SimCrime: A Spatial Microsimulation Model for the Analysing of Crime in Leeds.

This Working Paper is a part of PhD thesis 'Modelling Crime: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach' which aims to investigate the potential of spatial microsimulation for modelling crime. This Working Paper presents SimCrime, a static spatial microsimulation model for crime in Leeds. It is designed to estimate the likelihood of being a victim of crime and crime rates at the small area level in Leeds and to answer what-if questions about the effects of changes in the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the future population. The model is based on individual microdata. Specifically, SimCrime combines individual microdata from the British Crime Survey (BCS) for which location data is only at the scale of large areas, with census statistics for smaller areas to create synthetic microdata estimates for output areas ?(OAs) in Leeds using a simulated annealing method. The new microdata dataset includes all the attributes from the original datasets. This allows variables such as crime victimisation from the BCS to be directly estimated for OAs

A Fuzzy AHP Approach to Assess Flood Hazard for Area of Bang Rakam Model 60 Project in Yom River Basin, Northern Thailand

The Thai government developed the “Bang Rakam Model 60” to solve flood issues in low-lying areas (Phitsanulok and Sukhothai Provinces). In the project, farmers will have to start planting in early April and harvest in July. This research proposes a methodology for assessing flood hazard using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP) relied on Chang’s extent analysis. It was employed to derive the weight for factor ranking and create a flood hazard map. Eight hazard factors are considered in the methodology: average annual rainfall, drainage density, distance from drainage network, soil water infiltration, land use, elevation, slope, and flow accumulation. The generated flood hazard maps were validated using the repeated flood area from Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA). Due to the difference of rated opinion on the drainage density factor, the eight experts were divided into two groups of four each. The results of both expert groups indicated that the most pivotal influencing factor to flood hazard is the average annual rainfall. From the first group, it is stated that the highest flood hazard areas are in Phrom Phiram, Mueang Phitsanulok, and Bang Rakam Districts. Whereas, the second group stated that very high flood hazards level occurring mostly in Phrom Phiram District. The flood hazard area was divided into five levels of very low, low, moderate, high, and very high which the first group found that they covered 75.59 km2, 184.44 km2, 211.94 km2, 165.78 km2, and 57.81 km2, respectively, while the second group found that they covered 38.93 km2, 100.22 km2, 175.58 km2, 218.90 km2, and 161.91 km2, respectively. The obtained flood hazard assessment provides crucial information for future flood preparation, response, prevention, mitigation, and recovery initiatives. Moreover, it will guide the government agencies in supplying water and save the compensation budget to victims’ flood-affected farms

A mechanistic study of hydrotropic solubilization: Riboflavin -nicotinamide in aqueous and non-aqueous systems

Solubilization of riboflavin by nicotinamide, a hydrotropic agent, in both aqueous and non-aqueous systems was investigated. The solubility of riboflavin in all solvent systems was increased by adding various concentrations of nicotinamide. The ability of nicotinamide to solubilize riboflavin in solution at a constant temperature was greatest in water and decreased in the following order: methanol \u3e ethanol \u3e n-propanol \u3e isopropanol. As the temperature was increased, the solubility of riboflavin in nicotinamide solution increased. Heat of solution of riboflavin in each solvent system accounted for the variation in the rate of increase of riboflavin solubility with temperature changes and thus a solvent effect was hypothesized for this behavior. Enthalpy of riboflavin solution was obtained from van\u27t Hoff plot. The relationship between the enthalpy of riboflavin solution and nicotinamide concentration was shown to be non-linear. To understand the molecular interaction between nicotinamide and various solvent systems the concept of enthalpy and entropy compensation was applied. Thermodynamic parameters of riboflavin solution were evaluated at the harmonic mean temperature. The relationship between the enthalpy and the entropy of a riboflavin solution was linear. It was found that there was a functional relationship between the free energy and the enthalpy of riboflavin solution supporting the conclusion that solvent compensation occurred. In an aqueous system of nicotinamide at concentrations lower than 0.01 molar, enthalpy and entropy transfer increased, suggesting that the strength of the hydrogen bond within the water structure was enhanced by the presence of nicotinamide and riboflavin solubility was entropy driven. At higher concentrations (\u3e0.01 M), the formation of a more ordered solvent structure was proposed in which riboflavin was enthalpy driven. A similar phenomenon was observed in nicotinamide-methanol solution. A mechanism identical to that of nicotinamide-water system was proposed for nicotinamide-methanol solution based on similarities in the structure of water and methanol. In ethanol, n-propanol and isopropanol, no initial increase in enthalpy and entropy was observed. The effect of inserting a nicotinamide molecule within the chain-like structure of these three aliphatic alcohols resulted in a more ordered structure and solubility was enthalpy driven. Nicotinamide acts as a cosolvent in enhancing the solubility of riboflavin

Modelling crime : a spatial microsimulation approach

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Comparison of three stool-processing methods for detection of Salmonella serogroups B, C2, and D by PCR.

Three different stool sample-processing methods (centrifugation, immunomagnetic separation, and selective enrichment cultivation) for the identification of Salmonella serogroups by PCR were studied. The corresponding sensitivities in an ethidium bromide stained-agarose gel were 10(5), 10(3), and 10 bacteria, respectively. The PCR assay with overnight enrichment performed as well as, or even better than, the conventional culture technique. Of 485 clinical stool samples, PCR correctly identified all 230 culture-positive samples as well as mixed Salmonella infections in four cases