Head-mounted Sensory Augmentation Device: Comparing Haptic and Audio Modality

This paper investigates and compares the effectiveness of haptic and audio modality for navigation in low visibility environment using a sensory augmentation device. A second generation head-mounted vibrotactile interface as a sensory augmentation prototype was developed to help users to navigate in such environments. In our experiment, a subject navigates along a wall relying on the haptic or audio feedbacks as navigation commands. Haptic/audio feedback is presented to the subjects according to the information measured from the walls to a set of 12 ultrasound sensors placed around a helmet and a classification algorithm by using multilayer perceptron neural network. Results showed the haptic modality leads to significantly lower route deviation in navigation compared to auditory feedback. Furthermore, the NASA TLX questionnaire showed that subjects reported lower cognitive workload with haptic modality although both modalities were able to navigate the users along the wall

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model

In this paper we present a macroeconomic microfounded framework with heterogeneous agents-individuals, firms, banks-which interact through a decentralized matching process presenting common features across four markets-goods, labor, credit and deposit. We study the dynamics of the model by means of computer simulation. Some macroeconomic properties emerge such as endogenous business cycles, nominal GDP growth, unemployment rate fluctuations, the Phillips curve, leverage cycles and credit constraints, bank defaults and financial instability, and the importance of government as an acyclical sector which stabilize the economy. The model highlights that even extended crises can endogenously emerge. In these cases, the system may remain trapped in a large unemployment status, without the possibility to quickly recover unless an exogenous intervention takes place

A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.The publication of this work was partially supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 284709, a Coordination and Support Action in the Information and Communication Technologies activity area (‘FuturICT’ FET Flagship Pilot Project). Doyne Farmer, Mauro Gallegati and Cars Hommes also acknowledge financial support from the EU-7th framework collaborative project “Complexity Research Initiative for Systemic InstabilitieS (CRISIS)”, grant No. 288501. Cars Hommes acknowledges financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), project “Understanding Financial Instability through Complex Systems”. None of the above are responsible for errors in this paper.Publicad

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Interacting Agents in Finance

Interacting agents in finance represent a behavioural, agent-based approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex adaptive systems consisting of many boundedly rational agents interacting through simple heterogeneous investment strategies, constantly adapting their behaviour in response to new information and strategy performance, and through social interactions. An interacting agent system acts as a noise filter, transforming and amplifying purely random news about economic fundamentals into an aggregate market outcome exhibiting important stylized facts such as unpredictable asset prices and returns, excess volatility, temporary bubbles and sudden crashes, large and persistent trading volume, clustered volatility and long memory

Quantitative association tests of immune responses to antigens of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a study of twins in West Africa.

There is now considerable evidence that host genetic factors are important in determining the outcome of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). The aim of this study was to assess the role of several candidate genes in the variation observed in the immune responses to MTB antigens. In-vitro assays of T-cell proliferation, an in-vivo intradermal delayed hypersensitivity response; cytokine and antibody secretions to several mycobacterial peptide antigens were assessed in healthy, but exposed, West African twins. Candidate gene polymorphisms were typed in the NRAMP1, Vitamin D receptor, IL10, IL4, IL4 receptor and CTLA-4 genes. Variants of the loci IL10 (-1082 G/A), CTLA-4 (49 A/G) and the IL4 receptor (128 A/G) showed significant associations with immune responses to several antigens. T-cell proliferative responses and antibody responses were reduced, TNF-alpha responses were increased for subjects with the CTLA-4 G allele. The T-cell proliferative responses of subjects with IL10 GA and GG genotypes differed significantly. IL4 receptor AG and GG genotypes also showed significant differences in their T-cell proliferative responses to MTB antigens. These results yield a greater understanding of the genetic mechanisms that underlie the immune responses in tuberculosis and have implications for the design of therapeutic interventions

Rational speculative bubbles: an empirical investigation of the London Stock Exchange

In recent years, a sharp divergence of London Stock Exchange equity prices from dividends has been noted. In this paper, we examine whether this divergence can be explained by reference to the existence of a speculative bubble. Three different empirical methodologies are used: variance bounds tests, bubble specification tests, and cointegration tests based on both ex post and ex ante data. We find that, stock prices diverged significantly from their fundamental values during the late 1990's, and that this divergence has all the characteristics of a bubble