Influence of Canopy Disturbances on Runoff and Landslide Disposition after Heavy Rainfall Events

As protective forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from hydrogeomorphic processes such as sediment transport processes or debris flows. In this context, future scenarios of climate-related canopy disturbances and their influence on the protective effect remain, however, an unsolved problem. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand, an ensemble of forest landscape simulations was carried out and the effects of future changes in natural disturbance regimes were evaluated. To determine peak runoff, hydrological simulations have been conducted, using the conceptual hydrological model ZEMOKOST as well as the deterministic model GEOtop. Effects of forest disturbances on hillslope stability were investigated, based on a modified Coulomb landslide model. Our results suggest no influence of the disturbance regime on the runoff. The climate-related increase in the frequency of disturbances is not reflected in increased runoff during the period under consideration. Contrary, slope stability analyses indicate that the availability of shallow landslides in steep forested torrent catchments might be decreased by the occurrence of disturbances – especially for a warm and dry climate projection. Canopy disturbances seem to accelerate the adaptation of tree species to future climate conditions, which is likely to be accompanied by a change in root systems away from flat roots that currently predominate in torrential catchments. In terms of managing the protective effect of forests against shallow landslides, such natural disturbances can thus be considered as positive interventions in the existing forest ecosystem by promoting natural succession