Quantitative analysis of transmission parameters for bluetongue virus serotype 8 in Western Europe in 2006

The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures

Cross-validation of generic risk assessment tools for animal disease incursion based on a case study for African swine fever

In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclusions on the ASF risk were similar across the generic RA tools, despite differences observed in calculated risks. Hence, it was concluded that the cross-validation contributed to the credibility of their results.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Scientific Opinion on peste des petits ruminants

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a severe viral disease of small ruminants caused by a Morbillivirus closely related to rinderpest virus. It is widespread in Africa and Asia and is currently also found in Turkey and Northern Africa. PPR is transmitted via direct contact, and the disease would mainly be transferred to infection-free areas by transport of infected animals. In the EU, it could only happen through illegal transport of animals. The risk of that depends on the prevalence in the country of origin and the number of animals illegally moved. The extent of the spread would depend mainly on the time during which it is undetected, the farm density, the frequency and distance of travel of animals. PPR has a high within-herd transmission rate, therefore contacts between flocks, e.g. through common grazing areas, should be avoided when PPR is present. If PPR enters EU areas with dense sheep population but low goat density, it may spread rapidly undetected, since goats are considered more susceptible than sheep. Effective measures in limiting the spread of PPR in the EU include prompt culling of infected herds, rapid detection, movement restriction, and disinfection. Live attenuated vaccines against PPR are available, safe and effective, and have been successfully used to control PPR epidemics, but no method exists for differentiating between infected and vaccinated animals; therefore, the development of one is recommended. Awareness-raising campaigns for farmers and veterinary staff to promote recognition of the disease should be considered. The cooperation of the EU with neighbouring countries should be encouraged to prevent the spread 20 of PPR and other transboundary diseases

Financial Evaluation of Different Vaccination Strategies for Controlling the Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 Epidemic in the Netherlands in 2008

Background: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008 Methodology/Principal Findings: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in the Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of the Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficienc

Attributable sources of community-acquired carriage of Escherichia coli containing β-lactam antibiotic resistance genes: a population-based modelling study

Background: Extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC), plasmid-mediated AmpC-producing E coli (pAmpC-EC), and other bacteria are resistant to important β-lactam antibiotics. ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC are increasingly reported in animals, food, the environment, and community-acquired and health-care-associated human infections. These infections are usually preceded by asymptomatic carriage, for which attributions to animal, food, environmental, and human sources remain unquantified. Methods: In this population-based modelling study, we collected ESBL and pAmpC gene data on the Netherlands population for 2005–17 from published datasets of gene occurrences in E coli isolates from different sources, and from partners of the ESBL Attribution Consortium and the Dutch National Antimicrobial Surveillance System. Using these data, we applied an established source attribution model based on ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC prevalence and gene data for humans, including high-risk populations (ie, returning travellers, clinical patients, farmers), farm and companion animals, food, surface freshwater, and wild birds, and human exposure data, to quantify the overall and gene-specific attributable sources of community-acquired ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC intestinal carriage. We also used a simple transmission model to determine the basic reproduction number (R0) in the open community. Findings: We identified 1220 occurrences of ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC genes in humans, of which 478 were in clinical patients, 454 were from asymptomatic carriers in the open community, 103 were in poultry and pig farmers, and 185 were in people who had travelled out of the region. We also identified 6275 occurrences in non-human sources, including 479 in companion animals, 4026 in farm animals, 66 in wild birds, 1430 from food products, and 274 from surface freshwater. Most community-acquired ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC carriage was attributed to human-to-human transmission within or between households in the open community (60·1%, 95% credible interval 40·0–73·5), and to secondary transmission from high-risk groups (6·9%, 4·1–9·2). Food accounted for 18·9% (7·0–38·3) of carriage, companion animals for 7·9% (1·4–19·9), farm animals (non-occupational contact) for 3·6% (0·6–9·9), and swimming in freshwater and wild birds (ie, environmental contact) for 2·6% (0·2–8·7). We derived an R0 of 0·63 (95% CI 0·42–0·77) for intracommunity transmission. Interpretation: Although humans are the main source of community-acquired ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC carriage, the attributable non-human sources underpin the need for longitudinal studies and continuous monitoring, because intracommunity ESBL-EC and pAmpC-EC spread alone is unlikely to be self-maintaining without transmission to and from non-human sources. Funding: 1Health4Food, Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, and the EU's Horizon-2020 through One-Health European Joint Programme.</p

Quantification of within- and between-pen transmission of Foot-and-Mouth disease virus in pigs

Quantified transmission parameters of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) are needed for epidemic models used for control and surveillance. In this study, we quantified the within- and between-pen transmission of FMDV in groups of pigs by estimating the daily transmission rate $\beta$, i.e. the number of secondary infections caused by one infectious pig during one day, using an SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) model. Within-pen transmission was studied in four groups of ten pigs in which 5 infected and 5 susceptible pigs had direct contact; between-pen transmission was studied in one group of ten pigs in which 5 infected and 5 susceptible pigs had indirect contact. Daily results of virus isolation of oropharyngeal fluid were used to quantify the transmission rate $\beta$, using Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) and a maximum likelihood method. In addition, we estimated the expected time to infection of the first pig within a pen $T_{w}$ and in the indirect-contact pen $T_{b}$. The between-pen transmission rate $\beta$$_{b}$ was estimated to be 0.59 (0.083–4.18) per day, which was significantly lower than the within-pen transmission rate $\beta$$_{w}$ of 6.14 (3.75–10.06). $T_{w}$ was 1.6 h, and $T_{b}$ was 16 h. Our results show that the transmission rate is influenced by contact structure between pigs