Electricity demand in primary aluminum smelting

The demand for electricity by primary aluminum smelters is estimated econometrically. Cross section data is used, including plant data for the U.S. and Norway and a national average for Japan. The data are sampled for two periods, one before and one after the 1973-74 energy price increase. The paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between electricity and an aggregate of all other inputs, assumed to exist. The estimated value of 0.1 is low, but significantly different from zero. Large price in- creases, such as the equalization of hydro and other power prices are found to result in substantial energy savings

The energy price shock and the 1974-75 recession

Research supported by MIT's Center for Energy Policy Research

An analysis of oil supply disruption scenarios

This report brings the results of simulations of some oil supply disruptions on the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory Energy Macro Model. This model has previously been used to study the macroeconomic effects of the 1973-74 and 1979 oil price shocks, as well as for policy simula- -tions related to these historical events (Mork and Hall, 1980a, 1980b, 1981). Recent extensions of the model allow it to be used for simulation of possible future oil supply disruptions, such as the loss of oil deliveries from Saudi Arabia or the entire Persian Gulf region.The extensions go mainly in the direction of more explicit modeling of thedomestic energy sector and of the world oil market. Although very important, these extensions are still in an experimental stage. Richard Gilbert of the University of California at Berkeley provided invaluable help in modeling the domestic energy sector. The short-run functioning of the world oil market was modeled along the lines suggested by Chao and Manne (1980). Sanjay Srivastava provided useful research assistance in preparing and programming the solution algorithm for the model. None of these persons are, however, in any way responsible for the contents of this report.Three basic disruption scenarios are analyzed, of 3, 10, and 18 million barrels per day (mmbd) on the world level, respectively. Disruptions are modeled as leftward shifts in the world supply curve for oil (OPEC's 'price reaction' curve). All disruptions are assumed to last for one year, but another three years are assumed to be needed to restore the lost capacity. Each disruption scenario is simulated under three different policy assumptions. The first case assumes no new policy. The second case assumes a specific tariff on oil imports, rising from $2.50 in 1981 to a long-run value of$10.00 in 1984. In the third case, an ad valorem tariff is introduced gradually in the same way, from 7.5 percent of the world price in 1981 to 30 percent in 1984. As a last exercise, a 10 mmbd disruption is simulated under the assumption that all relative prices adjust perfectly to clear all markets.Oil supply disruptions are found to add substantially to inflation during the disruption year and to cause substantial real losses. For a 10 mmbd disruption (the possible loss of Saudi Arabia), 6.4 percentage points are expected to be added to the inflation rate in the disruption year, and the net social cost in real terms is projected as $489 billion in 1980 dollars. An 18 mmbd disruption (the possible loss of the Persian Gulf) is expected to lead to an 8 percent drop in real GNP in the year of the disruption, to add 14 percent to the inflation rate and 6.5 percent to the unemployment rate in the same year, and to incur a net loss of$1,010 billion in 1980 dollars.The two tariffs are found to lead to very similar results. The ad valorem tariff may hold a slight edge over the specific tariff by reducing transfer the real income to oil exporters during a disruption by slightly more than it increases the loss due to unemployment. Both tariffs are, however, clearly inferior to the alternative of no new policy because of the added losses and inefficiencies in normal periods.If all prices and wages were free to adjust instantaneously, so that full employment were maintained everywhere during a disruption, then the world oil market would be.much higher and the price increase more than three times as high. This effect of unemployment on oil prices provides an automatic stabilizer in the world market and is an important part of the explanation of the apparent resilience of the U.S. economy to large disturbances in the world oil market

Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

The energy price shock depressed real output by two percent in 1974 and by five percent in 1975, according to our results. Prices rose by four percent in 1974 and by another two percent in 1975. These conclusions are derived from an aggregate model of the U.S. economy with an explicit role of energy in production. The distinction between expected and unexpected shocks is an important part of the model. We also examine monetary and fiscal policies that might have offset the energy shock.

Why are prices so rigid?

Based in part on the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Economics, 1977

Cyclical variation in the productivity of labor

A revision of parts of the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Economics, 1977

Engagement in everyday activities among people living in Indian nursing homes: the association with person-centredness

Introduction: It has been reported that residents living in nursing homes are often inactive and lonely and are offered a limited number of activities. However, high engagement in activities has been reported to improve residents’ quality of life and engagement in personalized activities can even reduce agitation and enhance positive mood. Information regarding occupational patterns and purpose in life is well established in Western countries. However, we know next to nothing about how people living in Indian nursing homes spend their days. Objective: To explore the participation in everyday activities among older people in Indian nursing homes and the extent to which engagement in activities is associated with personcentred care. Methods: The study was conducted in 6 nursing homes in India, comprising 147 residents. In all, 23 nursing staff took part and completed a 26-item questionnaire about resident activities based on the Multi-Dimensional Dementia Assessment Scale and the Person- Directed Care Questionnaire. Person-centredness was measured with the Person-Centred Care Assessment Tool. Results: We found low participation in everyday activities among the residents. Participation in religious activities was the most frequent, whereas the least used activities were excursions, participating in cultural activities, taking part in educational programmes, visiting a restaurant and going to the cinema. A significant positive association was found between person-centred care and participation in religious activities, engagement in an activity programme and physical activity. Conclusions: The most frequently attended activity was religious activities. Person-centred care was associated with participation in religious activities, engagement in an activity programme, physical activity, spending time in the garden and playing and listening to music.publishedVersio

Utlånsforskriftens effekt på leiemarkedet Hvordan har særkravene i utlånsforskriften påvirket leieprisene i Oslo?

I denne masteroppgaven har vi undersøkt hvilken effekt særkravene for Oslo har hatt på leieprisene i hovedstaden, etter at utlånsforskriften ble revidert og strammet inn i 2017. Den reviderte utlånsforskriften inneholdt to særkrav som skulle gi økt finansiell stabilitet ved å heve kravet til egenkapitalandel for sekundærboligkjøp og begrense bankenes mulighet til å innvilge lån som ikke oppfyller visse vilkår. I lys av en pågående debatt om regulering av boligmarkedet gjennom utlånsforskriften tar denne oppgaven for seg et svært aktuelt tema. Debatten er i all hovedsak preget av hvordan boligpriser og gjeldsveksten har utviklet seg, men det er lite fokus på hvordan utlånsforskriften kan ha påvirket leieprisene i Oslo. Prisdannelsen i leiemarkedet og hvordan særkravene påvirker denne blir diskutert slik at effekten av særkravene kan analyseres. Videre benyttes difference-in-difference-estimering som metode for å analysere utviklingen i leiepriser i Oslo sammenlignet med Bergen og Trondheim mellom 2010 og 2022. Vi finner at det er en statistisk signifikant endring i både nivå og trend for leieprisene til leiligheter i ulik størrelse i Oslo sammenlignet med Bergen og Trondheim etter 2017. Basert på resultatene fra modellen konkluderer vi med at særkravene i Oslo har bidratt til høyere leiepriser. Dette kommer av at særkravene har ført til at færre investerer i sekundærboliger grunnet høyere egenkapitalkrav, at de som investerer krever høyere leiepris og at det er flere potensielle kjøpere som ikke får investert grunnet kravene. Leiemarkedet er komplekst, og samtidig som særkravene ble innført er det også andre effekter som kan ha bidratt til økningen. Vi diskuterer derfor om andre effekter kan ha påvirket leieprisene særskilt i Oslo i den samme perioden. Den eneste effekten som tydelig endrer seg fra årene før 2017 er innføringen av eiendomsskatt. Denne effekten drar i samme retning som særkravene, men vi argumenterer for at den ikke har påvirket leieprisene nevneverdig. Derfor argumenterer vi for at innføringen av særkravene er den viktigste faktoren til at leieprisene har økt mer i Oslo. Regjeringen har nylig evaluert utlånsforskriften og valgte 9. desember å fjerne egenkapitalkravet fordi det kan ha hatt «utilsiktede konsekvenser».nhhma