allograft rejection or in novel vaccination strategies against HSV, restoring the ability of the immune system to recognize HSV-infected cells. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited. [References: 29

Identification of a dynein molecular motor component in Torpedo electroplax; binding and phosphorylation of Tctex-1 by Fyn1The nucleotide sequence for Torpedo Tctex-1 has been deposited in the GenBank data base under GenBank Accession Number AF086756.1

AbstractThe microtubule protein Tctex-1 was cloned from Torpedo electroplax, a biochemical model of the neuromuscular junction, using the unique domain of Fyn in the yeast two hybrid system. Binding of Tctex-1 and Fyn also occurred in vitro. Torpedo Tctex-1 was contained within the molecular motor protein dynein. A Src class kinase was also complexed with dynein. Tctex-1 was enriched in electric organ vs. skeletal muscle, was present in the postsynaptic membrane, and coprecipitated with the acetylcholine receptor. The sequence of Tctex-1 contained a tyrosine phosphorylation motif and Tctex-1 could be phosphorylated by Fyn in vitro and in vivo. These data demonstrated that Tctex-1-containing dynein is a cytoskeletal element at the acetylcholine receptor-enriched postsynaptic membrane and suggested that Tctex-1 may be a substrate for Fyn