The components of the real exchange rate in Hungary

This paper provides a statistical analysis of the components of real exchange rate in Hungary for the period 1991-1996. The real exchange rate is decomposed into a tradable and a nontradable rate. The following main conclusions are valid: 1. The Balassa-Samuelson effect, which presumes a real appreciation when productivity in the tradable sector grows faster than in the nontradable sector, is markedly substantiated by the data for Hungary. 2. The homogeneity assumption of the traded sector is not justified by the data. The traded sector defined by the usual statistical terms does not indicate PPP to hold. 3. The relative (common currency) price of the traded sector shows fluctuations driven by changes in the nominal exchange rate. 4. Fluctuations in the relative (common currency) price of the traded sector are larger than fluctuations of relative prices of nontradables in terms of tradables. In other words prices of the traded and non-traded sectors behave similarly to nominal exchange rate shocks: they have similar inertia. 5. A summary conclusion comprising findings of 1-4: for Hungarian data the definition of statistical categories of trading and non-trading sectors are useful in separating industries according to their rate of technological change, but it is much less helpful in separating good substitutes from poor substitutes for internationally traded goods. In section 1 we describe the way we decomposed the real exchange rate. In section 2 we try to explain the determinants of the components, in section 3 we try to arrive to a quantification of the rate of change of the equilibrium real exchange rate in Hungary.

Signatures and Induction Principles for Higher Inductive-Inductive Types

Higher inductive-inductive types (HIITs) generalize inductive types of dependent type theories in two ways. On the one hand they allow the simultaneous definition of multiple sorts that can be indexed over each other. On the other hand they support equality constructors, thus generalizing higher inductive types of homotopy type theory. Examples that make use of both features are the Cauchy real numbers and the well-typed syntax of type theory where conversion rules are given as equality constructors. In this paper we propose a general definition of HIITs using a small type theory, named the theory of signatures. A context in this theory encodes a HIIT by listing the constructors. We also compute notions of induction and recursion for HIITs, by using variants of syntactic logical relation translations. Building full categorical semantics and constructing initial algebras is left for future work. The theory of HIIT signatures was formalised in Agda together with the syntactic translations. We also provide a Haskell implementation, which takes signatures as input and outputs translation results as valid Agda code

Star-galaxy separation strategies for WISE-2MASS all-sky infrared galaxy catalogs

We combine photometric information of the WISE and 2MASS all-sky infrared databases, and demonstrate how to produce clean and complete galaxy catalogs for future analyses. Adding 2MASS colors to WISE photometry improves star-galaxy separation efficiency substantially at the expense of loosing a small fraction of the galaxies. We find that 93% of the WISE objects within W1<15.2 mag have a 2MASS match, and that a class of supervised machine learning algorithms, Support Vector Machines (SVM), are efficient classifiers of objects in our multicolor data set. We constructed a training set from the SDSS PhotoObj table with known star-galaxy separation, and determined redshift distribution of our sample from the GAMA spectroscopic survey. Varying the combination of photometric parameters input into our algorithm we show that W1 - J is a simple and effective star-galaxy separator, capable of producing results comparable to the multi-dimensional SVM classification. We present a detailed description of our star-galaxy separation methods, and characterize the robustness of our tools in terms of contamination, completeness, and accuracy. We explore systematics of the full sky WISE-2MASS galaxy map, such as contamination from Moon glow. We show that the homogeneity of the full sky galaxy map is improved by an additional J<16.5 mag flux limit. The all-sky galaxy catalog we present in this paper covers 21,200 sq. degrees with dusty regions masked out, and has an estimated stellar contamination of 1.2% and completeness of 70.1% among 2.4 million galaxies with $z_{med}= 0.14$. WISE-2MASS galaxy maps with well controlled stellar contamination will be useful for spatial statistical analyses, including cross correlations with other cosmological random fields, such as the Cosmic Microwave Background. The same techniques also yield a statistically controlled sample of stars as well.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Cosmic troublemakers: the Cold Spot, the Eridanus Supervoid, and the Great Walls

The alignment of the CMB Cold Spot and the Eridanus supervoid suggests a physical connection between these two relatively rare objects. We use galaxy cata\-logues with photometric (2MPZ) and spectroscopic (6dF) redshift measurements, supplemented by low-redshift compilations of cosmic voids, in order to improve the 3D mapping of the matter density in the Eridanus constellation. We find evidence for a supervoid with a significant elongation in the line-of-sight, effectively spanning the total redshift range $z<0.3$. Our tomographic imaging reveals important substructure in the Eridanus supervoid, with a potential interpretation of a long, fully connected system of voids. We improve the analysis by extending the line-of-sight measurements into the antipodal direction that interestingly crosses the Northern Local Supervoid at the lowest redshifts. Then it intersects very rich superclusters like Hercules and Corona Borealis, in the region of the Coma and Sloan Great Walls, as a possible compensation for the large-scale matter deficit of Eridanus. We find that large-scale structure measurements are consistent with a central matter underdensity $\delta_0 \approx -0.25$, projected transverse radius $r_{0}^{\perp}\approx 195$ Mpc/h with an extra deepening in the centre, and line-of-sight radius $r_{0}^{\parallel}\approx500$ Mpc/h, i.e. an ellipsoidal supervoid. The expected integrated Sachs-Wolfe imprint of such an elongated supervoid is at the $\Delta T_{\rm ISW} \approx -40 \mu K$ level, thus inappropriate to accounting for the Cold Spot pattern in the CMB.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures. Accepted by MNRAS in this for

Cold imprint of supervoids in the Cosmic Microwave Background re-considered with Planck and BOSS DR10

We analyze publicly available void catalogs of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 10 at redshifts $0.4<z<0.7$. The first goal of this paper is to extend the Cosmic Microwave Background stacking analysis of previous spectroscopic void samples at $z<0.4$. In addition, the DR10 void catalog provides the first chance to spectroscopically probe the volume of the Granett et al. (2008) supervoid catalog that constitutes the only set of voids which has shown a significant detection of a cross-correlation signal between void locations and average CMB chill. We found that the positions of voids identified in the spectroscopic DR10 galaxy catalog typically do not coincide with the locations of the Granett et al. supervoids in the overlapping volume, in spite of the presence of large underdense regions of high void-density in DR10. This failure to locate the same structures with spectroscopic redshifts may arise due to systematic differences in the properties of voids detected in photometric and spectroscopic samples. In the stacking measurement, we first find a $\Delta T = - 11.5 \pm 3.7~\mu K$ imprint for 35 of the 50 Granett et al. supervoids available in the DR10 volume. For the DR10 void catalog, lacking a prior on the number of voids to be considered in the stacking analysis, we find that the correlation measurement is fully consistent with no correlation. However, the measurement peaks with amplitude $\Delta T = - 9.8 \pm 4.8~\mu K$ for the a posteriori-selected 44 largest voids of size $R>65~Mpc/h$ that does match in terms of amplitude and number of structures the Granett et al. observation, although at different void positions.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

CEC5: On The Estimated Size of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in CEC5 Countries

In this paper we try to give a summary on the importance of the productivity based real appreciation e.g. the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect in five Central and Eastern European (CEC5) countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. We develop our approach from two directions. Firstly, we try to apply a common simple analytical framework for producing some stylised facts, and obtaining a “guesstimate” of relative price movements due to different sectoral productivity growth rates. Secondly, we try to summarise the econometric evidence available for the countries, both from individual country and panel estimates. It seems clear from the analyses, that both approaches gives a size of the BS effect not exceeding 2% per annum on CPI inflation vis-à-vis Germany. The numbers obtained are somewhat different, that one would conclude from the change in relative prices in the countries considered. This result might be explained by the fact, that the BS hypotheses did not hold exactly in the past, other factors like change in the sectoral wage rates, pricing behaviour and indermediate product prices also contributed to the behaviour of the nontradable and tradable price ratio. As these estimates are based on past data, when productivity differentials were higher than current figures, it is very likely, that as the catch-up goes by, the possible magnitude of the effect will be even smaller. From this one might conclude that real convergence should not necessary danger the fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty Criteria on inflation.

How Far has Trade Integration Advanced? An analysis of actual and potential trade of three Central and Eastern European countries

This paper investigates the trade integration of three Central and Eastern European countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, using the gravity model for trade as an analytical device. Beside the usual variables in such a model, we have also incorporated the FDI variables. According to our results, in the context of the most important Western European relations, it is Hungary that achieved the highest level of integration. Czech exports have also integrated, but there is still a very considerable potential there. Poland has integrated in exports to a much smaller extent than in imports. CEFTA-oriented trade has also gone up considerably, although the level of actual trade has not yet reached its full potential, except in the Czech Republic. Vis-a-vis South-East Asia, we have found overintegration for imports, but could see no signs of convergence for export towards this region. Our estimates support the trade-enhancing role of bilateral FDI. Paradoxically, the potential trade of the three countries estimated with FDI variables appears to be less than that suggested by the basic setup of the gravity model. We formulated two hypotheses to explain this, and supported one by a probit model. Finally, we tested for convergence and found that actual data indeed converged toward the estimated trade potential.

A kárpátaljai magyarság keresztnévadásának jellemzői az ezredfordulón

A keresztnevek modern szempontokat érvényesítő vizsgálata kisebbségi környezetben az egynyelvű környezettől eltérő jelenségekre hívhatja fel a figyelmet. Az anyaországtól elszakadt területek magyarságának a névadáskor különös körültekintéssel kell eljárnia. Döntenie kell a nemzeti hagyományt folytató, a múltat, magyarságot letagadó, a kompromisszumos megoldást alkalmazó (mindkét nyelven azonos hangzású, lefordíthatatlan), esetleg a divat hullámait követő lehetőségek között. E négy, leggyakrabban érvényesülő névválasztási mód tudatos alkalmazása viszont nem minden esetben mutatható ki. A szülők nagy bátorsággal választanak úgy a fiúknak, mint a lányoknak az adott közösségben ismeretlen nevet, aminek kö- vetkeztében egyre inkább háttérbe szorul a hagyomány, a nemzeti múlt. Társadalmi szempontból leginkább a műveltebb réteg az, aki újra feleleveníti a már néha feledésbe merülő magyaros neveket. Összefoglalva a férfinevek jellemző konzervatizmusa enyhül, a női nevek hagyománya tovább bomlik e vidék magyarságának körében