A scan statistic for continuous data based on the normal probability model

Temporal, spatial and space-time scan statistics are commonly used to detect and evaluate the statistical significance of temporal and/or geographical disease clusters, without any prior assumptions on the location, time period or size of those clusters. Scan statistics are mostly used for count data, such as disease incidence or mortality. Sometimes there is an interest in looking for clusters with respect to a continuous variable, such as lead levels in children or low birth weight. For such continuous data, we present a scan statistic where the likelihood is calculated using the the normal probability model. It may also be used for other distributions, while still maintaining the correct alpha level. In an application of the new method, we look for geographical clusters of low birth weight in New York City

Monitoring the Impact of Influenza by Age: Emergency Department Fever and Respiratory Complaint Surveillance in New York City

Don Olson and colleagues report that influenza-related morbidity in NYC from 2001 to 2006 was highly age- and strain-specific and conclude that surveillance using electronic data can provide timely and representative information about the epidemiology of circulating influenza viruses

A Bayesian Evidence Synthesis Approach to Estimate Disease Prevalence in Hard-To-Reach Populations: Hepatitis C in New York City

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals

Ten-year cancer incidence in rescue/recovery workers and civilians exposed to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center

Background: Cancer incidence in exposed rescue/recovery workers (RRWs) and civilians (non-RRWs) was previously reported through 2008. Methods: We studied occurrence of first primary cancer among World Trade Center Health Registry enrollees through 2011 using adjusted standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and the WTC-exposure-cancer association, using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: All-cancer SIR was 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.20) in RRWs, and 1.08 (95% CI 1.02–1.15) in non-RRWs. Prostate cancer and skin melanoma were significantly elevated in both populations. Thyroid cancer was significantly elevated only in RRWs while breast cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were significantly elevated only in non-RRWs. There was a significant exposure dose-response for bladder cancer among RRWs, and for skin melanoma among non-RRWs. Conclusions: We observed excesses of total and specific cancers in both populations, although the strength of the evidence for causal relationships to WTC exposures is somewhat limited. Continued monitoring of this population is indicated

Monitoring Temporal Changes in the Specificity of an Oral HIV Test: A Novel Application for Use in Postmarketing Surveillance

BACKGROUND: Postmarketing surveillance is routinely conducted to monitor performance of pharmaceuticals and testing devices in the marketplace. However, these surveillance methods are often done retrospectively and, as a result, are not designed to detect issues with performance in real-time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using HIV antibody screening test data from New York City STD clinics, we developed a formal, statistical method of prospectively detecting temporal clusters of poor performance of a screening test. From 2005 to 2008, New York City, as well as other states, observed unexpectedly high false-positive (FP) rates in an oral fluid-based rapid test used for screening HIV. We attempted to formally assess whether the performance of this HIV screening test statistically deviated from both local expectation and the manufacturer's claim for the test. Results indicate that there were two significant temporal clusters in the FP rate of the oral HIV test, both of which exceeded the manufacturer's upper limit of the 95% CI for the product. Furthermore, the FP rate of the test varied significantly by both STD clinic and test lot, though not by test operator. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous monitoring of surveillance data has the benefit of providing information regarding test performance, and if conducted in real-time, it can enable programs to examine reasons for poor test performance in close proximity to the occurrence. Techniques used in this study could be a valuable addition for postmarketing surveillance of test performance and may become particularly important with the increase in rapid testing methods

Case Fatality Rates Based on Population Estimates of Influenza-Like Illness Due to Novel H1N1 Influenza: New York City, May–June 2009

BACKGROUND: The public health response to pandemic influenza is contingent on the pandemic strain's severity. In late April 2009, a potentially pandemic novel H1N1 influenza strain (nH1N1) was recognized. New York City (NYC) experienced an intensive initial outbreak that peaked in late May, providing the need and opportunity to rapidly quantify the severity of nH1N1. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Telephone surveys using rapid polling methods of approximately 1,000 households each were conducted May 20-27 and June 15-19, 2009. Respondents were asked about the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI, fever with either cough or sore throat) for each household member from May 1-27 (survey 1) or the preceding 30 days (survey 2). For the overlap period, prevalence data were combined by weighting the survey-specific contribution based on a Serfling model using data from the NYC syndromic surveillance system. Total and age-specific prevalence of ILI attributed to nH1N1 were estimated using two approaches to adjust for background ILI: discounting by ILI prevalence in less affected NYC boroughs and by ILI measured in syndromic surveillance data from 2004-2008. Deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions were determined from enhanced surveillance including nH1N1-specific testing. Combined ILI prevalence for the 50-day period was 15.8% (95% CI:13.2%-19.0%). The two methods of adjustment yielded point estimates of nH1N1-associated ILI of 7.8% and 12.2%. Overall case-fatality (CFR) estimates ranged from 0.054-0.086 per 1000 persons with nH1N1-associated ILI and were highest for persons>or=65 years (0.094-0.147 per 1000) and lowest for those 0-17 (0.008-0.012). Hospitalization rates ranged from 0.84-1.34 and ICU admission rates from 0.21-0.34 per 1000, with little variation in either by age-group. CONCLUSIONS: ILI prevalence can be quickly estimated using rapid telephone surveys, using syndromic surveillance data to determine expected "background" ILI proportion. Risk of severe illness due to nH1N1 was similar to seasonal influenza, enabling NYC to emphasize preventing severe morbidity rather than employing aggressive community mitigation measures

The Effects of Changes in Physical Fitness on Academic Performance Among New York City Youth

To evaluate whether a change in fitness is associated with academic outcomes in New York City (NYC) middle school students using longitudinal data, and to evaluate whether this relationship is modified by student household poverty