Election outcomes and maximizing turnout: Modelling the effect

An election outcome reflects institutional, behavioural and attitudinal influences. We set out a model showing it is a function of the electoral system, the offices at stake and the number of parties competing as well as the choices of voters and the level of turnout. Therefore, any attempt to estimate the impact of increased turnout on an election outcome must go beyond a comparison of the party preferences of voters and non-voters. This paper presents a model which integrates six different types of influences that collectively determine election outcomes. It demonstrates empirically that maximum turnout falls well short of 100 percent turnout. It also shows the effect of proportional representation and multiple parties in reducing the net benefit that any one party could expect from increased turnout and the inadequacy of using shares of the popular vote to predict increased turnout effects in the United States. It leaves open the normative debate between advocates of civic participation and the libertarian value of being free not to vote. --

Election outcomes and maximizing turnout: Modelling the effect

An election outcome reflects institutional, behavioural and attitudinal influences. We set out a model showing it is a function of the electoral system, the offices at stake and the number of parties competing as well as the choices of voters and the level of turnout. Therefore, any attempt to estimate the impact of increased turnout on an election outcome must go beyond a comparison of the party preferences of voters and non-voters. This paper presents a model which integrates six different types of influences that collectively determine election outcomes. It demonstrates empirically that maximum turnout falls well short of 100 percent turnout. It also shows the effect of proportional representation and multiple parties in reducing the net benefit that any one party could expect from increased turnout and the inadequacy of using shares of the popular vote to predict increased turnout effects in the United States. It leaves open the normative debate between advocates of civic participation and the libertarian value of being free not to vote

Election outcomes and maximizing turnout: modelling the effect

"An election outcome reflects institutional, behavioural and attitudinal influences. We set out a model showing it is a function of the electoral system, the offices at stake and the number of parties competing as well as the choices of voters and the level of turnout. Therefore, any attempt to estimate the impact of increased turnout on an election outcome must go beyond a comparison of the party preferences of voters and non-voters. This paper presents a model which integrates six different types of influences that collectively determine election outcomes. It demonstrates empirically that maximum turnout falls well short of 100 percent turnout. It also shows the effect of proportional representation and multiple parties in reducing the net benefit that any one party could expect from increased turnout and the inadequacy of using shares of the popular vote to predict increased turnout effects in the United States. It leaves open the normative debate between advocates of civic participation and the libertarian value of being free not to vote." (author's abstract

Visual_HEA: Habitat Equivalency Analysis Software to Calculate Compensatory Restoration Following Natural Resource Injury

Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) is a means to determine the amount of compensatory restoration required to provide services that are equivalent to the interim loss of natural resource services following an injury. HEA includes a discounting procedure to account for asset valuation in that the total asset value is equal to the discounted value of the future stream of all services from the natural resource or the compensatory resource. Discounting is used to include the relative valuation of loss and gain of ecological services of the resources over time. Visual_HEA is a computer program developed to calculate the amount of compensatory resource services that would be required to match those lost following an injury to natural resources. The program accepts input of parameters necessary to determine long-term service loss from the injury and long-term service gain from the desired compensatory restoration action. HEA results are highly dependent upon assumptions, and consequently it is useful to examine sensitivity of results to a range of parameter values. Visual_HEA offers an intuitive graphical interface that allows the user to input or modify input parameters and hence quickly create or alter the lost and gain service level shape functions. The ability to calculate results of many scenarios allows ready comparisons that may assist in determination of the most appropriate compensatory action

Prize Volatility and Presence or Absence of Anticipatory Sitmulus Signally Reward as Predictors of Electronic Game Machine Behaviour of Gamblers

This study investigated the effect of changes in prize volatility and presence or absence of an anticipatory stimulus signally reward on verbal ratings, playing behaviour, and biometric responses in casual and frequent electronic gaming machine (EGM) players. Biometric measurements of 129 participants were recorded while they played an actual EGM with money provided by the experimenters. However, only the data from 95 participants were analysed. Participants were first connected to biometric sensors to record their heart rate and galvanic skin responses, and completed a demographic questionnaire. All participants then played an EGM game for 10 minutes. After playing the EGM game, they either played the same EGM game or a different EGM game for another 10 minutes in accord with their experimental condition. The second game was characterized by one of four conditions, (a) low volatility, absence of anticipatory stimulus, (b) low volatility, presence of anticipatory stimulus, (c) high volatility, absence of anticipatory stimulus, and (d) high volatility, presence of anticipatory stimulus. After 20 minutes of EGM play, participants completed the Canadian Problem Gambling Index (CPGI; Ferris & Wynne, 2001). Statistical results revealed that the volatility condition had a significant effect on how quickly a player would bet. That is, players bet later in conditions with higher volatility. Furthermore, frequent players bet later than casual players. There was a significant interaction between volatility and player type, but the anticipatory stimulus condition was not found to have a significant effect on playing behaviour

A comparison of the fluency of oral, written and multiple-choice recall after silent reading of five grade levels

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit

\u3ci\u3eChrysobothris rugosiceps\u3c/i\u3e Melsheimer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) found in Washington state

Chrysobothris rugosiceps Melsheimer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is reported from Washington State from a single specimen caught in a Lindgren funnel trap. Clearly this represents an exotic to the region, as the closest known occurrence of this native U.S.A. species is in the Dakotas

Eocene turtles and whales from New Zealand

This thesis documents eleven specimens of Eocene turtles (Reptilia: Testudines: Dermochelyidae, Cheloniidae) and seven specimens of archaeocete whales (Mammalia: Cetacea: Basilosauridae) from New Zealand. All taxa derive from marine sediments from the New Zealand Bortonian, Kaiatan and Runangan Stages (late middle to late Eocene). The first fossil record of the family Dermochelyidae (genus Psephophorus) from the Southern Hemisphere is based on five specimens from the Waihao Greensand near Waimate in South Canterbury, and a dermochelyid humerus from the Burnside Mudstone near Dunedin. One large specimen from the Waihao Greensand is the holotype of the new species Psephophorus terrypratchetti Kohler, 1995b; other specimens are referred to this species. Comparisons with specimens from overseas show that the New Zealand Psephophorus fossils are distinctive in that keels are lacking on their secondary carapace, and primary carapace elements are more pronounced than in geologically younger species elsewhere. A cladistic analysis of dermochelyids, together with a new interpretation of the evolution of their secondary carapace, supports an early Tertiary origin for this group of marine turtles. Changes in the secondary armour during the late Pliocene to earliest Pleistocene are probably linked to a cooling world climate. The New Zealand Psephophorus fossils represent one of the earliest records of this genus worldwide. Elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere, Eocene dermochelyids (undescribed) have been reported from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula. Other fossil turtles from New Zealand include sparse non-dermochelyid material from the West Coast of the South Island and one specimen from the North Island (Kaipara Harbour, Northland). These fragments also indicate marine animals, which could not, however, be identified beyond family level. The New Zealand record of fossil turtles differs from the Australian record in that there are no terrestrial turtles reported from New Zealand, and no Tertiary marine turtles from Australia. This discrepancy may be explained by differences in preservation and accessibility of marine facies, but may also be due to insufficient prospecting work. Cetacean fossils (archaeocetes) are known from two formations, the Waihao Greensand in South Canterbury and the Mangatu Mudstone near Gisborne in the North Island. The six specimens from the Waihao Greensand are Bortonian to Kaiatan in age; they represent animals related to the dorudontine genus Zygorhiza, and an animal more than twice as large which could not be placed within a known archaeocete group. The age for the single specimen from the North Island, which is also referred to the dorudontine genus Zygorhiza, can only be given as middle to late Eocene. The La Meseta Formation of Seymour Island represents the nearest location from which archaeocetes and Eocene dermochelyids are reported. Large, nondorudontine cetacean fossils from Seymour Island may represent the same taxon as the large archaeocete fossil from New Zealand. The New Zealand archaeocetes form, apart from an isolated find from early Lutetian strata in Senegal, the second oldest record for Dorudontinae worldwide, and one of very few substantiated records of archaeocetes in the Southern Hemisphere; they are seen as an indicator for an early colonisation of southern seas by archaic whales. Because most of the archaeocete specimens and all but one dermochelyid derived from Bortonian to Kaiatan greensands in the Waihao River Basin, this area was mapped in detail. A fine-stratigraphy is established for the Waihao Greensand in the study area, based on two widespread index horizons, which are used to link outcrops and to establish the relative age of the different units of Waihao Greensand as exposed in different parts of this area. A depositional model for the Waihao Greensand is given, showing that the sediment was deposited during a steady rise in sea-level under tropical to subtropical conditions; it can be correlated approximately to a middle Lutetian to middle Bartonian age

CoralXDS - Coral X-radiograph Densitometry System

The Coral X-radiograph Densitometry System (CoralXDS) is a Windows-based program which provides a tool for measurement of linear extension, density, and calcification from coral X-radiographs. These quantities are determined for high-density, low-density, and annual bands. CoralXDS operates in two modes : full mode and extension/luminance mode. Full mode measures linear extension, density, and calcification, while extension/luminance mode measures only linear extension. Extension/luminance mode requires only a coral image with scaling information. CoralXDS allows user specification of transect location and orientation on the coral image, and provides several options for automated and manual band selection. The output measurements are provided as plots and datasets