Cross-comparative analysis of evacuation behavior after earthquakes using mobile phone data

Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of empirical evidence on the evacuation movement of individuals across multiple disaster instances. Here we investigate the GPS trajectories of a total of more than 1 million anonymized mobile phone users whose positions are tracked for a period of 2 months before and after four of the major earthquakes that occurred in Japan. Through a cross comparative analysis between the four disaster instances, we find that in contrast with the assumed complexity of evacuation decision making mechanisms in crisis situations, the individuals' evacuation probability is strongly dependent on the seismic intensity that they experience. In fact, we show that the evacuation probabilities in all earthquakes collapse into a similar pattern, with a critical threshold at around seismic intensity 5.5. This indicates that despite the diversity in the earthquakes profiles and urban characteristics, evacuation behavior is similarly dependent on seismic intensity. Moreover, we found that probability density functions of the distances that individuals evacuate are not dependent on seismic intensities that individuals experience. These insights from empirical analysis on evacuation from multiple earthquake instances using large scale mobility data contributes to a deeper understanding of how people react to earthquakes, and can potentially assist decision makers to simulate and predict the number of evacuees in urban areas with little computational time and cost, by using population density information and seismic intensity which can be observed instantaneously after the shock

GEO-BLEU: Similarity Measure for Geospatial Sequences

In recent geospatial research, the importance of modeling large-scale human mobility data and predicting trajectories is rising, in parallel with progress in text generation using large-scale corpora in natural language processing. Whereas there are already plenty of feasible approaches applicable to geospatial sequence modeling itself, there seems to be room to improve with regard to evaluation, specifically about measuring the similarity between generated and reference trajectories. In this work, we propose a novel similarity measure, GEO-BLEU, which can be especially useful in the context of geospatial sequence modeling and generation. As the name suggests, this work is based on BLEU, one of the most popular measures used in machine translation research, while introducing spatial proximity to the idea of n-gram. We compare this measure with an established baseline, dynamic time warping, applying it to actual generated geospatial sequences. Using crowdsourced annotated data on the similarity between geospatial sequences collected from over 12,000 cases, we quantitatively and qualitatively show the proposed method's superiority

Predicting Evacuation Decisions using Representations of Individuals' Pre-Disaster Web Search Behavior

Predicting the evacuation decisions of individuals before the disaster strikes is crucial for planning first response strategies. In addition to the studies on post-disaster analysis of evacuation behavior, there are various works that attempt to predict the evacuation decisions beforehand. Most of these predictive methods, however, require real time location data for calibration, which are becoming much harder to obtain due to the rising privacy concerns. Meanwhile, web search queries of anonymous users have been collected by web companies. Although such data raise less privacy concerns, they have been under-utilized for various applications. In this study, we investigate whether web search data observed prior to the disaster can be used to predict the evacuation decisions. More specifically, we utilize a "session-based query encoder" that learns the representations of each user's web search behavior prior to evacuation. Our proposed approach is empirically tested using web search data collected from users affected by a major flood in Japan. Results are validated using location data collected from mobile phones of the same set of users as ground truth. We show that evacuation decisions can be accurately predicted (84%) using only the users' pre-disaster web search data as input. This study proposes an alternative method for evacuation prediction that does not require highly sensitive location data, which can assist local governments to prepare effective first response strategies.Comment: Accepted in ACM KDD 201

City2City: Translating Place Representations across Cities

Large mobility datasets collected from various sources have allowed us to observe, analyze, predict and solve a wide range of important urban challenges. In particular, studies have generated place representations (or embeddings) from mobility patterns in a similar manner to word embeddings to better understand the functionality of different places within a city. However, studies have been limited to generating such representations of cities in an individual manner and has lacked an inter-city perspective, which has made it difficult to transfer the insights gained from the place representations across different cities. In this study, we attempt to bridge this research gap by treating \textit{cities} and \textit{languages} analogously. We apply methods developed for unsupervised machine language translation tasks to translate place representations across different cities. Real world mobility data collected from mobile phone users in 2 cities in Japan are used to test our place representation translation methods. Translated place representations are validated using landuse data, and results show that our methods were able to accurately translate place representations from one city to another.Comment: A short 4-page version of this work was accepted in ACM SIGSPATIAL Conference 2019. This is the full version with details. In Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems. AC

Evaluation of VI index forecasting model by machine learning for Yahoo! stock BBS using volatility trading simulation

The risk avoidance is very crucial in investment and asset management. One commonly used index as a risk index is the VI index. Suwa et al. (2017) analyzed stock bulletin board messages and predicted it rise. In our study, we developed a simulation of trading Nikkei stock index options using intra-day data and verified the validity of the VI index prediction model proposed by Suwa et al. In a period from November 18, 2014, to June 29, 2016, we conducted a simulation using a long straddle strategy. The profit and loss from trading with the instructions of their model was +3,021 yen. The benchmark\u27s profit and loss was -3,590 yen. The improvement with their model was +6,611 yen. Therefore, we confirmed that Suwa et al.\u27s VI index prediction model might be effective

Metropolitan Scale and Longitudinal Dataset of Anonymized Human Mobility Trajectories

Modeling and predicting human mobility trajectories in urban areas is an essential task for various applications. The recent availability of large-scale human movement data collected from mobile devices have enabled the development of complex human mobility prediction models. However, human mobility prediction methods are often trained and tested on different datasets, due to the lack of open-source large-scale human mobility datasets amid privacy concerns, posing a challenge towards conducting fair performance comparisons between methods. To this end, we created an open-source, anonymized, metropolitan scale, and longitudinal (90 days) dataset of 100,000 individuals' human mobility trajectories, using mobile phone location data. The location pings are spatially and temporally discretized, and the metropolitan area is undisclosed to protect users' privacy. The 90-day period is composed of 75 days of business-as-usual and 15 days during an emergency. To promote the use of the dataset, we will host a human mobility prediction data challenge (`HuMob Challenge 2023') using the human mobility dataset, which will be held in conjunction with ACM SIGSPATIAL 2023.Comment: Data descriptor for the Human Mobility Prediction Challenge (HuMob Challenge) 202