Cutting one’s coat according to one’s cloth:How did the Great Recession affect retirement resources and expenditure goals?

Hervorming Sociale Regelgevin

Pension ambitions before and after the crisis

Dit onderzoek vergelijkt pensioenambities voor de crisis (januari 2008) met pensioenambities in december 2014. Hiervoor gebruiken we een vragenlijst die is uitgezet in januari 2008 en december 2014, gekoppeld aan administratieve gegevens over (pensioen)vermogens. De resultaten laten zien dat het doorsnee pensioeninkomen met zo’n 17% is gedaald tussen 2008 en 2014. De doorsnee minimale pensioenambitie is in deze periode ook gedaald, van 1.565 naar 1.371 euro per maand. Dankzij de bijgestelde ambities neemt het aandeel van mensen met een pensioeninkomen (pensioen en vrije besparingen) onder de pensioenambitie ‘slechts’ toe van 22% naar 26%. Als mensen hun ambities niet bijgesteld hadden, was dit aandeel opgelopen tot 41%. Waar huiseigenaren en zelfstandigen in 2008 relatief hoge bestedingsbehoeften rapporteerden, is dit in 2014 niet langer het geval. Ook het verschil tussen de pensioenambities van mensen met een hoog en laag inkomen is kleiner geworden. Uit de resultaten blijkt dat er veel heterogeniteit is in individuele behoeften en bezittingen ten aanzien van pensioen. Behoeften hangen af van vele factoren gedurende de levensloop en zijn flexibeler dan de 70%-maatstaf doet vermoeden. Om hier rekening mee te houden, zouden pensioendoelstellingen gedifferentieerd kunnen worden. Daarnaast benadrukken de onderzoekers het belang van laagdrempelige pensioencommunicatie om het pensioenbewustzijn te vergroten

Graded return-to-work as a stepping stone to full work resumption

While there is increasing evidence that graded return-to-work is an effective tool for the rehabilitation of sick-listed workers, little is known on the optimal timing and level of grading in return-to-work trajectories. We use administrative data from a Dutch private workplace reintegration provider to fill this gap. In order to correct for the selection bias inherent to the evaluation of activation strategies, we exploit the discretionary room of the case managers in setting up treatment plans. We find that graded return-to-work has the potential to speed up the recovery process, but does not necessarily help rehabilitate workers who would otherwise have not rehabilitated. Work resumption can be achieved faster when graded return-to-work is started earlier and may permanently increase when started at a higher rate of work resumption. These findings however do not hold for individuals who have problems related to mental health

Cutting one's coat according to one's cloth - How did the great recession affect retirement resources and expenditure goals?

This paper describes how individuals update their retirement plans in response to substantial shocks in pension wealth during the Great Recession. Using a unique combination of survey and administrative panel data from before and after the Great Recession in the Netherlands, we investigate the causal relation between wealth and retirement expenditure goals. We separate 'pure' wealth effects from macro factors such as general pessimism. The estimates show that a negative shock in annuitized pension wealth of 100 euros reduced retirement expenditure goals with 24-33 euros. The effects are relatively large for old and high-income individuals

Cutting one’s coat according to one’s cloth: How did the Great Recession affect retirement resources and expenditure goals?

Pension and housing wealth fell substantially during the Great Recession in many industrialized countries. This raised questions about the development of retirement savings adequacy. Using a unique combination of survey and administrative panel data from before and after the Great Recession in the Netherlands, we investigate co-movements between wealth and retirement expenditure goals. We separate ‘pure’ wealth effects from macro factors such as general pessimism. The estimates show that a shock in annuitized pension wealth of 100 euros reduced retirement expenditure goals with 23-33 euros. Whereas pensions drive the revision of goals for older indi- viduals, the results indicate that individuals between the ages of 25 and 49 are more sensitive to housing wealth. Furthermore, while other studies find that the reaction of current consumption to financial shocks is relatively strong for low-income households, we document that long term expenditure goals are adjusted more by high-income households. Simulations show that the fraction of individuals falling short with regard to their own retirement expenditure goal would almost have doubled during the Great Recession if individuals would not have adjusted their retirement expenditure goals downward

Linking synthetic populations to household geolocations: a demonstration in Namibia

Whether evaluating gridded population dataset estimates (e.g., WorldPop, LandScan) or household survey sample designs, a population census linked to residential locations are needed. Geolocated census microdata data, however, are almost never available and are thus best simulated. In this paper, we simulate a close-to-reality population of individuals nested in households geolocated to realistic building locations. Using the R simPop package and ArcGIS, multiple realizations of a geolocated synthetic population are derived from the Namibia 2011 census 20% microdata sample, Namibia census enumeration area boundaries, Namibia 2013 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and dozens of spatial covariates derived from publicly available datasets. Realistic household latitude-longitude coordinates are manually generated based on public satellite imagery. Simulated households are linked to latitude-longitude coordinates by identifying distinct household types with multivariate k-means analysis and modelling a probability surface for each household type using Random Forest machine learning methods. We simulate five realizations of a synthetic population in Namibia�s Oshikoto region, including demographic, socioeconomic, and outcome characteristics at the level of household, woman, and child. Comparison of variables in the synthetic population were made with 2011 census 20% sample and 2013 DHS data by primary sampling unit/enumeration area. We found that synthetic population variable distributions matched observed observations and followed expected spatial patterns. We outline a novel process to simulate a close-to-reality microdata census geolocated to realistic building locations in a low- or middle-income country setting to support spatial demographic research and survey methodological development while avoiding disclosure risk of individuals