EXPLICIT: a feasibility study of remote expert elicitation in health technology assessment

This is the final version of the article. Available from BioMed Central via the DOI in this recordBACKGROUND: Expert opinion is often sought to complement available information needed to inform model-based economic evaluations in health technology assessments. In this context, we define expert elicitation as the process of encoding expert opinion on a quantity of interest, together with associated uncertainty, as a probability distribution. When availability for face-to-face expert elicitation with a facilitator is limited, elicitation can be conducted remotely, overcoming challenges of finding an appropriate time to meet the expert and allowing access to experts situated too far away for practical face-to-face sessions. However, distance elicitation is associated with reduced response rates and limited assistance for the expert during the elicitation session. The aim of this study was to inform the development of a remote elicitation tool by exploring the influence of mode of elicitation on elicited beliefs. METHODS: An Excel-based tool (EXPLICIT) was developed to assist the elicitation session, including the preparation of the expert and recording of their responses. General practitioners (GPs) were invited to provide expert opinion about population alcohol consumption behaviours. They were randomised to complete the elicitation by either a face-to-face meeting or email. EXPLICIT was used in the elicitation sessions for both arms. RESULTS: Fifteen GPs completed the elicitation session. Those conducted by email were longer than the face-to-face sessions (13 min 30 s vs 10 min 26 s, p = 0.1) and the email-elicited estimates contained less uncertainty. However, the resulting aggregated distributions were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: EXPLICIT was useful in both facilitating the elicitation task and in obtaining expert opinion from experts via email. The findings support the opinion that remote, self-administered elicitation is a viable approach within the constraints of HTA to inform policy making, although poor response rates may be observed and additional time for individual sessions may be required.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula

Crystal Structure of HIV-1 gp41 Including Both Fusion Peptide and Membrane Proximal External Regions

The HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) composed of the receptor binding domain gp120 and the fusion protein subunit gp41 catalyzes virus entry and is a major target for therapeutic intervention and for neutralizing antibodies. Env interactions with cellular receptors trigger refolding of gp41, which induces close apposition of viral and cellular membranes leading to membrane fusion. The energy released during refolding is used to overcome the kinetic barrier and drives the fusion reaction. Here, we report the crystal structure at 2 Å resolution of the complete extracellular domain of gp41 lacking the fusion peptide and the cystein-linked loop. Both the fusion peptide proximal region (FPPR) and the membrane proximal external region (MPER) form helical extensions from the gp41 six-helical bundle core structure. The lack of regular coiled-coil interactions within FPPR and MPER splay this end of the structure apart while positioning the fusion peptide towards the outside of the six-helical bundle and exposing conserved hydrophobic MPER residues. Unexpectedly, the section of the MPER, which is juxtaposed to the transmembrane region (TMR), bends in a 90°-angle sideward positioning three aromatic side chains per monomer for membrane insertion. We calculate that this structural motif might facilitate the generation of membrane curvature on the viral membrane. The presence of FPPR and MPER increases the melting temperature of gp41 significantly in comparison to the core structure of gp41. Thus, our data indicate that the ordered assembly of FPPR and MPER beyond the core contributes energy to the membrane fusion reaction. Furthermore, we provide the first structural evidence that part of MPER will be membrane inserted within trimeric gp41. We propose that this framework has important implications for membrane bending on the viral membrane, which is required for fusion and could provide a platform for epitope and lipid bilayer recognition for broadly neutralizing gp41 antibodies

Mechanism of Inhibition of Enveloped Virus Membrane Fusion by the Antiviral Drug Arbidol

The broad-spectrum antiviral arbidol (Arb) inhibits cell entry of enveloped viruses by blocking viral fusion with host cell membrane. To better understand Arb mechanism of action, we investigated its interactions with phospholipids and membrane peptides. We demonstrate that Arb associates with phospholipids in the micromolar range. NMR reveals that Arb interacts with the polar head-group of phospholipid at the membrane interface. Fluorescence studies of interactions between Arb and either tryptophan derivatives or membrane peptides reconstituted into liposomes show that Arb interacts with tryptophan in the micromolar range. Interestingly, apparent binding affinities between lipids and tryptophan residues are comparable with those of Arb IC50 of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) membrane fusion. Since tryptophan residues of membrane proteins are known to bind preferentially at the membrane interface, these data suggest that Arb could increase the strength of virus glycoprotein's interactions with the membrane, due to a dual binding mode involving aromatic residues and phospholipids. The resulting complexation would inhibit the expected viral glycoprotein conformational changes required during the fusion process. Our findings pave the way towards the design of new drugs exhibiting Arb-like interfacial membrane binding properties to inhibit early steps of virus entry, i.e., attractive targets to combat viral infection

Evolutionary Modeling of Rate Shifts Reveals Specificity Determinants in HIV-1 Subtypes

A hallmark of the human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) is its rapid rate of evolution within and among its various subtypes. Two complementary hypotheses are suggested to explain the sequence variability among HIV-1 subtypes. The first suggests that the functional constraints at each site remain the same across all subtypes, and the differences among subtypes are a direct reflection of random substitutions, which have occurred during the time elapsed since their divergence. The alternative hypothesis suggests that the functional constraints themselves have evolved, and thus sequence differences among subtypes in some sites reflect shifts in function. To determine the contribution of each of these two alternatives to HIV-1 subtype evolution, we have developed a novel Bayesian method for testing and detecting site-specific rate shifts. The RAte Shift EstimatoR (RASER) method determines whether or not site-specific functional shifts characterize the evolution of a protein and, if so, points to the specific sites and lineages in which these shifts have most likely occurred. Applying RASER to a dataset composed of large samples of HIV-1 sequences from different group M subtypes, we reveal rampant evolutionary shifts throughout the HIV-1 proteome. Most of these rate shifts have occurred during the divergence of the major subtypes, establishing that subtype divergence occurred together with functional diversification. We report further evidence for the emergence of a new sub-subtype, characterized by abundant rate-shifting sites. When focusing on the rate-shifting sites detected, we find that many are associated with known function relating to viral life cycle and drug resistance. Finally, we discuss mechanisms of covariation of rate-shifting sites

Rating Inflation versus Deflation: On Procyclical Credit Ratings

Credit rating agencies play a crucial role in financial markets. There are two competing views regarding their behavior: some argue that they engage in rating inflation, while others suggest that they deflate ratings. This article offers a rationale that reconciles the two opposite arguments. We find that both rating inflation and rating deflation can occur in equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that credit rating is procyclical: rating inflation is more likely to happen in a boom while rating deflation is more likely to happen in a recession

Recurrent Signature Patterns in HIV-1 B Clade Envelope Glycoproteins Associated with either Early or Chronic Infections

Here we have identified HIV-1 B clade Envelope (Env) amino acid signatures from early in infection that may be favored at transmission, as well as patterns of recurrent mutation in chronic infection that may reflect common pathways of immune evasion. To accomplish this, we compared thousands of sequences derived by single genome amplification from several hundred individuals that were sampled either early in infection or were chronically infected. Samples were divided at the outset into hypothesis-forming and validation sets, and we used phylogenetically corrected statistical strategies to identify signatures, systematically scanning all of Env. Signatures included single amino acids, glycosylation motifs, and multi-site patterns based on functional or structural groupings of amino acids. We identified signatures near the CCR5 co-receptor-binding region, near the CD4 binding site, and in the signal peptide and cytoplasmic domain, which may influence Env expression and processing. Two signatures patterns associated with transmission were particularly interesting. The first was the most statistically robust signature, located in position 12 in the signal peptide. The second was the loss of an N-linked glycosylation site at positions 413–415; the presence of this site has been recently found to be associated with escape from potent and broad neutralizing antibodies, consistent with enabling a common pathway for immune escape during chronic infection. Its recurrent loss in early infection suggests it may impact fitness at the time of transmission or during early viral expansion. The signature patterns we identified implicate Env expression levels in selection at viral transmission or in early expansion, and suggest that immune evasion patterns that recur in many individuals during chronic infection when antibodies are present can be selected against when the infection is being established prior to the adaptive immune response

Direct percutaneous transaortic approach for treatment of aortic pseudoaneurysms

Aortic pseudoaneurysms (APAs) can develop months or years after aortic and cardiac surgery. If not treated appropriately, APAs can lead to fatal complications and ultimately death. We describe a case of a 61-year old patient with a diagnosed large pseudoaneurysm 5 years after his aortic valve surgery, who was treated with a novel transcatheter direct transaortic approach. The patient had dilated cardiomyopathy with an APA adjacent to the lower sternal plate. An Amplatzer septal occlusion device followed by coils was delivered transcutaneously through the APA to close its neck and fill the false aneurysm, respectively. Triple fusion multimodality imaging was used to guide the placement of the occlusion devices. The merging of computed tomography (CT) and echocardiography with real-time fluoroscopy was fundamental in procedural planning and guidance. Post-procedural transoesophageal echocardiogram (TOE) and CT angiography showed complete exclusion of the APA. A direct transaortic approach is a valid option for closure of an APA if the surgical risk is prohibitive, and the use of triple fusion technology is an essential tool in the hands of interventionalists and surgeons for preoperative planning and conduction of these procedures