Spatial Autocorrelation Models for Galton's Problem

The effects of Galton's problem are discussed within a framework provided by the linear regression model. We examine five illustrative diffusion models and evaluate alternative estimation procedures (es pecially Naroll's linked pairs test and Wirsing's second order partial correlation). While no one procedure is adequate for all models, the specification of a diffusion model provides guidance in the selection of an appropriate estimation procedure.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68209/2/10.1177_106939718101600106.pd

Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91910/1/Kmenta-Criteria_Evaluation_Econometric_Models.pd

The effects of crude oil price volatility, stock price, exchange rate and interest rate on Malaysia’s economic growth

This study examines the effects and relationships between Malaysia’s economic growth and selected variables which are oil price volatility, stock price, real exchange rate and real interest rate. Using time-series data methodology, the study employs unit root test using Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP), Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model supplemented by Bounds F-Testing, Johansen-Julius Co-integration test and Granger causality test. The long�run equation derived from ARDL shows that there are positive relationships for stock price and real exchange rate whilst there are negative relationships between oil price volatility and real interest rate. Furthermore, Granger causality test shows that only stock price and real interest rates have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run. Finally, sound policy recommendations are suggested, in particular, to address oil price volatility in a forward looking manner as well as monetary-friendly measures to further support Malaysia’s economic growth

Stochastic flowering phenology in Dactylis Glomerata populations described by Markov chain modelling

Understanding the relationship between flowering patterns and pollen dispersal is important in climate change modelling, pollen forecasting, forestry and agriculture. Enhanced understanding of this connection can be gained through detailed spatial and temporal flowering observations on a population level, combined with modelling simulating the dynamics. Species with large distribution ranges, long flowering seasons, high pollen production and naturally large populations can be used to illustrate these dynamics. Revealing and simulating species-specific demographic and stochastic elements in the flowering process will likely be important in determining when pollen release is likely to happen in flowering plants. Spatial and temporal dynamics of eight populations of Dactylis glomerata were collected over the course of two years to determine high-resolution demographic elements. Stochastic elements were accounted for using Markov Chain approaches in order to evaluate tiller-specific contribution to overall population dynamics. Tiller-specific developmental dynamics were evaluated using three different RV matrix correlation coefficients. We found that the demographic patterns in population development were the same for all populations with key phenological events differing only by a few days over the course of the seasons. Many tillers transitioned very quickly from non-flowering to full flowering, a process that can be replicated with Markov Chain modelling. Our novel approach demonstrates the identification and quantification of stochastic elements in the flowering process of D. glomerata, an element likely to be found in many flowering plants. The stochastic modelling approach can be used to develop detailed pollen release models for Dactylis, other grass species and probably other flowering plants

Dynamics of new party formation in the Czech Republic 1996–2010: looking for the origins of a ‘political earthquake’

The stable and closed nature of the Czech party system and the failure of most new political parties have been among the most salient features of Czech democracy over the past two decades. The results of the 2010 parliamentary elections seemed to mark a break with this pattern: support for two main parties slumped to historically low levels and two new parties, TOP09 and Public Affairs (VV), entered parliament. This article seeks to put the ‘political earthquake’ of 2010 into perspective by mapping the development of new parties in the Czech Republic from the mid-1990s and relating them to comparative literature and typologies of new party emergence. It concludes that of the two successful new parties in 2010, Public Affairs was, by far, the more novel and important phenomenon