Using health surveillance systems data to assess the impact of AIDS and antiretroviral treatment on adult morbidity and mortality in Botswana

Introduction: Botswana's AIDS response included free antiretroviral treatment (ART) since 2002, achieving 80% coverage of persons with CD450% and >30% through 2011, while continuing to increase in older women. Conclusions: Adult mortality in Botswana fell markedly as ART coverage increased. HIV prevalence declines may reflect ART-associated reductions in sexual transmission. Triangulation of surveillance system data offers a reasonable approach to evaluate impact of HIV/AIDS interventions, complementing cohort approaches that monitor individual-level health outcomes

Syphilis prevalence trends in adult women in 132 countries - estimations using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections model.

We estimated national-level trends in the prevalence of probable active syphilis in adult women using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) model to inform program planning, target-setting, and progress evaluation in STI control. The model fitted smoothed-splines polynomial regressions to data from antenatal clinic surveys and screening and representative household surveys, adjusted for diagnostic test performance and weighted by national coverage. Eligible countries had ≥1 data point from 2010 or later and ≥3 from 2000 or later from adult populations considered representative of the general female population (pregnant women or community-based studies). Between 2012 and 2016, the prevalence of probable active syphilis in women decreased in 54 (41%) of 132 eligible countries; this decrease was substantive (≥10% proportionally, ≥0.10% percentage-point absolute difference and non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals in 2012 and 2016) in 5 countries. Restricting eligible data to prevalence measurements of dual treponemal and non-treponemal testing limited estimates to 85 countries; of these, 45 countries (53%) showed a decrease. These standardized trend estimates highlight the need for increased investment in national syphilis surveillance and control efforts if the World Health Organization target of a 90% reduction in the incidence of syphilis between 2018 and 2030 is to be met

Long-Term Costs and Health Impact of Continued Global Fund Support for Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020. Methods and Findings: Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to$1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5$150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or$200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020. Conclusions: Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens

Uganda’s HIV Prevention Success: The Role of Sexual Behavior Change and the National Response. Commentary on Green et al. (2006)

The paper by Green et al. (vol. 10, this issue

Addressing the migration of health professionals: the role of working conditions and educational placements

This article provides a brief overview of the global health-worker shortage, which could undermine the Millennium Development Goal to halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS. The current situation suggests that long-term solutions to shortages can only be found by addressing the problem from a global perspective; that is, to eliminate shortages through substantial investments in training and retaining health workers in developed and developing countries, and not through policies that do not work towards solving this underlying problem, such as ones that restrict migration

Mosquito nets in a rural area of Western Kenya: ownership, use and quality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are regarded as one of the most effective strategies to prevent malaria in Africa. This study analyses the use and quality of nets owned by households in an area of high net coverage.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A structured questionnaire on ownership and use of nets was administered to the households of individuals sampled from a local health centre in south Kisii district, Kenya. A physical inspection of all the nets in the households was done and their conditions recorded on spot check forms designed for that purpose.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 670 households surveyed, 95% owned at least one net. Only 59% of household residents slept under a net during the night prior to the survey. 77% of those who slept under a net used an insecticide-treated net (ITN) or long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLIN). Out of 1,627 nets in the survey households, 40% were deemed to be of poor quality because of holes. Compared to other age groups, children aged 5-14 years were most likely to have slept under nets of poor quality (odds ratio 1.41; <it>p </it>= 0.007).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although net ownership was high following increased delivery of ITNs, continuous promotion of effective maintenance and routine use is needed and efforts to replace damaged nets must be implemented.</p

Fitting the HIV Epidemic in Zambia: A Two-Sex Micro-Simulation Model

BACKGROUND: In describing and understanding how the HIV epidemic spreads in African countries, previous studies have not taken into account the detailed periods at risk. This study is based on a micro-simulation model (individual-based) of the spread of the HIV epidemic in the population of Zambia, where women tend to marry early and where divorces are not frequent. The main target of the model was to fit the HIV seroprevalence profiles by age and sex observed at the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2001. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A two-sex micro-simulation model of HIV transmission was developed. Particular attention was paid to precise age-specific estimates of exposure to risk through the modelling of the formation and dissolution of relationships: marriage (stable union), casual partnership, and commercial sex. HIV transmission was exclusively heterosexual for adults or vertical (mother-to-child) for children. Three stages of HIV infection were taken into account. All parameters were derived from empirical population-based data. Results show that basic parameters could not explain the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia. In order to fit the age and sex patterns, several assumptions were made: differential susceptibility of young women to HIV infection, differential susceptibility or larger number of encounters for male clients of commercial sex workers, and higher transmission rate. The model allowed to quantify the role of each type of relationship in HIV transmission, the proportion of infections occurring at each stage of disease progression, and the net reproduction rate of the epidemic (R(0) = 1.95). CONCLUSIONS: The simulation model reproduced the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia, and fitted the age and sex pattern of HIV seroprevalence in 2001. The same model could be used to measure the effect of changing behaviour in the future

Malaria control under the Taliban regime: insecticide-treated net purchasing, coverage, and usage among men and women in eastern Afghanistan

BACKGROUND: Scaling up insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) coverage is a key malaria control strategy even in conflict-affected countries 12. Socio-economic factors influence access to ITNs whether subsidized or provided free to users. This study examines reported ITN purchasing, coverage, and usage in eastern Afghanistan and explores women's access to health information during the Taliban regime (1996-2001). This strengthens the knowledge base on household-level health choices in complex-emergency settings. METHODS: Fifteen focus group discussions (FGDs) and thirty in-depth interviews were conducted with men and women from ITN-owning and non-owning households. FGDs included rank ordering, pile sorting and focused discussion of malaria knowledge and ITN purchasing. Interviews explored general health issues, prevention and treatment practices, and women's malaria knowledge and concerns. Seven key informant interviews with health-related workers and a concurrent survey of 200 ITN-owning and 214 non-owning households were used to clarify or quantify findings. RESULTS: Malaria knowledge was similar among men and women and ITN owners and non-owners. Women reported obtaining health information through a variety of sources including clinic staff, their husbands who had easier access to information, and particularly female peers. Most participants considered ITNs very desirable, though not usually household necessities. ITN owners reported more household assets than non-owners. Male ITN owners and non-owners ranked rugs and ITNs as most desired, while women ranked personal assets such as jewellery highest. While men were primarily responsible for household decision-making and purchasing, older women exerted considerable influence. Widow-led and landless households reported most difficulties purchasing ITNs. Most participants wanted to buy ITNs only if they could cover all household members. When not possible, preferential usage was given to women and children. CONCLUSIONS: Despite restricted access to health facilities and formal education, Afghan women were surprisingly knowledgeable about the causes of malaria and the value of ITNs in prevention. Inequities in ITN usage were noted between rather than within households, with some unable to afford even one ITN and others not wanting ITNs unless all household members could be protected. Malaria knowledge thus appears a lesser barrier to ITN purchasing and coverage in eastern Afghanistan than are pricing and distribution strategies