A rainfall model for drought risk analysis in south-east UK

Drought risk assessment ideally requires long-term rainfall records especially where inter-annual droughts are of potential concern, and spatially consistent estimates of rainfall to support regional and inter-regional scale assessments. This paper addresses these challenges by developing a spatially consistent stochastic model of monthly rainfall for south-east UK. Conditioned on 50 gauged sites, the model infills the historic record from 1855-2011 in both space and time, and extends the record by synthesising droughts which are consistent with the observed rainfall statistics. The long record length allows more insight into the variability of rainfall and potentially a stronger basis for risk assessment than is generally possible. It is shown that, although localised biases exist in both space and time, the model results are generally consistent with the observed record including for a range of inter-annual droughts and spatial statistics. Simulations show that some of the most severe inter-annual droughts on the record may recur, despite a trend towards generally wetter winters

The role and scope of practice of midwives in humanitarian settings:a systematic review and content analysis

Abstract Background Midwives have an essential role to play in preparing for and providing sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services in humanitarian settings due to their unique knowledge and skills, position as frontline providers and geographic and social proximity to the communities they serve. There are considerable gaps in the international guidance that defines the scope of practice of midwives in crises, particularly for the mitigation and preparedness, and recovery phases. We undertook a systematic review to provide further clarification of this scope of practice and insights to optimise midwifery performance. The review aimed to determine what SRH services midwives are involved in delivering across the emergency management cycle in humanitarian contexts, and how they are working with other professionals to deliver health care. Methods Four electronic databases and the websites of 33 organisations were searched between January and March 2017. Papers were eligible for inclusion if they were published in English between 2007 and 2017 and reported primary research pertaining to the role of midwives in delivering and performing any component of sexual and/or reproductive health in humanitarian settings. Content analysis was used to map the study findings to the Minimum Initial Service Package (MISP) for SRH across the three phases of the disaster management cycle and identify how midwives work with other members of the health care team. Results Fourteen studies from ten countries were included. Twelve studies were undertaken in conflict settings, and two were conducted in the context of the aftermath of natural disasters. We found a paucity of evidence from the research literature that examines the activities and roles undertaken by midwives across the disaster management cycle. This lack of evidence was more apparent during the mitigation and preparedness, and recovery phases than the response phase of the disaster management cycle. Conclusion Research-informed guidelines and strategies are required to better align the scope of practice of midwives with the objectives of multi-agency guidelines and agreements, as well as the activities of the MISP, to ensure that the potential of midwives can be acknowledged and optimised across the disaster management cycle

Application of a model to the evaluation of flood damage

This paper presents the initial results of a common methodology for the evaluation of damage produced by a flood. A model has been developed for flood damage estimation based on a geographic information system (GIS). It could be used by land administration bodies and insurance companies to manage flood-related damage data. The model simulates flood scenarios and evaluates expected economic losses from the impact of floodwaters on exposed elements, through the application of a computational model elaborated by GIS. During the development of the model, the Boesio Stream, a small watercourse flowing into Lake Maggiore (Lombardy, northern Italy) which was recently affected by a flash flood, was used as case study to test and calibrate the methodology. The method could be used either as a forecasting tool to define event scenarios, utilizing data from events simulated with a hydraulic model, or for real-time damage assessment after a disaster. The approach is suitable to large-area damage assessment and could be appropriate for land use planning, civil protection and risk mitigation. © Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2008

Modelling Climate Changes with Stationary Models: Is It Possible or Is It a Paradox?

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