1,908 research outputs found
Bayesian Target Zones
Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An empirical model for exchange rates in a soft target zone where there is a controlled probability of the observed rates exceeding the stated limits is developed in this paper. A Bayesian approach is used to analyse the model, which is then demonstrated on Deutschemark-French franc and ECU-French franc exchange rate data.
Topological Defects Formation after Inflation on Lattice Simulation
We consider the formation of topological defects after inflation. In order to
take into account the effects of the rescattering of fluctuations, we integrate
the classical equation that describes the evolution of a complex scalar field
on the two-dimensional lattice with a slab symmetry. The growth of fluctuations
during preheating is found not to be enough for defect formation, and rather a
long stage of the rescattering of fluctuations after preheating is necessary.
We conclude that the topological defects are not formed if the breaking scale
\eta is lager than \sim (2 - 3)\times 10^{16} GeV.Comment: 7 pages, RevTex, 10 postscript figures included; version to be
published in Phys. Rev.
Universal dynamical control of quantum mechanical decay: Modulation of the coupling to the continuum
We derive and investigate an expression for the dynamically modified decay of
states coupled to an arbitrary continuum. This expression is universally valid
for weak temporal perturbations. The resulting insights can serve as useful
recipes for optimized control of decay and decoherence.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Rewritten, changed figures, added reference
Volume bounds for generalized twisted torus links
Twisted torus knots and links are given by twisting adjacent strands of a
torus link. They are geometrically simple and contain many examples of the
smallest volume hyperbolic knots. Many are also Lorenz links.
We study the geometry of twisted torus links and related generalizations. We
determine upper bounds on their hyperbolic volumes that depend only on the
number of strands being twisted. We exhibit a family of twisted torus knots for
which this upper bound is sharp, and another family with volumes approaching
infinity. Consequently, we show there exist twisted torus knots with
arbitrarily large braid index and yet bounded volume.Comment: Revised version to appear in Mathematical Research Letters. 21 pages,
14 figure
Diversification Meltdown or the Impact of Fat tails on Conditional Correlation?
A perceived increase in correlation during turbulent market conditions implies a reduction in the benefits arising from portfolio diversification. Unfortunately, it is exactly then that these benefits are most needed. To determine whether diversification truly breaks down, we investigate the robustness of a popular conditional correlation estimator against alternative distributional assumptions. Analytical results show that the apparent meltdown in the benefits from diversification could be a consequence of assuming normally distributed returns. A more realistic assumption - the bivariate Student-t distribution - suggests that constant correlation may be sustained over the full support of the multivariate return distributionConditional correlation, Truncated correlation, Bivariate Student-t correlation.
Acoustic peaks and dips in the CMB power spectrum: observational data and cosmological constraints
The locations and amplitudes of three acoustic peaks and two dips in the last
releases of the Boomerang, MAXIMA and DASI measurements of the cosmic microwave
background (CMB) anisotropy power spectra as well as their statistical
confidence levels are determined in a model-independent way. It is shown that
the Boomerang-2001 data (Netterfield et al. 2001) fixes the location and
amplitude of the first acoustic peak at more than 3\sigma confidence level. The
next two peaks and dips are determined at a confidence level above 1\sigma but
below 2\sigma. The locations and amplitudes of the first three peaks and two
dips are 212+/-17, 5426+/-1218\mu K^2, 544+/-56, 2266+/-607\mu K^2, 843+/-35,
2077+/-876\mu K^2, 413+/-50, 1960+/-503\mu K^2, 746+/-89, 1605+/-650\mu K^2
respectively (1\sigma errors include statistical and systematic errors). The
MAXIMA and DASI experiments give similar values for the extrema which they
determine. The determined cosmological parameters from the CMB acoustic extrema
data show good agreement with other determinations, especially with the baryon
content as deduced from standard nucleosynthesis constraints. These data
supplemented by the constraints from direct measurements of some cosmological
parameters and data on large scale structure lead to a best-fit model which
agrees with practically all the used experimental data within 1\sigma. The
best-fit parameters are: \Omega_{\Lambda}=0.64^{+0.14}_{-0.27}, \Omega_{m}=
0.36^{+0.21}_{-0.11}, \Omega_b=0.047^{+0.093}_{-0.024},
n_s=1.0^{+0.59}_{-0.17}, h=0.65^{+0.35}_{-0.27} and \tau_c=0.15^{+0.95}_{-0.15}
(plus/minus values show 1\sigma upper/lower limits obtained by marginalization
over all other model parameters). The best-fit values of \Omega_{\nu} and T/S
are close to zero, their 1\sigma upper limits are 0.17 and 1.7 respectively.Comment: 34 pages, 10 figures; accepted by ApJ; some corrections in the text
are made and a few references are adde
Chaos and Preheating
We show evidence for a relationship between chaos and parametric resonance
both in a classical system and in the semiclassical process of particle
creation. We apply our considerations in a toy model for preheating after
inflation.Comment: 7 pages, 9 figures; uses epsfig and revtex v3.1. Matches version
accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.
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