Bayesian Target Zones

Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An empirical model for exchange rates in a soft target zone where there is a controlled probability of the observed rates exceeding the stated limits is developed in this paper. A Bayesian approach is used to analyse the model, which is then demonstrated on Deutschemark-French franc and ECU-French franc exchange rate data.

Topological Defects Formation after Inflation on Lattice Simulation

We consider the formation of topological defects after inflation. In order to take into account the effects of the rescattering of fluctuations, we integrate the classical equation that describes the evolution of a complex scalar field on the two-dimensional lattice with a slab symmetry. The growth of fluctuations during preheating is found not to be enough for defect formation, and rather a long stage of the rescattering of fluctuations after preheating is necessary. We conclude that the topological defects are not formed if the breaking scale \eta is lager than \sim (2 - 3)\times 10^{16} GeV.Comment: 7 pages, RevTex, 10 postscript figures included; version to be published in Phys. Rev.

Universal dynamical control of quantum mechanical decay: Modulation of the coupling to the continuum

We derive and investigate an expression for the dynamically modified decay of states coupled to an arbitrary continuum. This expression is universally valid for weak temporal perturbations. The resulting insights can serve as useful recipes for optimized control of decay and decoherence.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Rewritten, changed figures, added reference

Volume bounds for generalized twisted torus links

Twisted torus knots and links are given by twisting adjacent strands of a torus link. They are geometrically simple and contain many examples of the smallest volume hyperbolic knots. Many are also Lorenz links. We study the geometry of twisted torus links and related generalizations. We determine upper bounds on their hyperbolic volumes that depend only on the number of strands being twisted. We exhibit a family of twisted torus knots for which this upper bound is sharp, and another family with volumes approaching infinity. Consequently, we show there exist twisted torus knots with arbitrarily large braid index and yet bounded volume.Comment: Revised version to appear in Mathematical Research Letters. 21 pages, 14 figure

Diversification Meltdown or the Impact of Fat tails on Conditional Correlation?

A perceived increase in correlation during turbulent market conditions implies a reduction in the benefits arising from portfolio diversification. Unfortunately, it is exactly then that these benefits are most needed. To determine whether diversification truly breaks down, we investigate the robustness of a popular conditional correlation estimator against alternative distributional assumptions. Analytical results show that the apparent meltdown in the benefits from diversification could be a consequence of assuming normally distributed returns. A more realistic assumption - the bivariate Student-t distribution - suggests that constant correlation may be sustained over the full support of the multivariate return distributionConditional correlation, Truncated correlation, Bivariate Student-t correlation.

Acoustic peaks and dips in the CMB power spectrum: observational data and cosmological constraints

The locations and amplitudes of three acoustic peaks and two dips in the last releases of the Boomerang, MAXIMA and DASI measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy power spectra as well as their statistical confidence levels are determined in a model-independent way. It is shown that the Boomerang-2001 data (Netterfield et al. 2001) fixes the location and amplitude of the first acoustic peak at more than 3\sigma confidence level. The next two peaks and dips are determined at a confidence level above 1\sigma but below 2\sigma. The locations and amplitudes of the first three peaks and two dips are 212+/-17, 5426+/-1218\mu K^2, 544+/-56, 2266+/-607\mu K^2, 843+/-35, 2077+/-876\mu K^2, 413+/-50, 1960+/-503\mu K^2, 746+/-89, 1605+/-650\mu K^2 respectively (1\sigma errors include statistical and systematic errors). The MAXIMA and DASI experiments give similar values for the extrema which they determine. The determined cosmological parameters from the CMB acoustic extrema data show good agreement with other determinations, especially with the baryon content as deduced from standard nucleosynthesis constraints. These data supplemented by the constraints from direct measurements of some cosmological parameters and data on large scale structure lead to a best-fit model which agrees with practically all the used experimental data within 1\sigma. The best-fit parameters are: \Omega_{\Lambda}=0.64^{+0.14}_{-0.27}, \Omega_{m}= 0.36^{+0.21}_{-0.11}, \Omega_b=0.047^{+0.093}_{-0.024}, n_s=1.0^{+0.59}_{-0.17}, h=0.65^{+0.35}_{-0.27} and \tau_c=0.15^{+0.95}_{-0.15} (plus/minus values show 1\sigma upper/lower limits obtained by marginalization over all other model parameters). The best-fit values of \Omega_{\nu} and T/S are close to zero, their 1\sigma upper limits are 0.17 and 1.7 respectively.Comment: 34 pages, 10 figures; accepted by ApJ; some corrections in the text are made and a few references are adde

Chaos and Preheating

We show evidence for a relationship between chaos and parametric resonance both in a classical system and in the semiclassical process of particle creation. We apply our considerations in a toy model for preheating after inflation.Comment: 7 pages, 9 figures; uses epsfig and revtex v3.1. Matches version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.