Coastal Ocean Forecasting: system integration and evaluation

Kourafalou, V.H. et al.ecent advances in Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) are discussed. Emphasis is given to the integration of the observational and modeling components, each developed in the context of monitoring and forecasting in the coastal seas. These integrated systems must be linked to larger scale systems toward seamless data sets, nowcasts and forecasts (from the global ocean, through the continental shelf and to the nearshore regions). Emerging capabilities include: methods to optimize coastal/regional observational networks; and probabilistic approaches to address both science and applications related to COFS. International collaboration is essential to exchange best practices, achieve common frameworks and establish standards.V. Kourafalou acknowledges support from NOAA (NA13OAR4830224 and NA11NOS4780045). M. Herzfeld is thankful to the eReefs marine modeling team and partners (CSIRO: Commonwealth Industrial and Scientific Research Organization; SIEF: Science and Industry Endowment Fund; AIMS: Australian Institute of Marine Science). The system CGOFS_ECS (material contributed by X. Zhu) is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (contract #41222038). E. V. Stanev acknowledges the input from COSYNA, which is supported by the Helmholtz Association of German Research CentersPeer Reviewe

Progress in operational modeling in support of oil spill response

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies

Impact of the river nutrient load variability on the North Aegean ecosystem functioning over the last decades

The impact of river load variability on the North Aegean ecosystem functioning over the last decades (1980–2000) was investigated by means of a coupled hydrodynamic/biogeochemical model simulation. Model results were validated against available SeaWiFS Chl-a and in situ data. The simulated food web was found dominated by small cells, in agreement with observations, with most of the carbon channelled through the microbial loop. Diatoms and dinoflagellates presented a higher relative abundance in the more productive coastal areas. The increased phosphate river loads in the early 80s resulted in nitrogen and silicate deficiency in coastal, river-influenced regions. Primary production presented a decreasing trend for most areas. During periods of increased phosphate/nitrate inputs, silicate deficiency resulted in a relative decrease of diatoms, triggering an increase of dinoflagellates. Such an increase was simulated in the late 90s in the Thermaikos Gulf, in agreement with the observed increased occurrence of Harmful Algal Blooms. Microzooplankton was found to closely follow the relative increase of dinoflagellates under higher nutrient availability, showing a faster response than mesozooplankton. Sensitivity simulations with varying nutrient river inputs revealed a linear response of net primary production and plankton biomass. A stronger effect of river inputs was simulated in the enclosed Thermaikos Gulf, in terms of productivity and plankton composition, showing a significant increase of dinoflagellates relative abundance under increased nutrient loads. •Long-term (1980–2000) biophysical simulation with varying riverine nutrient load•Overall productivity decreasing trend following phosphate riverine loads decrease•Plankton food web dominated by small cells/microbial loop•Dinoflagellates favoured during periods with increased river nutrient inputs•Stronger effect of river inputs in the enclosed Thermaikos gul

Physical connectivity between Pulley Ridge and Dry Tortugas coral reefs under the influence of the Loop Current/Florida Current system

The Pulley Ridge and Dry Tortugas coral reefs are among the most pristine, but also fragile, marine ecosystems of the continental United States. Understanding connectivity processes between them and with surrounding shelf and deep areas is fundamental for their management. This study focuses on the physical processes related to the connectivity of these reefs. Unprecedented in situ time series were used at these specific reef locations, together with satellite observations and numerical simulations, to investigate the dynamics controlling local circulation on the Southwestern Florida Shelf (SWFS) under oceanic influence. The approach of the Loop Current and Florida Current (LC/FC) system to the SWFS slope can induce 0.5 to 1 m/s offshore flows impacting the Pulley Ridge and Dry Tortugas reefs. On the other hand, when the LC/FC system retreats from the slope, onshore flows can carry open-sea waters over the coral reefs. Local formation of cyclonic eddies is possible near the Dry Tortugas reefs in the LC approach case and passage of upstream LC Frontal Eddies is possible in the LC retreat case. Offshore currents ∼1 m/s over the SWFS slope were also found during periods of anticyclonic LC Eddy separation. A novel finding is the shedding and northward propagation of mesoscale anticyclonic eddies from the core of the LC along the West Florida Shelf. Eddy shedding may have a broader effect on the dynamics of the shelf around the study reef areas. Long periods of LC/FC domination over these coral reefs (reaching several weeks to months) are characterized by strong (∼1 m/s) along-shelf currents and continuous upwelling processes, which may weaken the slope stratification and bring colder, deeper waters over the shelf-break and toward the shallower shelf region

Inter-annual productivity variability in the North Aegean Sea: Influence of thermohaline circulation during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient

The North Aegean inter-annual productivity variability was investigated, by means of a coupled hydrodynamic/biogeochemical model simulation, over a multi-year (1985–2001) period covering the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT). The EMT was a historically significant period (1987–1994), characterized by the massive formation of dense waters in the Aegean and their subsequent southward spreading to the Eastern Mediterranean. Our findings suggest that during the dense water formation events, deep nutrient rich water is exported to the South, affecting the N. Aegean nutrient pool. We show that the open sea productivity variability, driven by the deep nutrient pool entrainment to the euphotic zone, is related to both vertical mixing and nutrient fluxes, induced by thermohaline circulation variability. A negative correlation appears between the two processes, as stronger vertical mixing triggers a higher nutrient export. Process oriented experiments adopting maximum and minimum nutrient fluxes to the Southern Aegean revealed a significant impact on the nutrient pool, counterbalancing the effect of different vertical mixing on primary production. The model results presented good correlation with available satellite SST and Chl-a data. The impact of precipitation and BSW inflow variability on the Aegean salinity and dense water formation was investigated, showing a significant contribution by both preconditioning factors. ►Long-term (1985–2001) simulation of N. Aegean productivity with a biophysical model. ►Nutrient export during dense water formation events of the significant EMT period. ►Productivity variability correlated to both nutrient export and vertical mixing. ►Good correlation with available long term satellite SST and Chl-a data. ►Contribution of Salinity increase to the N. Aegean dense water formation events

On the modeling of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill

► Two oil particle trajectory forecasting systems for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico are presented. ► A Monte Carlo method was used to model oil removal processes. ► Results were sensitive to initial conditions. ► Data-assimilative models produced the most accurate trajectories. ► About 25% of the oil remains in the water column and most of the oil is below 800 m after three months of simulation.Two oil particle trajectory forecasting systems were developed and applied to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Both systems use ocean current fields from high-resolution numerical ocean circulation model simulations, Lagrangian stochastic models to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability to advect oil particles, and Monte Carlo-based schemes for representing uncertain biochemical and physical processes. The first system assumes two-dimensional particle motion at the ocean surface, the oil is in one state, and the particle removal is modeled as a Monte Carlo process parameterized by a one number removal rate. Oil particles are seeded using both initial conditions based on observations and particles released at the location of the Maconda well. The initial conditions (ICs) of oil particle location for the two-dimensional surface oil trajectory forecasts are based on a fusing of all available information including satellite-based analyses. The resulting oil map is digitized into a shape file within which a polygon filling software generates longitude and latitude with variable particle density depending on the amount of oil present in the observations for the IC. The more complex system assumes three (light, medium, heavy) states for the oil, each state has a different removal rate in the Monte Carlo process, three-dimensional particle motion, and a particle size-dependent oil mixing model.Simulations from the two-dimensional forecast system produced results that qualitatively agreed with the uncertain “truth” fields. These simulations validated the use of our Monte Carlo scheme for representing oil removal by evaporation and other weathering processes. Eulerian velocity fields for predicting particle motion from data-assimilative models produced better particle trajectory distributions than a free running model with no data assimilation. Monte Carlo simulations of the three-dimensional oil particle trajectory, whose ensembles were generated by perturbing the size of the oil particles and the fraction in a given size range that are released at depth, the two largest unknowns in this problem. 36 realizations of the model were run with only subsurface oil releases. An average of these results yields that after three months, about 25% of the oil remains in the water column and that most of the oil is below 800m

Shelf - open sea exchanges in the Adriatic Sea

Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Biblioteca Centrale - P.le Aldo Moro, 7, Rome / CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle RichercheSIGLEITItal