Mathematical Approach to Developing a Simulation Model of a Health Care System

This paper describes some needs and methods of health care modeling. It contains a general approach and the first version of a mathematical description of the processes within a health care system. Definitions of terms used in the paper are also given. Some mathematical tasks, specific for the practice of health care management, are set

Aggregate Model for Estimating Health Care System Resource Requirements (AMER)

In the process of national health care system model elaboration, the model for estimating resource requirements plays an important role. Resource needs are determined on the basis of estimates of population trends and morbidity rates, and a set of desired health care standards. For the creation of the morbidity estimation model, data from comprehensive studies carried out in the UK, Japan, and the USSR were used. The desired standards were taken from the practice of central planning now existing in the USSR. Using this model in an interactive regime, it is possible to test alternative planning strategies. Preliminary results of testing and running this model in various countries show that this computer model could be used in different developed countries for estimating resource requirements

Health Care System Models: a Review

In this paper, thirty-eight models of the Health Care System are described in a standardized way. Their main goals, methods, and special features are identified. Three illustrative examples of different methodologies are given in detail. To clarify the use of models for application in the health care planning process, policy problems in health care are summarized. The different stages in creating a model are described

On the Estimation of Morbidity

A mathematical model of a degenerative type disease is discussed in this paper. The model allows the user to estimate the number of new morbidity episodes and the prevalence of the disease, provided data on population age structure and age specific deaths are available. To verify the model some experiments with its computer version were carried out. The computer program listing and results of the experiments are presented

A Computer Method for Projecting a Population Sex-Age Structure

A computer model which gives an opportunity to predict dynamics of the population sex-age structure is presented in this paper. The system's behavior described depends on such demographic characteristics as birth rate, death rate, and others. The given model is supposed to be used as part of a general health care system's activity model. In that case it will be possible to investigate the sex-age structure dynamics in connection with the influence of external social-economic subsystems and policy in the health care system area. The USA demographic statistic data for 1968 have been used for the model's tests, and satisfactory results have been achieved during these tests

An Approach to Building a Universal Health Care Model: Morbidity Model of Degenerative Diseases

There have been many different approaches to building health care models. Because of these differences, it is sometimes difficult to relate the developed models to each other. We have therefore first defined the submodels of the health care system and clarified the relation of our approach to studies already undertaken. The submodels also show the steps in building the health care model. The first step was to construct the morbidity model of degenerative diseases. The validity of the model was tested for various countries, using statistics from the World Health Organization. The fit of the model to empirical data was satisfactory. The model was applied to an international comparison and estimation of trends in degenerative diseases. The study showed the feasibility of this type of approach in health planning

Phase Behavior of Aqueous Na-K-Mg-Ca-CI-NO3 Mixtures: Isopiestic Measurements and Thermodynamic Modeling

A comprehensive model has been established for calculating thermodynamic properties of multicomponent aqueous systems containing the Na{sup +}, K{sup +}, Mg{sup 2+}, Ca{sup 2+}, Cl{sup -}, and NO{sub 3}{sup -} ions. The thermodynamic framework is based on a previously developed model for mixed-solvent electrolyte solutions. The framework has been designed to reproduce the properties of salt solutions at temperatures ranging from the freezing point to 300 C and concentrations ranging from infinite dilution to the fused salt limit. The model has been parameterized using a combination of an extensive literature database and new isopiestic measurements for thirteen salt mixtures at 140 C. The measurements have been performed using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) previously designed gravimetric isopiestic apparatus, which makes it possible to detect solid phase precipitation. Water activities are reported for mixtures with a fixed ratio of salts as a function of the total apparent salt mole fraction. The isopiestic measurements reported here simultaneously reflect two fundamental properties of the system, i.e., the activity of water as a function of solution concentration and the occurrence of solid-liquid transitions. The thermodynamic model accurately reproduces the new isopiestic data as well as literature data for binary, ternary and higher-order subsystems. Because of its high accuracy in calculating vapor-liquid and solid-liquid equilibria, the model is suitable for studying deliquescence behavior of multicomponent salt systems