nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance

In December 1992, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) adopted a life-health insurer risk-based capital (RBC) formula and model law that became effective with the 1993 annual statement filed in March 1994. In principle, well-designed RBC requirements can help achieve an efficient reduction in the expected costs of insolvencies. They can provide incentives for insurers to operate safely in cases where market incentives are weak due to government mandated guarantees of insurer obligations or asymmetries regarding solvency between insurers and buyers. RBC requirements also may facilitate or encourage prompt corrective action by solvency regulators by helping regulators to identify weak insurers and giving regulators legal authority to intervene when capital falls below specified levels. RBC requirements may force regulators to act in amore timely manner when confronted with external pressure to delay action. However, RBC capital requirements have a number ofpotential limitations. Unavoidable imperfections in any meaningful RBC system will likely distort some insurer decisions in undesirable and unintended ways. RBC requirements by themselves will do little or nothing to help regulators determine when an insurer s reported capital (surplus) is overstated due to understatement of liabilities or overstatement of assets. A well-designed RBC system should minimize costs associated with misclassification of insurers. The system should be able to identify a high proportion of troubled companies early enough to permit regulators to take prompt corrective action and should identify as troubled only a minimal proportion of financially sound insurers. This study analyzes data on solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers to determine whether modifications in the NAIC s RBC formula can improve its ability to predict firms that subsequently fail without substantially increasing the proportion of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail. It uses logistic regression models to investigate whether changes in the weight for the major components in the RBC formula and incorporation of information on company size and organizational form improve the tradeoff between Type I error rates (the percentage of insurers that later failed that are incorrectly predicted not to fail) and the Type II error rates (the percentage of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail). The data analyzed were for 1989-91 for firms that subsequently failed and for firms that survived through the first nine months of 1993. The authors make four main conclusions. First, less than half of the companies that later failed had RBC ratios within the proposed ranges for regulatory and company action. Second, total and component RBC ratios generally are significantly different for failed and surviving firms based on univariate tests. Third, estimation of multiple logistic regression models of insolvency risk indicated that allowing the weights of the RBC component to vary and including firm size and organizational form variables generally produce a material improvement in the tradeoff between sample Type I and Type II error rates. And, fourth,the RBC models are noticeably less successful in predicting large firm insolvencies than in predicting smaller insolvencies. Regarding the estimated weights in the logistic regression models, a major conclusion is the reserve component of the NAIC risk-based capital formula, which accounts for half of industry risk-based capital, has virtually no predictive power in any of the tests conducted. Given the high costs associated with large failures and the inferior performance of the models in predicting large insolvencies, a higher payoff in terms of reduced insolvency costs is likely to be achieved by developing models that perform better for large firms.

Predicting functionally important SNP classes based on negative selection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With the advent of cost-effective genotyping technologies, genome-wide association studies allow researchers to examine hundreds of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for association with human disease. Recently, many researchers applying this strategy have detected strong associations to disease with SNP markers that are either not in linkage disequilibrium with any nonsynonymous SNP or large distances from any annotated gene. In such cases, no well-established standard practice for effective SNP selection for follow-up studies exists. We aim to identify and prioritize groups of SNPs that are more likely to affect phenotypes in order to facilitate efficient SNP selection for follow-up studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on the annotations available in the Ensembl database, we categorized SNPs in the human genome into classes related to regulatory attributes, such as epigenetic modifications and transcription factor binding sites, in addition to classes related to gene structure and cross-species conservation. Using the distribution of derived allele frequencies (DAF) within each class, we assessed the strength of natural selection for each class relative to the genome as a whole. We applied this DAF analysis to Perlegen resequenced SNPs genome-wide. Regulatory elements annotated by Ensembl such as specific histone methylation sites as well as classes defined by cross-species conservation showed negative selection in comparison to the genome as a whole.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results highlight which annotated classes are under purifying selection, have putative functional importance, and contain SNPs that are strong candidates for follow-up studies after genome-wide association. Such SNP annotation may also be useful in interpreting results of whole-genome sequencing studies.</p

RSEARCH: Finding homologs of single structured RNA sequences

BACKGROUND: For many RNA molecules, secondary structure rather than primary sequence is the evolutionarily conserved feature. No programs have yet been published that allow searching a sequence database for homologs of a single RNA molecule on the basis of secondary structure. RESULTS: We have developed a program, RSEARCH, that takes a single RNA sequence with its secondary structure and utilizes a local alignment algorithm to search a database for homologous RNAs. For this purpose, we have developed a series of base pair and single nucleotide substitution matrices for RNA sequences called RIBOSUM matrices. RSEARCH reports the statistical confidence for each hit as well as the structural alignment of the hit. We show several examples in which RSEARCH outperforms the primary sequence search programs BLAST and SSEARCH. The primary drawback of the program is that it is slow. The C code for RSEARCH is freely available from our lab's website. CONCLUSION: RSEARCH outperforms primary sequence programs in finding homologs of structured RNA sequences

A Structured Framework and Resources to Use to Get Your Medical Education Work Published.

IntroductionMedical educators often have great ideas for medical education scholarship but have difficulty converting their educational abstract or project into a published manuscript.MethodsDuring this workshop, participants addressed common challenges in developing an educational manuscript. In small-group case scenarios, participants discovered the importance of the "So what?" in making the case for their project. Incorporating conceptual frameworks, participants chose appropriate outcome metrics, discussed how to frame the discussion section, and ensured appropriate journal fit. After each small-group exercise, large-group discussions allowed the small groups to report back so that facilitators could highlight and reinforce key learning points. At the conclusion of the workshop, participants left with a checklist for creating an educational manuscript and an additional resources document to assist them in avoiding common pitfalls when turning their educational abstract/project into a publishable manuscript.ResultsThis workshop was presented in 2016 and 2017. Presenter evaluations were completed by 33 participants; 11 completed conference evaluations. The mean overall rating on presenter evaluations was 4.55 out of 5, while the conference evaluations mean was 3.73 out of 4. Comments provided on both evaluation tools highlighted the perceived effectiveness of the delivery and content. More than 50% of respondents stated that they planned to incorporate the use of conceptual frameworks in future work.DiscussionThis workshop helped participants address common challenges by providing opportunities for hands-on practice as well as tips and resources for use when submitting a medical education manuscript for publication

On the Transfer of Metric Fluctuations when Extra Dimensions Bounce or Stabilize

In this report, we study within the context of general relativity with one extra dimension compactified either on a circle or an orbifold, how radion fluctuations interact with metric fluctuations in the three non-compact directions. The background is non-singular and can either describe an extra dimension on its way to stabilization, or immediately before and after a series of non-singular bounces. We find that the metric fluctuations transfer undisturbed through the bounces or through the transients of the pre-stabilization epoch. Our background is obtained by considering the effects of a gas of massless string modes in the context of a consistent 'massless background' (or low energy effective theory) limit of string theory. We discuss applications to various approaches to early universe cosmology, including the ekpyrotic/cyclic universe scenario and string gas cosmology.Comment: V2. Minor Clarifications V3. appendix and 2 figures added, typos corrected, conclusions unchanged 12 pages, 6 figure

Coordination of protein and mRNA abundances of stromal enzymes and mRNA abundances of the Clp protease subunits during senescence of Phaseolus vulgaris (L.) leaves

Our objective was to determine the coordination of transcript and/or protein abundances of stromal enzymes during leaf senescence. First trifolioliate leaves of Phaseolus vulgaris L. plants were sampled beginning at the time of full leaf expansion; at this same time, half of the plants were switched to a nutrient solution lacking N. Total RNA and soluble protein abundances decreased after full leaf expansion whereas chlorophyll abundance remained constant; N stress enhanced the decline in these traits. Abundances of ribulose-1,5-bisposphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco; EC 4.1.1.39), Rubisco activase and phosphoribulokinase (Ru5P kinase; EC 2.7.1.19) decreased after full leaf expansion in a coordinated manner for both treatments. In contrast, adenosine diphosphate glucose (ADPGlc) pyrophosphorylase (EC 2.7.7.27) abundance was relatively constant during natural senescence but did decline similar to the other enzymes under N stress. Northern analyses indicated that transcript abundances for all enzymes declined markedly on a fresh-weight basis just after full leaf expansion. This rapid decline was particularly strong for the Rubisco small subunit (rbcS) transcript. The decline was enhanced by N stress for rbcS and Rubisco activase (rca), but not for Ru5P kinase (prk) and ADPGlc pyrophosphorylase (agp). Transcripts of the Clp protease subunits clpC and clpP declined in abundance just after full leaf expansion, similar to the other mRNA species. When Northern blots were analyzed using equal RNA loads, rbcS transcripts still declined markedly just after full leaf expansion whereas rca and clpC transcripts increased over time. The results indicated that senescence was initiated near the time of full leaf expansion, was accelerated by N stress, and was characterized by large decline in transcripts of stromal enzymes. The decreased mRNA abundances were in general associated with steadily declining stromal protein abundances, with ADPGlc pyrophosphorylase being the notable exception. Transcript analyses for the Clp subunits supported a recent report (Shanklin et al., 1995, Plant Cell 7: 1713--1722) indicating that the Clp protease subunits were constitutive throughout development and suggested that ClpC and ClpP do not function as a senescence-specific proteolytic system in Phaseolus

G91-1009 Getting Started in Ecofarming: Growing the Winter Wheat Crop

Cultural practices can improve the weed competitiveness of winter wheat in an ecofallow program, thus increasing the effectiveness of herbicides. Ecofarming is a popular conservation tillage practice used in Nebraska areas where winter wheat is produced. It requires a high degree of management, but the rewards through higher crop yields and erosion protection are worth the effort. In Nebraska the winter wheat-fallow rotation is the common rotation used in areas of less than 17 inches of rainfall, while in areas that receive 17 to 22 inches the winter wheat-corn or sorghum fallow rotation is most common. In 1988, 41 percent of the available wheat stubble fields in west central and southwest Nebraska and 11 percent in the Panhandle were sprayed with a herbicide after wheat harvest. In 1986 a field survey was taken one to two months after herbicides were applied after winter wheat harvest. Results indicated that many cultural practices greatly influenced weed control in the winter wheat stubble. The purpose of this NebGuide is to explain how some of these cultural practices can be used by farmers to improve the weed competitiveness of their winter wheat. Hence, when herbicides are used their effectiveness is increased