Contractual Form and Performance in the Norwegian Bus Industry 1986-96

The Norwegian public transport market has experienced a significant development over the last decade. Over this period the number of independent companies have declined from 220 to 83, the two largest groups have through mergers and buy outs achieved control over more than 40% of the market. The regulating regime has changes from net cost contracts based on historical concessions through negotiated contracts based on normalised costs and efficiency agreements to tendered contracts in some counties, so far based on full cost. During the same period the operating unit cost has declined by approx. 20%, the subsidy rate by approx. 1/3 from 37% to 24%, and production has grown slightly. To test hypothesises about factors affecting the cost level at company and county level we have collected accounting and production data for all the companies for the period 1986-96 Statistics Norway. This pooled time series cross section data set is used to estimate the effect of contractual form, economy of scale and scope, subsidy level on cost pr vehicle km, controlling for factors as passenger density, route speed and urban area. The same data and variables are applied to test hypothesises of market efficiency measured by cost pr passenger km.Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies. Faculty of Economics and Business. The University of Sydne

A stock-flow cohort model of the national car fleet

Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. The incentives operate primarily—or exclusively—on the newest generation of cars. But how fast will technological developments affecting new vehicle models penetrate into the car fleet? The speed at which the adverse effects of private car use will be mitigated through the normal vehicle renewal process, or through an accelerated one, carries considerable interest. Suitable modelling tools are needed. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of a bottom-up stock-flow modelling approach to private car fleet forecasting and policy analysis. Methods In the BIG model of the Norwegian automobile fleet, the annual stocks and flows characterising the car fleet are specified as matrices of 682 mutually exclusive and exhaustive cells, formed by cross-tabulations between 22 vehicle segments and 31 age classes. New car registrations follow from a disaggregate generic discrete choice model based on two decades of complete sales data for individual passenger car models. Results Example projections are presented onto the 2050 horizon under a low carbon fiscal policy scenario as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The fiscal policy is seen to make a large difference in terms of long term fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Conclusions Stock-flow cohort modelling of the automobile fleet is a powerful and handy tool for policy analysis. Even quite simple and straightforward accounting relations may provide important insights into the dynamics of fleet development. It is possible to incorporate, into the stock-flow modelling framework, interesting and useful behavioural relations, explaining aggregate automobile ownership and travel demand, scrapping and survival rates, or consumer choice in the market for new cars

A stock-flow cohort model of the national car fleet

Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. The incentives operate primarily—or exclusively—on the newest generation of cars. But how fast will technological developments affecting new vehicle models penetrate into the car fleet? The speed at which the adverse effects of private car use will be mitigated through the normal vehicle renewal process, or through an accelerated one, carries considerable interest. Suitable modelling tools are needed. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of a bottom-up stock-flow modelling approach to private car fleet forecasting and policy analysis. Methods In the BIG model of the Norwegian automobile fleet, the annual stocks and flows characterising the car fleet are specified as matrices of 682 mutually exclusive and exhaustive cells, formed by cross-tabulations between 22 vehicle segments and 31 age classes. New car registrations follow from a disaggregate generic discrete choice model based on two decades of complete sales data for individual passenger car models. Results Example projections are presented onto the 2050 horizon under a low carbon fiscal policy scenario as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The fiscal policy is seen to make a large difference in terms of long term fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Conclusions Stock-flow cohort modelling of the automobile fleet is a powerful and handy tool for policy analysis. Even quite simple and straightforward accounting relations may provide important insights into the dynamics of fleet development. It is possible to incorporate, into the stock-flow modelling framework, interesting and useful behavioural relations, explaining aggregate automobile ownership and travel demand, scrapping and survival rates, or consumer choice in the market for new cars.publishedVersio

Høyhastighetstog i Sverige. Beregningsverktøy og resultater: En vurdering av transport- og samfunnsøkonomiske analyser

We have considered two relevant modeling tools for transport calculations and cost-benefit analysis of new lines for high speed trains between Stockholm and Gothenburg and Malmö, respectively. Sampers is liable to calculate the long-term consequences on the transport demand and the geographic distribution of this by changes in the population's composition, size and location, economic development, and transportation system's development. Samvips allows for more detailed and realistic modeling of public transport supply and thus the demand for traveling with the various lines, but lack calculations of the overall transport demand and how supply impacts total demand. Samvips will be a better suited tool to study options for the market's request for development as result of the investment. Sampers can then be used to generate overall transport demand to Samvips. The cost-benefit calculation show strong unprofitability for the project. It gives significant benefits for transportation users, operators and third party. The investment cost is considered realistic, but more than twice as large as the benefit. Supplementary analysis, sensitivity analyses and our reviews do not indicate that the project is socio-economic profitable.Oberoende granskning av analyser för höghastighetsbanor i Sverig

Kvalitetssikring av MetroBuss planen i Bergen

Notatet vurderer det forslaget til alternativ kollektivtransportløsning for del av Bergen som Gaia Trafikk AS har fremmet. Konklusjonen er at Gaias forslag etablerer et tilnærmet likeverdig tilbud med vesentlig lavere årlige kostnader. "Tenk bane - kjør buss" kan være ledetråd for videre kostnadseffektiv utvikling av kollektivtransporten i Bergen

Troublesome trade-offs: balancing urban activities and values when securing a city-centre governmental quarter.

Background Homeland security measures increasingly affect urban life and activities. Standoff distance, which prevents unscreened vehicles from approaching within a certain distance of a building, is a widely applied measure when protecting buildings against attacks with vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. This measure both is rather inexpensive and has few negative externalities when implemented in rural areas. Unfortunately, sites with protection needs often are situated in city centres. Methods We apply the so-called Security Function Framework to illuminate the externalities or the ‘troublesome trade-offs’ between protecting a high-value site against vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices and protecting other urban values. Results This paper demonstrates that standoff creates challenges for other important values, such as functional office spaces for all employees, deliveries and emergency vehicle access. Simultaneously, standoff creates opportunities for reinforcing social-responsibility requirements, such as accessibility for pedestrians and environmental considerations. Conclusions Security measures can have both negative and positive externalities and planning might alleviate some of the negative ones.publishedVersio

A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

Purpose The introduction of novel fuel and propulsion technologies, such as battery, (plug-in) hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles, and the need to combat the exhaust emission of local and global pollutants from the passenger car fleet have enhanced the political interest in the vehicle purchase choices made by private households and firms, and in how these choices can be influenced through fiscal and regulatory penalties and incentives. Methods As a tool to understand and analyse such questions, we have developed a generic nested logit model of automobile choice, based on complete disaggregate vehicle sales data for Norway for the period ranging from January 1996 until July 2011. The data set contains 1.6 million vehicle transactions. Results Being sensitive to changes in the vehicle purchase tax and the fuel tax, the model discriminates well between various fiscal policy scenarios. In using the model for such purposes, one is greatly helped by the fact that the model distinguishes between price changes due to taxation and those originating from the manufacturing or marketing side. Conclusions The strongly CO2 graduated vehicle purchase tax, with exemptions granted for battery electric vehicles, is shown to have a major impact on the average type approval rate of CO2 emissions from new passenger cars registered in Norway. The fuel tax also helps induce car customers to buy low emission vehicles.publishedVersio

A stock-flow cohort model of the national car fleet

Purpose Various regulatory and fiscal policy instruments are in force to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases and local pollutants emitted by private cars. The incentives operate primarily—or exclusively—on the newest generation of cars. But how fast will technological developments affecting new vehicle models penetrate into the car fleet? The speed at which the adverse effects of private car use will be mitigated through the normal vehicle renewal process, or through an accelerated one, carries considerable interest. Suitable modelling tools are needed. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of a bottom-up stock-flow modelling approach to private car fleet forecasting and policy analysis. Methods In the BIG model of the Norwegian automobile fleet, the annual stocks and flows characterising the car fleet are specified as matrices of 682 mutually exclusive and exhaustive cells, formed by cross-tabulations between 22 vehicle segments and 31 age classes. New car registrations follow from a disaggregate generic discrete choice model based on two decades of complete sales data for individual passenger car models. Results Example projections are presented onto the 2050 horizon under a low carbon fiscal policy scenario as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The fiscal policy is seen to make a large difference in terms of long term fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Conclusions Stock-flow cohort modelling of the automobile fleet is a powerful and handy tool for policy analysis. Even quite simple and straightforward accounting relations may provide important insights into the dynamics of fleet development. It is possible to incorporate, into the stock-flow modelling framework, interesting and useful behavioural relations, explaining aggregate automobile ownership and travel demand, scrapping and survival rates, or consumer choice in the market for new cars

Troublesome trade-offs: balancing urban activities and values when securing a city-centre governmental quarter.

Background Homeland security measures increasingly affect urban life and activities. Standoff distance, which prevents unscreened vehicles from approaching within a certain distance of a building, is a widely applied measure when protecting buildings against attacks with vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. This measure both is rather inexpensive and has few negative externalities when implemented in rural areas. Unfortunately, sites with protection needs often are situated in city centres. Methods We apply the so-called Security Function Framework to illuminate the externalities or the ‘troublesome trade-offs’ between protecting a high-value site against vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices and protecting other urban values. Results This paper demonstrates that standoff creates challenges for other important values, such as functional office spaces for all employees, deliveries and emergency vehicle access. Simultaneously, standoff creates opportunities for reinforcing social-responsibility requirements, such as accessibility for pedestrians and environmental considerations. Conclusions Security measures can have both negative and positive externalities and planning might alleviate some of the negative ones

Towards achievement of both Allocative Efficiency and X-Efficiency in Public Transport

Counties are responsible for local public transport in Norway. The prevalent form of organisation is that private companies operate on net-cost contracts for the counties. The county authorities determine both the fares and the level of service. Competitive tendering is permitted and the threat of tendering has contributed to increased X-efficiency in the bus industry. The main problem at present is the lack of incentives for market, or allocative efficiency. A new type of contract has recently been introduced in Norway. It allows operators greater freedom in the design of services, and a remuneration scheme is linked to the level of service provided. It is intended that this remuneration to operators will internalise the social benefits from an improved level of service since only a small fraction of these benefits is captured by increased fare revenue. By proper design of the remuneration scheme, the level of service provided by private operators who maximise profit will approximate the social optimum. © The London School of Economics and the University of Bath 2001