Early Intervention for Children at High Risk of Developmental Disability in Low- and Middle-Income Countries:A Narrative Review

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), while neonatal mortality has fallen, the number of children under five with developmental disability remains unchanged. The first thousand days are a critical window for brain development, when interventions are particularly effective. Early Childhood Interventions (ECI) are supported by scientific, human rights, human capital and programmatic rationales. In high-income countries, it is recommended that ECI for high-risk infants start in the neonatal period, and specialised interventions for children with developmental disabilities as early as three months of age; more data is needed on the timing of ECI in LMICs. Emerging evidence supports community-based ECI which focus on peer support, responsive caregiving and preventing secondary morbidities. A combination of individual home visits and community-based groups are likely the best strategy for the delivery of ECI, but more evidence is needed to form strong recommendations, particularly on the dosage of interventions. More data on content, impact and implementation of ECI in LMICs for high-risk infants are urgently needed. The development of ECI for high-risk groups will build on universal early child development best practice but will likely require tailoring to local contexts

Beyond ten-year risk: novel approaches to the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

In cost-effectiveness analysis, outcomes are typically averaged across large groups to represent a patient population. Implementation and reimbursement decisions based on such analyses often ignore considerable heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness between patients. While good practice guidance for economic evaluations suggest including subgroup analysis, in practice this is frequently overlooked or underutilised. This thesis shows that failing to adequately represent heterogeneity in decision-making leads to an inefficient distribution of healthcare resources. This theory is applied in a study of cholesterol-reducing medication for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite improvements in recent years, CVD remains a significant cause of mortality, morbidity, and health inequality around the world. Rates of the disease have begun to plateau in recent years and novel approaches to its prevention are required. Cholesterol reduction for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is a clinical area where better reflection of heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness could significantly improve current practice. Statins are a widely prescribed cholesterol-reducing medication which have recently come off patent. This has led them to become cheaper and cost-effective in a large proportion of CVD-free populations in high-income countries. PCSK9 inhibitors are a more expensive and more effective cholesterol-reducing medication. For both treatments, decision-makers must establish which groups they will prioritise for treatment. Through epidemiologic and health economic analysis, this thesis aims to establish optimal approaches for prioritising patients for cholesterol-reducing therapy. Preventive statin therapy is typically targeted at individuals estimated to have a high ten-year risk of developing CVD. However, individuals with the same ten-year risk may experience different outcomes from preventive treatment. The epidemiologic bases for three alternative approaches to the CVD prevention are discussed. These are: (i) continued use of ten-year risk scoring, (ii) novel decision mechanisms which incorporate ten-year risk, and (iii) direct use of decision-analytic models in clinical practice to guide treatment decisions. Several treatment policies may be characterised by one of the aforementioned approaches to prevention. These include: lowering the risk threshold for treatment initiation, improving the discrimination of risk scores with novel biomarker testing, age-stratified risk thresholds, absolute risk reduction-guided therapy, and outcome maximisation with decision-analytic models. Decision-analytic modelling was employed to assess the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these policies. Additional analysis showed how decision-makers can signal demand for PCSK9 inhibitors and achieve welfare gains by reflecting heterogeneity in their decision-making. This thesis demonstrates the importance of reflecting heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness. It shows that standard care regarding the primary prevention of CVD often ignores heterogeneity, leading to suboptimal decision-making. This holds true for long-established, inexpensive treatments like statin therapy and novel, expensive treatments like PCSK9 inhibitors

Projecting the fiscal impact of South Africa’s contraceptive needs: Scaling up family planning post 2020

Background. Evidence-informed priority setting is vital to improved investment in public health interventions. This is particularly important as South Africa (SA) makes the shift to universal health coverage and institution of National Health Insurance.Objectives. To measure the financial impact of increasing the demand for modern contraceptive methods in the SA public health sector. We estimated the total cost of providing contraceptives, and specifically the budgetary impact of premature removals of long-acting reversible contraceptives.Methods. We created a deterministic model in Microsoft Excel to estimate the costs of contraception provision over a 5-year time horizon (2018 - 2023) from a healthcare provider perspective. Only direct costs of service provision were considered, including drugs, supplies and personnel time. Costs were not discounted owing to the short time horizon. Scenario analyses were conducted to test uncertainty.Results. The base-case cost of current contraceptive use in 2018 was estimated to be ZAR1.64 billion (ZAR29 per capita). Injectable contraceptives accounted for ~47% of total costs. To meet the total demand for family planning, SA would have to spend ~30% more than the estimate for current contraceptive use. In the year 2023, the ‘current use’ of modern contraceptives would increase to ZAR2.2 billion, and fulfilling the total demand for family planning would require ZAR2.9 billion. The base-case cost of implantable contraceptives was estimated at ZAR54 million. Assuming a normal removal rate, the use of implants is projected to increase by 20% during the 5-year period between 2019 and 2023, with an estimated 46% increase in costs. The cost of early removal of Implanon NXT is estimated at ZAR75 million, with total contraception costs estimated at ZAR102 million in 2019, compared with ZAR56 million when a normal removal rate is applied.Conclusions. The costs of scaling up modern contraceptives in SA are substantial. Early and premature removals of implantable contraceptives are costly to the nation and must be minimised. The government should consider conducting appropriate health technology assessments to inform the introduction of new public health interventions as SA makes the shift to universal health coverage by means of National Health Insurance.

Surviving and Thriving: Early Intervention for Neonatal Survivors With Developmental Disability in Uganda.

Global attention on early child development, inclusive of those with disability, has the potential to translate into improved action for the millions of children with developmental disability living in low- and middle-income countries. Nurturing care is crucial for all children, arguably even more so for children with developmental disability. A high proportion of survivors of neonatal conditions such as prematurity and neonatal encephalopathy are affected by early child developmental disability. The first thousand days of life is a critical period for neuroplasticity and an important window of opportunity for interventions, which maximize developmental potential and other outcomes. Since 2010, our group has been examining predictors, outcomes, and experiences of neonatal encephalopathy in Uganda. The need for an early child intervention program to maximize participation and improve the quality of life for children and families became apparent. In response, the "ABAaNA early intervention program," (now re-branding as 'Baby Ubuntu') a group participatory early intervention program for young children with developmental disability and their families, was developed and piloted. Piloting has provided early evidence of feasibility, acceptability, and impact and a feasibility trial is underway. Future research aims to develop programmatic capacity across diverse settings and evaluate its impact at scale

Long-term weight loss following a randomised controlled trial of a weight management programme for men delivered through professional football clubs: the Football Fans in Training follow-up study

Background: Rising levels of obesity require interventions that support people in long-term weight loss. The Football Fans in Training (FFIT) programme uses loyalty to football teams to engage men in weight loss. In 2011/12, a randomised controlled trial (RCT) found that the FFIT programme was effective in helping men lose weight up to 12 months. Objectives: To investigate the long-term weight, and other physical, behavioural and psychological outcomes up to 3.5 years after the start of the RCT; the predictors, mediators and men’s qualitative experiences of long-term weight loss; cost-effectiveness; and the potential for long-term follow-up via men’s medical records. Design: A mixed-methods, longitudinal cohort study. Setting: Thirteen professional Scottish football clubs from the RCT and 16 additional Scottish football clubs that delivered the FFIT programme in 2015/16. Participants: A total of 665 men who were aged 35–65 years at the RCT baseline measures and who consented to follow-up after the RCT (intervention group, n = 316; comparison group, n = 349), and 511 men who took part in the 2015/16 deliveries of the FFIT programme. Interventions: None as part of this study. Main outcome measures: Objectively measured weight change from the RCT baseline to 3.5 years. Results: In total, 488 out of 665 men (73.4%) attended 3.5-year measurements. Participants in the FFIT follow-up intervention group sustained a mean weight loss from baseline of 2.90 kg [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.78 to 4.02 kg; p Additional co-authors: Colin McCowan, Alice McLean, Nanette Mutri

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa’s seasonal influenza vaccination programme

Background: Seasonal influenza imposes a significant health and economic burden in South Africa, particularly in populations vulnerable to severe consequences of influenza. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of South Africa’s seasonal influenza vaccination strategy, which involves vaccinating vulnerable populations with trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) during routine facility visits. Vulnerable populations included in our analysis are persons aged ≥ 65 years; pregnant women; persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), persons of any age with underlying medical conditions (UMC) and children aged 6–59 months. Method: We employed the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Cost Effectiveness Tool for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination (CETSIV), a decision tree model, to evaluate the 2018 seasonal influenza vaccination campaign from a public healthcare provider and societal perspective. CETSIV was populated with existing country-specific demographic, epidemiologic and coverage data to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by comparing costs and benefits of the influenza vaccination programme to no vaccination. Results: The highest number of clinical events (influenza cases, outpatient visits, hospitalisation and deaths) were averted in PLWHA and persons with other UMCs. Using a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$3 400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), our findings suggest that the vaccination programme is cost-effective for all vulnerable populations except for children aged 6–59 months. ICERs ranged from ~US$ 1 750 /QALY in PLWHA to ~US$ 7 500/QALY in children. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the vaccination programme was cost-effective in pregnant women, PLWHA, persons with UMCs and persons aged ≥65 years in >80% of simulations. These findings were robust to changes in many model inputs but were most sensitive to uncertainty in estimates of influenza-associated illness burden. Conclusion: South Africa's seasonal influenza vaccination strategy of opportunistically targeting vulnerable populations during routine visits is cost-effective. A budget impact analysis will be useful for supporting future expansions of the programme

Group B Streptococcal Disease Worldwide for Pregnant Women, Stillbirths, and Children: Why, What, and How to Undertake Estimates?

Improving maternal, newborn, and child health is central to Sustainable Development Goal targets for 2030, requiring acceleration especially to prevent 5.6 million deaths around the time of birth. Infections contribute to this burden, but etiological data are limited. Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is an important perinatal pathogen, although previously focus has been primarily on liveborn children, especially early-onset disease. In this first of an 11-article supplement, we discuss the following: (1) Why estimate the worldwide burden of GBS disease? (2) What outcomes of GBS in pregnancy should be included? (3) What data and epidemiological parameters are required? (4) What methods and models can be used to transparently estimate this burden of GBS? (5) What are the challenges with available data? and (6) How can estimates address data gaps to better inform GBS interventions including maternal immunization? We review all available GBS data worldwide, including maternal GBS colonization, risk of neonatal disease (with/without intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis), maternal GBS disease, neonatal/infant GBS disease, and subsequent impairment, plus GBS-associated stillbirth, preterm birth, and neonatal encephalopathy. We summarize our methods for searches, meta-analyses, and modeling including a compartmental model. Our approach is consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER), published in The Lancet and the Public Library of Science (PLoS). We aim to address priority epidemiological gaps highlighted by WHO to inform potential maternal vaccination

Beyond 10-Year Risk: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Statins for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cholesterol guidelines typically prioritize primary prevention statin therapy on the basis of 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. The advent of generic pricing may justify expansion of statin eligibility. Moreover, 10-year risk may not be the optimal approach for statin prioritization. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of expanding preventive statin eligibility and evaluated novel approaches to prioritization from a Scottish health sector perspective. METHODS: A computer simulation model predicted long-term health and cost outcomes in Scottish adults ≥40 years of age. Epidemiologic analysis was completed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort, Scottish Morbidity Records, and National Records of Scotland. A simulation cohort was constructed with data from the Scottish Health Survey 2011 and contemporary population estimates. Treatment and cost inputs were derived from published literature and health service cost data. The main outcome measure was the lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, evaluated as cost (2020 GBP) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Three approaches to statin prioritization were analyzed: 10-year risk scoring using the ASSIGN score, age-stratified risk thresholds to increase treatment rates in younger individuals, and absolute risk reduction (ARR)-guided therapy to increase treatment rates in individuals with elevated cholesterol levels. For each approach, 2 policies were considered: treating the same number of individuals as those with an ASSIGN score ≥20% (age-stratified risk threshold 20, ARR 20) and treating the same number of individuals as those with an ASSIGN score ≥10% (age-stratified risk threshold 10, ARR 10). RESULTS: Compared with an ASSIGN score ≥20%, reducing the risk threshold for statin initiation to 10% expanded eligibility from 804 000 (32% of adults ≥40 years of age without CVD) to 1 445 500 individuals (58%). This policy would be cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, £12 300/QALY [95% CI, £7690/QALY-£26 500/QALY]). Incremental to an ASSIGN score ≥20%, ARR 20 produced ≈8800 QALYs and was cost-effective (£7050/QALY [95% CI, £4560/QALY-£10 700/QALY]). Incremental to an ASSIGN score ≥10%, ARR 10 produced ≈7950 QALYs and was cost-effective (£11 700/QALY [95% CI, £9250/QALY-£16 900/QALY]). Both age-stratified risk threshold strategies were dominated (ie, more expensive and less effective than alternative treatment strategies). CONCLUSIONS: Generic pricing has rendered preventive statin therapy cost-effective for many adults. ARR-guided therapy is more effective than 10-year risk scoring and is cost-effective

Hospital clusters of invasive Group B Streptococcal disease: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize outbreaks of invasive Group B Streptococcal (iGBS) disease in hospitals. METHODS: Systematic review using electronic databases to identify studies describing iGBS outbreaks/clusters or cross-infection/acquisition in healthcare settings where 'cluster' was defined as ≥2 linked cases. PROSPERO CRD42018096297. RESULTS: Twenty-five references were included describing 30 hospital clusters (26 neonatal, 4 adult) in 11 countries from 1966 to 2019. Cross-infection between unrelated neonates was reported in 19 clusters involving an early-onset (<7 days of life; n = 3), late-onset (7-90 days; n = 13) index case or colonized infant (n = 3) followed by one or more late-onset cases (median serial interval 9 days (IQR 3-17, range 0-50 days, n = 45)); linkage was determined by phage typing in 3 clusters, PFGE/MLST/PCR in 8, WGS in 4, non-molecular methods in 4. Postulated routes of transmission in neonatal clusters were via clinical personnel and equipment, particularly during periods of crowding and high patient-to-nurse ratio. Of 4 adult clusters, one was attributed to droplet spread between respiratory cases, one to handling of haemodialysis catheters and two unspecified. CONCLUSIONS: Long intervals between cases were identified in most of the clusters, a characteristic which potentially hinders detection of GBS hospital outbreaks without enhanced surveillance supported by genomics

Early detection and intervention for young children with early developmental disabilities in Western Uganda: a mixed-methods evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Early support for children with developmental disabilities is crucial but frequently unavailable in low-resource settings. We conducted a mixed-methods evaluation to assess the feasibility, acceptability, and impact of a programme of early detection and intervention for young children with developmental disabilities in Western Uganda. METHODS: Early child development training for healthcare workers (HCWs) was implemented in three rural districts, and attendance was tracked. HCW knowledge and confidence were assessed pre-/post-intervention, and referral numbers tracked to evaluate impact. Facilitators were trained and mentored to deliver a participatory, group, early intervention programme (EIP) for young children with developmental disabilities and their families. Facilitators were tracked as they were identified, trained, and delivered the intervention, and attendance of families was tracked. Pre-/post-intervention assessments evaluated changes in family quality of life (PedsQL 2.0, Family Impact Module), and child nutritional outcomes. Focus group discussions with stakeholders also assessed feasibility, acceptability and impact. RESULTS: Overall, 93 HCWs from 45 healthcare facilities received training. In the pre-/post-evaluation, median knowledge and confidence scores increased significantly (from 4.0 to 7.0 and from 2.7 to 4.7, respectively (p < 0.001)). HCWs reported feeling empowered to refer and offer care for families with a young child with disability. Referral rates increased significantly from 148 to 251 per annum (70%; p = 0.03). Eleven EIP facilitators were trained, and all delivered the intervention; 84 families were enrolled, of which 78% attended at least 6 out of 10 modules. Amongst those with paired pre-/post-intervention data (n = 48), total family quality of life scores increased significantly (21%, p < 0.001). Improvements were seen across all domains of quality of life, with the largest impacts on emotional functioning and social functioning (p < 0.001). The programme was acceptable to caregivers and facilitators. Caregivers reported improved knowledge, family relationships, hope, emotional wellbeing, and reduced self-stigma. CONCLUSIONS: A programme of early detection and intervention for children with early developmental disabilities and their families was feasible and acceptable in a rural community-based Ugandan setting. HCW training positively impacted knowledge, confidence, attitudes, and referral rates. Families enrolled to the EIP reported significant improvements in quality of life. Important programmatic barriers identified included geographical spread, poverty, gender inequality, and stigma