The mortality rates and the space-time patterns of John Snow’s cholera epidemic map

Background Snow’s work on the Broad Street map is widely known as a pioneering example of spatial epidemiology. It lacks, however, two significant attributes required in contemporary analyses of disease incidence: population at risk and the progression of the epidemic over time. Despite this has been repeatedly suggested in the literature, no systematic investigation of these two aspects was previously carried out. Using a series of historical documents, this study constructs own data to revisit Snow’s study to examine the mortality rate at each street location and the space-time pattern of the cholera outbreak. Methods This study brings together records from a series of historical documents, and prepares own data on the estimated number of residents at each house location as well as the space-time data of the victims, and these are processed in GIS to facilitate the spatial-temporal analysis. Mortality rates and the space-time pattern in the victims’ records are explored using Kernel Density Estimation and network-based Scan Statistic, a recently developed method that detects significant concentrations of records such as the date and place of victims with respect to their distance from others along the street network. The results are visualised in a map form using a GIS platform. Results Data on mortality rates and space-time distribution of the victims were collected from various sources and were successfully merged and digitised, thus allowing the production of new map outputs and new interpretation of the 1854 cholera outbreak in London, covering more cases than Snow’s original report and also adding new insights into their space-time distribution. They confirmed that areas in the immediate vicinity of the Broad Street pump indeed suffered from excessively high mortality rates, which has been suspected for the past 160 years but remained unconfirmed. No distinctive pattern was found in the space-time distribution of victims’ locations. Conclusions The high mortality rates identified around the Broad Street pump are consistent with Snow’s theory about cholera being transmitted through contaminated water. The absence of a clear space-time pattern also indicates the water-bourne, rather than the then popular belief of air bourne, nature of cholera. The GIS data constructed in this study has an academic value and would cater for further research on Snow’s map

A new concurrent chemotherapy with vinorelbine and mitomycin C in combination with radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

Objective: The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility and toxicity of concurrent chemotherapy with vinorelbine and mitomycin C in combination with accelerated radiotherapy (RT) in patients with locally advanced cancer of the head and neck. Patients and Methods: Between January 2003 and March 2004, 15 patients with T4/N2-3 squamous cell carcinoma (12/15) and with N3 cervical lymph node metastases of carcinoma of unknown primary (3/15) were treated with chemotherapy and simultaneous accelerated RT. Results: 11 patients completed therapy without interruption or dose reduction. Grade 3 - 4 acute mucosal toxicity was observed in 9/15 patients, grade 4 hematologic toxicity in 6/15 patients. At a median follow-up of 7.5 months, 2 patients have died of intercurrent disease, 2 patients have experienced local relapse; 5 patients are alive with no evidence of disease at the primary tumor site. Discussion: The described regimen is highly effective, but led to remarkable side effects

Scintigraphic assessment of bone status at one year following hip resurfacing : comparison of two surgical approaches using SPECT-CT scan

Objectives: To study the vascularity and bone metabolism of the femoral head/neck following hip resurfacing arthroplasty, and to use these results to compare the posterior and the trochanteric-flip approaches. Methods: In our previous work, we reported changes to intra-operative blood flow during hip resurfacing arthroplasty comparing two surgical approaches. In this study, we report the vascularity and the metabolic bone function in the proximal femur in these same patients at one year after the surgery. Vascularity and bone function was assessed using scintigraphic techniques. Of the 13 patients who agreed to take part, eight had their arthroplasty through a posterior approach and five through a trochanteric-flip approach. Results: One year after surgery, we found no difference in the vascularity (vascular phase) and metabolic bone function (delayed phase) at the junction of the femoral head/neck between the two groups of patients. Higher radiopharmaceutical uptake was found in the region of the greater trochanter in the trochanteric-flip group, related to the healing osteotomy. Conclusions: Our findings using scintigraphic techniques suggest that the greater intra-operative reduction in blood flow to the junction of the femoral head/neck, which is seen with the posterior approach compared with trochanteric flip, does not result in any difference in vascularity or metabolic bone function one year after surgery

Self-gravitating elastic bodies

Extended objects in GR are often modelled using distributional solutions of the Einstein equations with point-like sources, or as the limit of infinitesimally small "test" objects. In this note, I will consider models of finite self-gravitating extended objects, which make it possible to give a rigorous treatment of the initial value problem for (finite) extended objects.Comment: 16 pages. Based on a talk given at the 2013 WE-Heraeus seminar on "Equations of motion in relativistic gravity

The genetic basis of multiple sclerosis: a model for MS susceptibility

<p>Abstact</p> <p>Background</p> <p>MS-pathogenesis is known to involve both multiple environmental events, and several independent genetic risk-factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A model of susceptibility is developed and a mathematical analysis undertaken to elucidate the nature of genetic susceptibility to MS and to understand the constraints that are placed on the genetic basis of MS, both by the known epidemiological facts of this disease and by the known frequency of the HLA DRB1*1501 allele in the general populations of northern Europe and North America.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the large majority of cases (possibly all), MS develops, in part, because an individual is genetically susceptible. Nevertheless, 2.2% or less of the general population is genetically susceptible. Moreover, from the model, the number of susceptibility-loci that need to be in a "susceptible allelic state" to produce MS-susceptibility is small (11-18), whereas the total number of such susceptibility-loci is large (50-200), and their "frequency of susceptibility" is low (i.e., ≤ 0.12). The optimal solution to the model equations (which occurs when 80% of the loci are recessive) predicts the epidemiological data quite closely.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The model suggests that combinations of only a small number of genetic loci in a "susceptible allelic state" produce MS-susceptibility. Nevertheless, genome-wide associations studies with hundreds of thousands of SNPs, are plagued by both false-positive and false-negative identifications and, consequently, emphasis has been rightly placed on the replicability of findings. Nevertheless, because genome-wide screens don't distinguish between true susceptibility-loci and disease-modifying-loci, and because only true susceptibility-loci are constrained by the model, unraveling the two will not be possible using this approach.</p> <p>The model also suggests that HLA DRB1 may not be as uniquely important for MS-susceptibility as currently believed. Thus, this allele is only one among a hundred or more loci involved in MS susceptibility. Even though the "frequency of susceptibility" at the HLA DRB1 locus is four-fold that of other loci, the penetrance of those susceptible genotypes that include this allele is no different from those that don't. Also, almost 50% of genetically-susceptible individuals, lack this allele. Moreover, of those who have it, only a small fraction (≤ 5.2%) are even susceptible to getting MS.</p

TRAIL Death Receptor-4, Decoy Receptor-1 and Decoy Receptor-2 Expression on CD8+ T Cells Correlate with the Disease Severity in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disorder. Although the pathogenesis of disease is unclear, it is well known that T cells play a major role in both development and perpetuation of RA through activating macrophages and B cells. Since the lack of TNF-Related Apoptosis Inducing Ligand (TRAIL) expression resulted in defective thymocyte apoptosis leading to an autoimmune disease, we explored evidence for alterations in TRAIL/TRAIL receptor expression on peripheral T lymphocytes in the molecular mechanism of RA development. METHODS: The expression of TRAIL/TRAIL receptors on T cells in 20 RA patients and 12 control individuals were analyzed using flow cytometry. The correlation of TRAIL and its receptor expression profile was compared with clinical RA parameters (RA activity scored as per DAS28) using Spearman Rho Analysis. RESULTS: While no change was detected in the ratio of CD4+ to CD8+ T cells between controls and RA patient groups, upregulation of TRAIL and its receptors (both death and decoy) was detected on both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in RA patients compared to control individuals. Death Receptor-4 (DR4) and the decoy receptors DcR1 and DcR2 on CD8+ T cells, but not on CD4+ T cells, were positively correlated with patients' DAS scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that TRAIL/TRAIL receptor expression profiles on T cells might be important in revelation of RA pathogenesis

Quantum Acoustics with Surface Acoustic Waves

It has recently been demonstrated that surface acoustic waves (SAWs) can interact with superconducting qubits at the quantum level. SAW resonators in the GHz frequency range have also been found to have low loss at temperatures compatible with superconducting quantum circuits. These advances open up new possibilities to use the phonon degree of freedom to carry quantum information. In this paper, we give a description of the basic SAW components needed to develop quantum circuits, where propagating or localized SAW-phonons are used both to study basic physics and to manipulate quantum information. Using phonons instead of photons offers new possibilities which make these quantum acoustic circuits very interesting. We discuss general considerations for SAW experiments at the quantum level and describe experiments both with SAW resonators and with interaction between SAWs and a qubit. We also discuss several potential future developments.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figure