WP 98 - The graying of the median voter

Analyzing 30 OECD-countries in 1980-2005, this paper documents the association of an aging electorate with retirement spending. The fi rst result is that an increase in the age of the median voter of one year is associated with an increase of 0.25 percentage points in retirement spending relative to GDP. The second result is that aging does not lead to higher benefi ts per retiree. Both results also hold for health care costs, which are frequently assumed to be positively associated with aging as well. Together, the results contradict the main prediction of median voter models that imply that an older median voter successfully pushes for higher individual benefi ts. If anything, a graying median voter is associated with less generous pensions. These results are reinforced when health care costs are considered with a time trend proxying for technological change. Absent a time trend, health care costs –both relative to GDP and per inhabitant– are positively infl uenced by the age of the median voter. JEL classifi cation: C23; H55; J18 Key words: aging; retirement; political economy *Nederlandse samenvatting (Dutch summary)* Deze studie onderzoekt de relatie tussen vergrijzing en pensioenuitgaven in 30 OECD-landen voor de periode 1980 en 2005. Ten eerste blijkt dat een toename van de leeftijd van de mediane kiezer met een jaar gerelateerd is aan een 0.25 procentpunt hogere pensioenuitgaven als deel van het BNP. Ten tweede laat de studie zien dat vergrijzing niet samengaat met hogere pensioenuitkeringen per gepensioneerde. Beide resultaten gaan ook op voor kosten voor de gezondheidszorg, waarvan ook vaak wordt verondersteld dat zij samengaan met vergrijzing. Samengenomen betekent dit dat geen steun wordt gevonden voor de voorspelling dat oudere kiezers in staat zijn pensioenuitgaven te verhogen, zoals verondersteld wordt in mediane kiezer modellen. In plaats daarvan gaat de vergrijzende kiezer samen met mindere genereuze pensioenen. Het toevoegen van een tijdtrend als controle voor de invloed van technologische verandering op gezondheidskosten is cruciaal: zonder deze trend zijn gezondheidszorguitgaven –zowel als deel van het BNP als per inwoner– wel positief gerelateerd aan de leeftijd van de mediane kiezer.

Innovative HRM. A Review of the Literature

This research note summarizes the findings of a literature review of innovative HRM. Based on an analysis of 47 articles, three main approaches to innovative HRM are identified. First, innovative HRM can refer to innovation of HRM. Other studies focus on how HRM responds to innovations. And, thirdly, the term innovative HRM is found in the literature focusing on organizational innovativeness. These three approaches, along with theoretical explanations, are discussed. The note closes with implications for research and practice

Age Stereotypes and Attitudes Towards Welfare State Arrangements for the Old: A Multilevel Analysis Across Twenty-Nine Countries

This study investigates whether and how support for welfare state arrangements for the old relate to the stereotypes of the young and the old within society. It is hypothesized that the social status that these groups have in society affect these attitudes through different mechanisms, relating to the deservingness criteria that citizens apply. An empirical analysis of Round 4 of the European Social Survey (including 50,009 individuals from 29 European countries) shows that: (1) the social esteem of people over 70 predicts support for welfare state arrangements for the old; and (2) the social esteem of people in their 20s has a moderate effect on support for these arrangements. Hence, there is little support for a generational conflict

Social income transfers and poverty alleviation in OECD countries

Poverty alleviation is an important policy objective in developed welfare states. This paper analyzes the effect of social transfer policies on poverty. A vast literature claims that high social effort goes along with low poverty levels across countries. This paper systematically analyzes this claim. We employ several social expenditure ratios (as a proxy for social effort) and correct for the impact of the tax system and for private social arrangements, using OECD methodology. Also, we control for demographic and macro-economic differences across countries. We performed several tests with the most recent data (LIS, OECD, and SOCX) for the period 1985-2005. Our results are less clear-cut than earlier findings. We still find quite a strong negative relationship between the level of public social expenditure and poverty among 28 OECD countries. However, for non-EU15 countries this relationship is stronger than for the EU15. The results alter considerably if private social expenditures are included as well. For non-EU15 countries in our sample, we do not find evidence for a negative correlation between the level of total social spending and the incidence of poverty. In contrast, for the group of EU15 countries private social arrangements do matter as far as poverty alleviation is concerned. Demographic and macro-economic (control) variables are important as well. We developed and employed multiple linear regression models to control for these complex interrelationships. Our results point at one direction: gross social spending is the driving force as far as differences in poverty levels across countries are concerned, although the ageing of the population and unemployment rates have some explanatory power, both for non-EU15 countries and for EU15 countries. Our analyses captures another effect as well. It is essential to control for the impact of taxes on the social expenditure ratios used. By doing so, the linkage between social effort and poverty levels across countries becomes insignificant. In view of the fact that with these corrections on expenditure statistics, we have a much better – although still not perfect - measure of what governments really devote to social spending, the familiar claim that higher social expenditure goes along with lower poverty levels does not hold across the 28 examined countries examined. We believe that our comparison of the impact of several social expenditure ratios on poverty levels has emphasized that taking into account both the public/private-mix and the impact of the tax system on social expenditure ratios really matters for comparative welfare state research and for policy makers who want to reduce poverty.poverty, welfare states, social transfers

Organisational citizens or reciprocal relationships? An empirical comparison

Purpose:\ud This paper aims at contributing to the debate on organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB) by developing a theory‐driven measure of cooperative behaviour within organisations, called organisational solidarity (OS).\ud \ud Design/methodology/approach:\ud Data are gathered through a survey among 674 employees from nine organisations. Scales are constructed using the multiple group method. OLS regression is used to test the hypotheses.\ud \ud Findings:\ud The data analyses show that reciprocity is an important mechanism to bring about cooperation within organisations. Based on this, a distinction is made between horizontal and vertical OS.\ud \ud Research limitations/implications:\ud The major shortcoming of this research is that some of the results may be influenced by same source bias. The research implies that cooperative types of employee behaviour – such as OCB – depend on the behaviour of others. Furthermore, these kinds of behaviour can be divided into a horizontal and a vertical dimension.\ud \ud Practical implications:\ud The findings suggest that supervisors can play a facilitating role in creating and sustaining cooperative behaviour of employees.\ud \ud Originality/value:\ud This paper contributes to the literature on OCB by examining how this kind of behaviour is affected by the behaviour of supervisors and co‐workers. Secondly, whereas other articles focus on either horizontal or vertical dimensions of cooperative behaviour, this paper focuses on both dimensions simultaneously