Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach.

Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by 1.13kg/person/year. When the vaccination coverage is increased to the prescribed threshold for PPR eradication (i.e., 70$72.23 annually and the per capita consumption will increase by 1.23kg/person/year compared to the baseline (without vaccination). This study's findings offer an empirical justification for a sustainable approach to PPR eradication. The information on the socioeconomic benefits of vaccination can be promoted via sensitization campaigns to stimulate farmers' uptake of the practice. This study can inform investment in PPR control

To what extent do household expenditure and prices affect the demand for rice in northern Ghana?

Rice (Oryza sativa, L.) is considered staple food for nearly one half of the world’s population. The consumption of rice is becoming staple in many locations like in West Africa and specially in Ghana where the majority of the urban consumers value its convenience and taste. Despite its nutritional content, convenient attribute and increasing demand, the consumption of rice in the West Africa, particularly in northern Ghana, is still very little studied. Little is known about the demand for rice in the northern Ghana though this region includes over 30 % of the whole Ghanaian population. Specifically, knowing how on average household responds to a change in price or and expenditure considering their demand for rice are still missed in the current literature. This study seeks to address this knowledge gap by estimating expenditure and prices elasticities of demand for rice in the northern Ghana region. A QUAIDS model were estimated using consumer data collected from approximately 4,600 randomly selected households. A descriptive analysis of the study data indicates that more than 50 % of the respondents did consume rice. Moreover, households allocated the most part of their foods budget share to the consumption of cereals, and also to animal protein like meat and fish instead of to vegetable protein like legumes. The QUAIDS analysis indicates that all food categories like cereals including rice, roots/tubers, animal protein (meats, fish) have a positive expenditure elasticity across all income groups which strengthen the assumption that they are all normal goods. Same findings were obtained at both compensated and uncompensated prices elasticities. All the food categories had a negative compensated and uncompensated own price elasticity except the group of legumes which has a positive compensated own price elasticity. Though, all foods categories have a negative own price elasticity, the consumption of legumes has a positive own price elasticity. Several reasons were indicated to explain this surprising result among which the procedure used in generating the prices, and the main focus of the survey which was not on legumes consumption. Further research should redo this analysis by contrasting the locally produced rice to the imported rice to better understand the role that rice consumption plays in household’s food consumption